At the Gate - Sunday

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At the Gate - Sunday

Champs Elysees was perhaps the most impressive winner on Saturday, taking the $2 million Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine, but don?t expect to see the six year old in next month?s Breeders? Cup.



There will be no curtain call for the Bobby Frankel trainee. He is going to be retired and sent to the breeding shed after accumulating nearly $3 million in his career from a record of 28-6-8-7.



The son of Danehill was eighth in the Breeders?? Cup Classic last year and certainly has the pedigree to be a good stallion.



Among his sibs are stakes winners Dansili, Banks Hill, Heat Haze, Intercontinental, and Cacique.



The offspring of the remarkable mare Hasili has now accumulated nearly $10 million in earnings.



Dansili is one of the top sires standing in Europe and has a long list of black type runners in his six crops.



Juddmonte Farm?s manager Garrett O'Rourke stated that Champ Elysees would stand in England.



Perhaps Juddmonte will reconsider if the six year old comes out of the race in good order.



There is three weeks until the Breeders? Cup, and he looks like he would be a good fit for either the Classic or the Turf.





Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:



KEE Race 1 Clm $25,000 (1:05 ET)

#7 Silver Chest 9/2

#1 Zubani 3/1

#3 Pure Heaven 5/1

#5 Cat Hop 7/2



Analysis: #7 Silver Chest is returning off a 3 1/2 month break and drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. Last out she was not a threat facing Alw-3 optional claimers on the turf. The winner of that race was Diamond Diva, who beat Alw-3 optional claimers and then ran a close up third in a stake at Belmont. The runner Zaskar has run second in a couple of stakes since. Our top pick drops into an easier spot here and posted a quick work over the poly on Oct. 13. The barn is on the light side with layoff types, hitting at a 6% clip with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.



#1 Zubani invades from Del Park for the Pino barn. Last out the filly made a good late rally to land second against $25K non winners of three or non winners of a race in '09. Note she comes off the turf where she is 0 for 8 and lands on the fake stuff where she has a 9-4-2-0 record. She fits well here despite facing open company and is in a sharp barn.



Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 3/1 or better.

EX: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7

TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:



BEL Race 9 Top Secret S. (5:15 ET)

#4 Turn Away 2/1

#5 Trainee 6/1

#7 J Z Warrior 9/5

#2 American Queen 5/1



Analysis: #4 Turn Away was no match for loose on the lead Tar Heel Mom over a speed favoring racing strip last out against Alw-3 optional claimers. She was a solid second two back in the First Flight (G2) and beat Alw-2 foes three back over a muddy surface. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout with good late pace numbers and the extra furlong here figures to suit. The filly popped a bullet work on Oct. 10 and Ramon sticks for the Frankel barn that seems to be heating up.




#5 Trainee cuts back form nine furlongs for his first start for the Levine barn that is 37% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. This gal has not seen the winners circle since taking a Alw-2 race last summer at Presque Isle, but she likes a wet track and the barn is back on track after a frigid Spa meeting.



Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 9/5 or better.

EX: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7

TRI: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,3,4,5,7





Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:



KEE Race 8 Bryan Station S. G3 (4:35 ET)

#4 Kinsella 3/1

#8 Rescue Squad 8/1

#3 Major Marvel 10/1

#1 El Crespo 4/1



Analysis: #4 Kinsella came off a four month layoff with a smart looking win last out against Alw-1 foes in his third career start. The colt had a tough trip two back over ground labeled as good in his first start against winners and is a toss. This guy was a $2.2 million purchase and looked like a million bucks in his last start.



#8 Rescue Squad made a good late rally to finish third last out against Alw-2 optional claimers in his first go off a 2 1/2 month layoff. The colt was sixth in the Colonial Turf Cup (2) in his lone stakes try and that turned out to be a pretty good group of runners. The colt figures to be fitter second off the bench and should be rolling late.



Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8

TRI: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8



Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.



Keeneland

R4: #12 Storm Seige 20/1

R5: #3 Radical Fringe 8/1

R5: #4 Power Surge 8/1

R8: #8 Rescue Squad 8/1

R8: #3 Major Marvel 10/1

R9: #6 Mt. Fugi 10/1



Belmont Park

R1: #4 Vinnie Van Go 8/1

R3: #5 Qualia 8/1

R4: #6 Laysh Laysh Laysh 10/1

R6: #9 Sticky Wicket 10/1

R7: #7 Anne Margaret 8/1

R10: #2 Chandas / #2b Cantrushperfection 8/1



Good luck today!

