At the Gate - Saturday
The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby will be run this afternoon, with a field of 20 set to head to the post under the twin spires at Churchill Downs.
The race is the feature on an outstanding 13 race card that gets underway at 10:30am eastern time.
The main question mark is going to be the weather. The main track on Friday started off sloppy but improved as the day went on, and by post time of the Kentucky Oaks the track was labeled as fast.
There is rain in the forecast for Saturday morning, with thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is a 60 percent chance of rain, and as an experienced weather geek, when the weathermen call for a 60% chance of rain, basically what they are saying is, "We don?t know if it is going to rain."
The Kentucky Derby is a great betting race if you have a strong opinion. The race has so many variables, from the lightly raced Dunkirk to Pioneerof the Nile, who has never raced on conventional dirt.
Toss in I Want Revenge, who overcame a nightmare trip to win the Wood Memorial (G1) and General Quarters, trained by 75 year old Tom McCarthy, who has a one horse stable and claimed the colt for just $20,000.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0 for 21 in the Derby and sends out three runners, longshots Advice and Join in the Dance, along with major contender Dunkirk.
Larry Jones, the trainer of Eight Belles, the ill fated filly who ran a gallant second in last year?s Derby, is back with Friesen Fire, who swept the Derby preps in Louisiana.
Godolphin, who has had no success shipping runners from Dubai for the race is sending out a pair of talented runners in Desert Party and Regal Ransom. Could this be the year the long trip finally pays dividends?
Regardless of the outcome, with the large field, there is going to be monster payoffs in the race.
My Kentucky Derby report is now available, and includes selections and analysis for all 13 races on the card.
It is an excellent wagering card overall, one of the best I have seen over the past few years. Toss in a ten race card at Belmont Park, and it is going to be a very busy (and hopefully profitable) day at the windows.
Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000 (1:00 et)
#4 Natural Speed 4/1
#6 Caesar Beware 3/1
#10 Sir Winston 5/2
#1 Sly / #1a Leo 6/1
Analysis: #4 Natural Speed returns off a three month break, his last start a game second at Fair Grounds for this tag. The gelding has been prepping at Fair Hill for the Klesaris barn that is 22% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day break and is a potent barn shipping in here. The gelding is 1 for 4 on turf in his career, that win coming in a $50K stake at the Big M back in '07.
#6 Caesar Beware is returning off nearly a three month break as well. His last start was a win for this tag at Gulfstream Park. The gelding is now 5 for 10 in his career at the distance and has a couple of wins over the turf course here. He has handled ground with some give to it and we might see conditions that are less than firm today.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6,10
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,6,10 / 1,4,5,6,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 10 Turf Classic G1 (4:52 et)
#3 Proudinsky 6/1
#6 Einstein 2/1
#10 Thorn Song 12/1
#4 Court Vision 7/2
Analysis: #3 Proudinsky is coming off back to back wins in G2 company, last out winning the Muniz Jr for the second time in a row at Fair Grounds off a 2 1/2 month break. Two back he took the G2 San Gabriel at Santa Anita, and both of his last two wins have come at today's nine furlong distance. The German bred has run well over ground with some give to it, coming up a neck short of big Brown last year in NJ over "good" ground and winning the Muniz Jr. last year over yielding footing. The six year old has a couple of good looking morning drills over the poly at Keeneland since his last outing and this guy should get a good tracking trip behind what could end up being a lively early pace.
#6 Einstein makes his first start off a two month break and is returning to the turf. The seven year old has shown he can run on any surface, taking the G1 SA 'Cap last out over Pro Ride and he won the G2 Clark her last fall over dirt. However, his best surface is turf and he is a three time G1 winner on grass. He won this race last year and it was contested over a turf course labeled "good." #10 Thorn Song runs well when he gets lose early and handled ground with some give to it. The six year old is 4 for 6 over the turf here and is worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4/1 or better
EX: 3,6 / 3,4,6,10
TRI: 3,6 / 3,4,6,10 / 2,3,4,6,8,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Ft. Marcy S. G3 (5:17 et)
#6 Dancing Forever 2/1
#3 Silver Tree 6/1
#1 Tam Lin 5/2
#5 Cosmonaut 7/2
Analysis: #6 Dancing Forever makes his first start since a third place finish in the BC Turf last fall at Santa Anita. He rebounded with a good effort after a pair of sub par efforts in his two previous starts. Early last year this guy was in good form and has run well over turf with some give to it. The six year old has landed in the exacta in 3 of 4 trips over the turf here.
#3 Silver Tree flattened out late to finish fourth at Tampa, beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Turf Classic, his first go off a four month layoff. The nine year old has lost a step or two from his younger days but when Mott has him right he can still produce efforts good enough to win here. He has run well over less than firm turf in his career and figures to move forward second off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Churchill Downs
R1:#8 Secret Humor 8/1
R3: #1 Five Boroughs 12/1
R3: #8 Gold Schleiger 8/1
R5: #8 Gentleman Chester 8/1
R6: #8 Silver Edition 12/1
R7: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15/1
R7: #8 Lady?s Laughter 15/1
R8: #3 Tizqueena 8/1
R8: #11 Dawn After Dawn 10/1
R8: #5 Zee Zee 8/1
R9: #4 Bear Now 10/1
R10: #10 Thorn Song 12/1
R11: #5 Hold Me Back 15/1
R11: #10 Regal Ransom 30/1
R12: #7 Honchis ?n Ponchis 8/1
R13: #4 Belgrave Square 8/1
R13: #5 Urban Legend 8/1
Belmont Park
R8: #3 Dyna?s Lassie 8/1
R10: #5 Blow Up 12/1
Good luck today!
