At the Gate - Friday
This is the one week during the year I wish I got paid by the hour.
The last few days have started at sunrise and ended after midnight. I don?t answer the phone or the door (except for the pizza guy), as I am parked in front of the computer almost non stop.
The Oaks and Derby Day cards combined are 25 handicapping puzzles, most of the races with large fields and horses coming from a variety of different parts of the country.
It is two of the most time consuming race cards to handicap all year, tougher than even the Breeders? Cup races.
Add to the equation the questionable forecast, and this is going to be a tricky couple of days. The track was sloppy and the turf course listed as ?good? on Thursday, but there is a 60-70% chance of more rain right into Saturday.
There is a chance we will see a sloppy main track by Saturday afternoon, and the turf couse will likely be listed as good to yielding.
The main track at Churchill Downs does dry out very quickly, so even if the track is off in the morning, it could dry up by the late afternoon.
In addition, weathermen seem to be wrong more than they are right, so there is still hope we could see improved conditions as the week moves on.
Post time the next two days at Churchill Downs is 10:30am eastern time, so if you have to work on Friday, make sure you call in sick extra early.
Both my Oaks Day and Derby Day cards are now available. My Saturday report for Belmont Park will be up later this afternoon.
To purchase my full card report for Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Alw $50,200N1X (10:30 et)
#4 Susies Gal 3/1
#6 Satin Thunder 4/1
#1 Syriana's Song 3/1
#5 Luna Vegas 5/2
Analysis: #4 Susies Gal ships in from Gulfstream Park where last out the mare made a mild late rally to finish third in the slop going seven furlongs. The fourth and fifth place finishers exited that race to win next out, taking a Alw-1 and a $20K claimer respectively. There is not much speed in here and this gal should get a good tracking trip just off the pace, which likely will be set by our third choice in here. The one turn mile figures to suit her running style. Romans got off to a good start at the meeting and this mare is a half to stakes winner Bright One ($594K).
#6 Satin Thunder lacked running room on the far turn, split runners and finished fast for second last out on the turf going a mile. It was her first start off a 4 1/2 month break. She broke her maiden over the main track here at today's distance last fall in a sharp effort. Three that finished behind her that day came back to graduate in their next starts. She will appreciate the switch back to the main track for a barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 11 Kentucky Oaks G1 (5:45 et)
#8 Flying Spur 8/1
#6 Rachel Alexander 3/5
#5 Justwhistledixie 5/2
#4 Gabby's Golden Gal 10/1
Analysis: #8 Flying Spur earned a career top last out in her runner up finish behind #6 Rachel Alexandra, 1 3/4 lengths separating the duo who meet again here. "Rachel" came out of the FG Oaks to win again, taking the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park while our top pick has been freshened by Mott. She has a steady strong of works since her last start including a trip over the main track here on 4/27. She has a nice pedigree, by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Lakeway ($965K). She has done her best running on off tracks and might catch a wet track today. She will need to run a career top to win here but she is going to be a decent price while the chalk is going to be sitting at less than even money.
#6 Rachel Alexandra comes in here rising a four race win streak that started over the main track here last fall in the G2 Golden Rod. Last out she won the G2 Fantasy over an overmatched field and she won it with tons left in the tank. She popped a couple of bullet works over the main track here since her last outing and will be very tough to beat here. She owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in early pace numbers. Her only real knock is going to be the short price.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8 / 4,5,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Churchill Downs
R2: #3 Lokomamma 8/1
R3: #9 Sea Gull 8/1
R4: #4 Jump This 10/1
R4: #6 Senor Fuego 8/1
R4: #1 St. Augustine 8/1
R6: #3 Hewitts 15/1
R7: #7 French Kiss 30/1
R8: #11 Diamond Tags 10/1
R11: #4 Gabby?s Golden Gal 10/1
R12: #2 Showboater 8/1
Good luck today!
This is the one week during the year I wish I got paid by the hour.
The last few days have started at sunrise and ended after midnight. I don?t answer the phone or the door (except for the pizza guy), as I am parked in front of the computer almost non stop.
The Oaks and Derby Day cards combined are 25 handicapping puzzles, most of the races with large fields and horses coming from a variety of different parts of the country.
It is two of the most time consuming race cards to handicap all year, tougher than even the Breeders? Cup races.
Add to the equation the questionable forecast, and this is going to be a tricky couple of days. The track was sloppy and the turf course listed as ?good? on Thursday, but there is a 60-70% chance of more rain right into Saturday.
There is a chance we will see a sloppy main track by Saturday afternoon, and the turf couse will likely be listed as good to yielding.
The main track at Churchill Downs does dry out very quickly, so even if the track is off in the morning, it could dry up by the late afternoon.
In addition, weathermen seem to be wrong more than they are right, so there is still hope we could see improved conditions as the week moves on.
Post time the next two days at Churchill Downs is 10:30am eastern time, so if you have to work on Friday, make sure you call in sick extra early.
Both my Oaks Day and Derby Day cards are now available. My Saturday report for Belmont Park will be up later this afternoon.
To purchase my full card report for Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Alw $50,200N1X (10:30 et)
#4 Susies Gal 3/1
#6 Satin Thunder 4/1
#1 Syriana's Song 3/1
#5 Luna Vegas 5/2
Analysis: #4 Susies Gal ships in from Gulfstream Park where last out the mare made a mild late rally to finish third in the slop going seven furlongs. The fourth and fifth place finishers exited that race to win next out, taking a Alw-1 and a $20K claimer respectively. There is not much speed in here and this gal should get a good tracking trip just off the pace, which likely will be set by our third choice in here. The one turn mile figures to suit her running style. Romans got off to a good start at the meeting and this mare is a half to stakes winner Bright One ($594K).
#6 Satin Thunder lacked running room on the far turn, split runners and finished fast for second last out on the turf going a mile. It was her first start off a 4 1/2 month break. She broke her maiden over the main track here at today's distance last fall in a sharp effort. Three that finished behind her that day came back to graduate in their next starts. She will appreciate the switch back to the main track for a barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 11 Kentucky Oaks G1 (5:45 et)
#8 Flying Spur 8/1
#6 Rachel Alexander 3/5
#5 Justwhistledixie 5/2
#4 Gabby's Golden Gal 10/1
Analysis: #8 Flying Spur earned a career top last out in her runner up finish behind #6 Rachel Alexandra, 1 3/4 lengths separating the duo who meet again here. "Rachel" came out of the FG Oaks to win again, taking the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park while our top pick has been freshened by Mott. She has a steady strong of works since her last start including a trip over the main track here on 4/27. She has a nice pedigree, by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Lakeway ($965K). She has done her best running on off tracks and might catch a wet track today. She will need to run a career top to win here but she is going to be a decent price while the chalk is going to be sitting at less than even money.
#6 Rachel Alexandra comes in here rising a four race win streak that started over the main track here last fall in the G2 Golden Rod. Last out she won the G2 Fantasy over an overmatched field and she won it with tons left in the tank. She popped a couple of bullet works over the main track here since her last outing and will be very tough to beat here. She owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in early pace numbers. Her only real knock is going to be the short price.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 4,5,6,8 / 4,5,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Churchill Downs
R2: #3 Lokomamma 8/1
R3: #9 Sea Gull 8/1
R4: #4 Jump This 10/1
R4: #6 Senor Fuego 8/1
R4: #1 St. Augustine 8/1
R6: #3 Hewitts 15/1
R7: #7 French Kiss 30/1
R8: #11 Diamond Tags 10/1
R11: #4 Gabby?s Golden Gal 10/1
R12: #2 Showboater 8/1
Good luck today!