 

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HT

I WILL DO MY BEST TO POST PONIES IN BETWEEN POSTING NFL INFO ! :00hour

 

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HORSE RACING TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

HORSE RACING TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 - 1 mile (turf, rail at 15 feet), Purse $36,000, Claiming $50,000, 3-year-olds

Black Kettle - Rough trip last time where he was clearly the best horse in the race; tougher route test on the turf.

Flashmans Papers - Logical chalk due to a big class edge; runs first time for a price tag, better horse on grass.

Long Shot - My Man Sumo

Race 2 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $17,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, 2-year-olds

Tizbalashi - Only entrant that looks like a racehorse in here; I suspect even money will be a pipe dream.

Quillotano - Big improvement first start in the Ricardo Zamora barn; if he improves one step, he has a chance.

Long Shot - Moby Trick

Race 3 - 6 furlongs, Purse $42,000, Optional claiming $25,000, Cal-breds, 3-year-olds and up

Royal Punisher - You may see a $5 pick 3 if the chalk wins; his MSW win was an absolute crusher, worth seeing again.

Star Redeemer - Dead late closer figures to pass those not nailed to the floor; picks up most of the pieces.

Long Shot - Pinstripe Kid

Race 4 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $15,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Smokenomore - Stretches out around 2-turns for the first time; Bill Spawr adds blinkers on and The Mig.

Ry's Not Shy - Another going 2-turns for the first time; is reunited with leading rider Joel Rosario.

Long Shot - Licoricewhip

Race 5 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 15 feet), Purse $45,000, Optional claiming $62,500, 3-year-olds and up

Capture the Call - Like the turn back in distance; when he sprints, he'll rate and close from behind.

Iguazu Falls - Must respect from the powerful Godolphin stable; the barn loves the work of The Mig.

Long Shot - Majestic Diamond

Race 6 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $15,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Ringolevio - Set a fast pace and failed to hold late in last; he looks like the epitome of lone speed in here.

Outside Shot - The Mig is reunited with Bill Spawr; saves all the ground and angles for room in the lane.

Long Shot - Zohan

Race 7 - 1 mile (turf, rail at 15 feet), $60,000 Lure, 3-year-olds and up

Colony - Hated the synthetic surface in last; ran agains top turf horses at NYRA, good upset spot tonight.

Tiz West - Logical chalk is much better on grass than synthetic; figures to be a cavalry charge to the wire.

Long Shot - Knockout Artist

Race 8 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $22,000, Claiming $25,000, Fillies, 3-year-olds

Play Nine - Sharp claim by John Sadler; she adores synthetics, draw a line thru the last grass race.

Sweet Golden Carol - Runs first time for a price tag; woke up at Fairplex with a big effort, turns back today.

Long Shot - Bettyboomboom

Race 9 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 15 feet), Purse $26,000, Claiming $32,000, 3-year-olds and up

Carman - Dead late closer has found a cozy spot for Steve Knapp; should see plenty of early pace to close into.

Surf Town - Like the turn back in distance for the hillside course; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Long Shot - Mt. Orient

Best Bet - Tizbalashi (race 2)

Santa Anita Saturday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 17/4/$16.60; Long Shots, 9/2/$11.80; Best Bet, 1/1/$3.00

Santa Anita Totals - 246/62/$407.40; Long Shots, 125/23/$247.60; Best Bets, 15/8/$34.40

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #8 Soda Pop Kid (3/1) in race 2 at Belmont Park. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Saturday, Miss World ran out at Keeneland. Stats - 152/113/$856.50

 

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Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Manhattan Miss (5th race)


First Race


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1. Puregoodniss 2. Big Grey 3. Lyke a Hurricane

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PUREGOODNISS seems to have built-in radar for wet tracks, having run on good, sloppy and muddy surfaces seven times already including two placings at Belmont; tough task vs. 4-5 Al's Deputy last out. BIG GREY returns for a good layoff barn after big maiden win from off the pace late last winter; has found a first-level allowance where everyone else except VINNIE VAN GO has been defeated in claimers. LYKE A HURRICANE has blown clear leads on fast and wet dirt, and on turf, since beginning current form cycle.