The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby will be run this afternoon, with a field of 20 set to head to the post under the twin spires at Churchill Downs.
The race is the feature on an outstanding 13 race card that gets underway at 10:30am eastern time.
The main question mark is going to be the weather. The main track on Friday started off sloppy but improved as the day went on, and by post time of the Kentucky Oaks the track was labeled as fast.
There is rain in the forecast for Saturday morning, with thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is a 60 percent chance of rain, and as an experienced weather geek, when the weathermen call for a 60% chance of rain, basically what they are saying is, "We don?t know if it is going to rain."
The Kentucky Derby is a great betting race if you have a strong opinion. The race has so many variables, from the lightly raced Dunkirk to Pioneerof the Nile, who has never raced on conventional dirt.
Toss in I Want Revenge, who overcame a nightmare trip to win the Wood Memorial (G1) and General Quarters, trained by 75 year old Tom McCarthy, who has a one horse stable and claimed the colt for just $20,000.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0 for 21 in the Derby and sends out three runners, longshots Advice and Join in the Dance, along with major contender Dunkirk.
Larry Jones, the trainer of Eight Belles, the ill fated filly who ran a gallant second in last year?s Derby, is back with Friesen Fire, who swept the Derby preps in Louisiana.
Godolphin, who has had no success shipping runners from Dubai for the race is sending out a pair of talented runners in Desert Party and Regal Ransom. Could this be the year the long trip finally pays dividends?
Regardless of the outcome, with the large field, there is going to be monster payoffs in the race.
My Kentucky Derby report is now available, and includes selections and analysis for all 13 races on the card.
It is an excellent wagering card overall, one of the best I have seen over the past few years. Toss in a ten race card at Belmont Park, and it is going to be a very busy (and hopefully profitable) day at the windows.
Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000 (1:00 et)
#4 Natural Speed 4/1
#6 Caesar Beware 3/1
#10 Sir Winston 5/2
#1 Sly / #1a Leo 6/1
Analysis: #4 Natural Speed returns off a three month break, his last start a game second at Fair Grounds for this tag. The gelding has been prepping at Fair Hill for the Klesaris barn that is 22% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day break and is a potent barn shipping in here. The gelding is 1 for 4 on turf in his career, that win coming in a $50K stake at the Big M back in '07.
#6 Caesar Beware is returning off nearly a three month break as well. His last start was a win for this tag at Gulfstream Park. The gelding is now 5 for 10 in his career at the distance and has a couple of wins over the turf course here. He has handled ground with some give to it and we might see conditions that are less than firm today.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6,10
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,6,10 / 1,4,5,6,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 10 Turf Classic G1 (4:52 et)
#3 Proudinsky 6/1
#6 Einstein 2/1
#10 Thorn Song 12/1
#4 Court Vision 7/2
Analysis: #3 Proudinsky is coming off back to back wins in G2 company, last out winning the Muniz Jr for the second time in a row at Fair Grounds off a 2 1/2 month break. Two back he took the G2 San Gabriel at Santa Anita, and both of his last two wins have come at today's nine furlong distance. The German bred has run well over ground with some give to it, coming up a neck short of big Brown last year in NJ over "good" ground and winning the Muniz Jr. last year over yielding footing. The six year old has a couple of good looking morning drills over the poly at Keeneland since his last outing and this guy should get a good tracking trip behind what could end up being a lively early pace.
#6 Einstein makes his first start off a two month break and is returning to the turf. The seven year old has shown he can run on any surface, taking the G1 SA 'Cap last out over Pro Ride and he won the G2 Clark her last fall over dirt. However, his best surface is turf and he is a three time G1 winner on grass. He won this race last year and it was contested over a turf course labeled "good." #10 Thorn Song runs well when he gets lose early and handled ground with some give to it. The six year old is 4 for 6 over the turf here and is worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4/1 or better
EX: 3,6 / 3,4,6,10
TRI: 3,6 / 3,4,6,10 / 2,3,4,6,8,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Ft. Marcy S. G3 (5:17 et)
#6 Dancing Forever 2/1
#3 Silver Tree 6/1
#1 Tam Lin 5/2
#5 Cosmonaut 7/2
Analysis: #6 Dancing Forever makes his first start since a third place finish in the BC Turf last fall at Santa Anita. He rebounded with a good effort after a pair of sub par efforts in his two previous starts. Early last year this guy was in good form and has run well over turf with some give to it. The six year old has landed in the exacta in 3 of 4 trips over the turf here.
#3 Silver Tree flattened out late to finish fourth at Tampa, beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Turf Classic, his first go off a four month layoff. The nine year old has lost a step or two from his younger days but when Mott has him right he can still produce efforts good enough to win here. He has run well over less than firm turf in his career and figures to move forward second off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Churchill Downs
R1:#8 Secret Humor 8/1
R3: #1 Five Boroughs 12/1
R3: #8 Gold Schleiger 8/1
R5: #8 Gentleman Chester 8/1
R6: #8 Silver Edition 12/1
R7: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15/1
R7: #8 Lady?s Laughter 15/1
R8: #3 Tizqueena 8/1
R8: #11 Dawn After Dawn 10/1
R8: #5 Zee Zee 8/1
R9: #4 Bear Now 10/1
R10: #10 Thorn Song 12/1
R11: #5 Hold Me Back 15/1
R11: #10 Regal Ransom 30/1
R12: #7 Honchis ?n Ponchis 8/1
R13: #4 Belgrave Square 8/1
R13: #5 Urban Legend 8/1
Belmont Park
R8: #3 Dyna?s Lassie 8/1
R10: #5 Blow Up 12/1
Good luck today!