Second Race


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1. Soda Pop Kid 2. James Wilfred 3. Unwritten

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SODA POP KID won a pace duel, then held off a stretch bid from 7-5 favorite to take N1x condition first time over the track; has found a home on conventional dirt. JAMES WILFRED was a big-figure winner first out for current trainer, then suffered from a lack of pace vs. the streaking Cavallo Pazzo (winner of five straight) 13 days later; ran out of ground at Delaware last out. UNWRITTEN beat up on softer starter handicap sprinters at Aqueduct earlier this year, before running in four stakes at Monmouth; may be hard-pressed early by ODE TO ROY, who was purchased after winning three in a row in Florida, but has been idle over five months.

Third Race


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1. Rock Hall Honey 2. Ride On Josephine 3. Star Orchid

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ROCK HALL HONEY argued a strong pace with Grade 3-placed Saarlight in debut last winter; returns for good layoff barn for first start since fading vs. Prioress winner Cat Moves opening week of spring-summer meet. RIDE ON JOSEPHINE has been freshened after five straight in-the-money finishes on turf and dirt; training well locally, notably a bullet half-mile in the mud. STAR ORCHID yet another comebacker, makes first start since rating and fading vs. eventual Grade 1 winner Miss World; mild rally behind freakishly fast Elusive Heat lone dirt try in debut.

Fourth Race


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1. Formidable 2. Primary Witness 3. Mt. Glittermore

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FORMIDABLE ran back to his best dirt figures in the Phoenix against $1 million earner and synthetic track specialist Fatal Bullet; back quickly, looms main speed. PRIMARY WITNESS away since April when an impressive Nn1x winner over Cinnamon Road, who has since come back to win three races and run second in a $75k off-the-turf stake; sharp work Monday. MT. GLITTERMORE won multi-horse speed battle but fell prey to a last-to-first winner, matching career top Beyer last out; freshened, may trip out nicely stalking top pick in the clear.

Fifth Race


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1. Manhattan Miss 2. Saarlandisourland 3. Western Decision

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MANHATTAN MISS came through on the rail, and drew away for a debut win over FIRST FLUTE at Saratoga; down in class and distance after fading in allowance first out for new connections. SAARLANDISOURLAND can be competitive based on maiden win on this track first time in blinkers, and follow-up try vs. open claimers at the Spa; disliked wet tracks last pair. WESTERN DECISION is just 1 for 26 lifetime, but the win came off a class drop here in May; runs the same figures on fast or wet tracks.

Sixth Race


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1. Daily Star 2. By the Sky 3. Eleni's Hope

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If switched to dirt, DAILY STAR ran once here at the spring-summer meet vs. Light Green, subsequently a close second in the Grade 1 Prioress; improved early speed in blinkers turf and dirt at Saratoga, working bullets for return. BY THE SKY drops into a claimer for the first time, and looks like a contender dirt or turf; freshened after chasing a sharp pace in muddy allowance, finished evenly both grass starts going short and long. ELENI'S HOPE was victimized by snail's pace set by front-end winner A Word to the Wise last out; back quickly for new barn, blinkers on.

Seventh Race


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1. Don't U Baby Me 2. Bashoosha 3. Stormandaprayer

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DON'T U BABY ME was off slow, recovered to reach even terms midstretch and settled for place in debut vs. 7-5 choice who was the only experienced runner in the field; likely to go well for leading trainer who's had hot hand with 2-year-olds. BASHOOSHA shook loose after an alert break but faltered deep stretch when unveiled on muddy track upstate; $575k filly may benefit from that experience. STORMANDAPRAYER freshened after leading at pace call all three starts during the summer including Schuylerville vs. Hot Dixie Chick, who came back to take Spinaway as much best; bullet 5fs last Sunday.

Eighth Race


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1. Patience Drive 2. Gran Appeal 3. Starship Angel

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If switched to dirt, PATIENCE DRIVE rallied wide and ran down the second choice for maiden win in sloppy off-the-turfer second time on this circuit for Seth Benzel; okay from an outside post again, tough right back if she gets in. On turf, Benzel may still have the one to beat in GRAN APPEAL, who made up better than a dozen lengths to be second best on a yielding course last out. STARSHIP ANGEL had a useful tightener sprinting off a seven-week absence; aluminum pad off.

Ninth Race


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1. Turn Away 2. J Z Warrior 3. American Queen

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TURN AWAY has won two of three starts at Belmont, the lone defeat a close third in the Grade 2 First Flight; goes well fresh, rates edge at 7f over J Z WARRIOR. The latter has won stakes at Belmont each of the past two years going 6fs, including off-turf Glowing Honor with similar spacing between starts in June; hasn't been this distance since '08 Test. AMERICAN QUEEN had a productive summer campaign winning three of four starts, though she failed to fire vs. J Z Warrior at Saratoga.

Tenth Race


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1. Dukinfield 2. Everybodywantsone 3. Little Alex

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DUKINFIELD raced once on turf here earlier this year, and it was a tough spot vs. Courageous Cat, who has since won a couple stakes; fast work Tuesday suggests he remains a threat if Sunday's nightcap comes off the grass. EVERYBODYWANTSONE showed improved speed with blinkers on last out; showed the ability to handle dirt at Penn National before coming to New York. LITTLE ALEX found best stride belatedly when beaten less than two lengths and claimed from first start on this circuit; drops back to an easier spot, blew out nicely Wednesday.

 

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Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Sunday, Oct. 18

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Sunday, Oct. 18

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Sunday, Oct. 18
What to Watch for Today: The Bryan Station Stakes, a race that has launched 3-year-olds like Cowboy Cal and Kip Deville in recent years, will be renewed for the ninth time this afternoon. A turf course which played to deep closers opening week seems to be leveled out this week as horses with front-end pace have held their own on Friday and Saturday.

Weather: Sunny skies are welcome to the party Sunday with a high temperature expected to reach the upper 40s. The turf course should still have some give to it after a damp week, but certainly be in its best shape of the entire racing week.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we?ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

The Sunday action unveils in Race 1 with a mid-level claiming race for a $25,000 price tag. Placing horses in the proper race is a key training trait, and in mid-level claimers ($20,000-$32,000), nobody has been better at Keeneland than Merrill Scherer. He?s won a record 6 races at these class levels in the Poly era, including Miss Redoubled in Saturday?s second race. Give extra consideration to his charge, Cat Hop, in the opener.

Horses making a surface change have not had much success at the lower $10,000 claiming level as we see in Race 2. In fact, of the 18 fall-meet races for $10,000 claimers to date, 14 have been won by horses who raced on an all-weather surface last time (3 turf, 1 dirt). Presque Isle Downs runners have won 4 of these races, including El Indy already this meeting, trailing only the 6 winners from Turfway.

Beware Rusty Arnold?s Step Out Smartly in Race 3. Not only is the barn red-hot early in this 2009 Keeneland fall meeting, but Arnold has won no less than 5 allowance races at 7 furlongs on the Polytrack all-time. Only Todd Pletcher (4), Philip Sims (3) and Kiaran McLaughlin (3) have more than 2 wins in this situation.

Front-running speed has been particularly strong in basement-level ($7,500) claiming races at 6 furlongs, so keep that in mind as you look at Race 4. Two-thirds of such races held to date on Polytrack have been won by the half-mile leader.

Of trainer Wayne Catalano?s 7 all-time wins on the Keeneland Polytrack, 6 have been in the claiming ranks. He drops Truelyonbroadway out of the Arlington allowance ranks in Race 5 this afternoon. Interestingly, tough, only 1 of Catalano?s Keeneland Poly winners came off an all-weather track prep. This is good of a betting race as you?ll see anywhere in the country all year long. Veteran, talented horses, plenty of class, all in good form, and a big field of 11.

The public has had a good hold of 1-1/2 miles turf races historically with an average winner of just 4.4-to-1 odds. Race 6 might not be the best place to dig too deeply into the price pool. Of the last 26 such races held at Keeneland, 22 have been won by horses who raced on turf last time out. Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out 2 runners here (Phola and Floating Heart). Note Pletcher has won 3 races at 1-1/2 miles on turf at Keeneland since the ?06 fall, trailing only Jonathan Sheppard (4).

Of the first 14 route races at 1-1/16 miles on Poly this fall meeting, 8 of them have been won by horses moving from turf-to-Polytrack. That bodes well for Avenstoke and Here Comes Ben in Race 7 this afternoon.

Feature Race Play: Three-year-old turf milers battle in today?s Race 8 main event, the G3 $125,000 Bryan Station. Give extra consideration to those horses with inside post positions, as 11 of the 18 turf mile stakes winners at Keeneland since the 2006 fall meeting have been drawn in posts 1-4.

None of the eight entries has won a race over the Keeneland turf to date, and there are few pedigree points that might give clues as to which might like it. A.P. Indy, sire of El Crespo, has produced 3 Kee turf winners since the ?06 fall meeting, as has Dynaformer, sire of Rescue Squad. A hidden nugget might be with Major Marvel, the Maryland invader with tons of speed. His damsire, Royal Academy, has been extremely proficient on this turf course, producing 4 winners as a sire in recent years.

Likely favorite El Crespo spots the field 6 pounds apiece and shortens to a one-mile distance that will be a real challenge for him given his proficiency at longer trips.

Todd Pletcher leads all trainers with 6 Keeneland turf stakes wins since the ?06 fall meeting (tied with Jonathan Sheppard), and he saddles Kinsella in the Bryan Station. While Kinsella is short on experience, I do like that he?s been battling older horses, gets some pace to run at and has been able to overcome some bad post positions in his wins. He?s well-drawn today. But I?m going to swing with the price play, Major Marvel, to pull the upset with Kinsella looming the late danger in a tough call.

 

[Lumi]

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 18

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 18

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 18
10/18/2009
1st Race
ZUBANI (#1) comes off of a couple of decent efforts on the turf and moves back to the poly for this one. All four of her career wins have come on the synthetic surfaces and she looks best in the opener. PURE HEAVEN (#3) has had a solid year and figures to be the one to beat. SILVER CHEST (#7) drops in class and fits with these.

2nd Race
POPSICLE TOES (#5) has won three of her last four and will be tough to beat in this $10,000 claiming test. SEEKING REASON (#8) has shown big improvement in her last two and if she continues to move forward she could be dangerous. WEDDING DIAMOND (#10) just missed last out and is a contender.

3rd Race
ADRRHYTHM (#3) is a stakes winner of over $600,000 who is training sharply for her first race back after a three month layoff. She likes this track and rates the edge in a well-matched allowance race. TIZ TO DREAM (#6) is undefeated in three starts over the Keeneland Polytrack and will be running at the end. UNSPOKEN WORD (#4) was sharp at Turfway earlier this year and a return to that form makes her dangerous.

4th Race
KARACUDA (#2) takes a big class drop, which is never a good sign, but anything close to her best would make her a winner at this level. ONE THAT GOT AWAY (#6) comes off back-to-back wins at this level and is the one to beat. CORRINE (#7) rates a shot.

5th Race
MY BEST PAL RED (#7) has finished in the money in 12 straight races and looks like the controlling speed in here. If speed is holding, he will be very tough to catch this afternoon. ATTICUS KRISTY (#6) is an 8-year-old veteran who is still running extremely well. He prefers the turf but is capable of the Polytrack and is always dangerous. TRUELYONBROADWAY (#1) will be running at the end and can?t be overlooked.

6th Race
SHAKE THE MOON (#7) has been a disappointment since coming to the U.S. but is back at her favorite distance of 1 ? miles today. Look for her to regain her winning ways for trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Julien Leparoux. THE BEST DAY EVER (#1) drops back into the allowance ranks after three straight attempts against graded stakes company. She is bred to handle the added distance and is the one to beat. WINE AND DYNE (#8) is a contender.

7th Race
BLUE WHISTLER (#5) is another solid runner from the barn of trainer Rusty Arnold. He ran evenly against tougher at Saratoga last out and looks best with jockey James Graham picking up the mount today. HERE COMES BEN (#7) has never been worse than fourth and is training well over the Keeneland strip. BLACKBERRY ROAD (#3) has been a huge disappointment after a promising early campaign but figures to run well in this one.

8th Race ? Bryan Station (G3)
KINSELLA (#4) was a $2.2 million yearling purchase who didn?t start as a 2-year-old but has won two of three races this year. He faces stakes runners for the first time today but he has the looks of an improving runner and trainer Todd Pletcher figures to have him ready today. GET STORMY (#6) is a speedy runner who comes off back-to-back scores. He is the one to catch. EL CRESPO (#1) is the definite class in here but may prefer more distance.

9th Race
AMERICAN LION (#9) closed well to finish second in his debut and has been training very well over the Keeneland Polytrack. Look for him to break his maiden for Eoin Harty and trainer Julien Leparoux. EXXEL (#2) has been working in company with older stablemate Blue Whistler and may be ready to fire at first asking. KEY LARGO (#7) has to be considered.

 

[Lumi]

Bill Howard

Bill Howard

Bryan Station-G3 Analysis
10/18/2009
RESCUE SQUAD closed from 14 lengths back to be 3rd last time out at Belmont in an N2X in his first race since competing in the Colonial Cup Turf-G2 in June; the pace should set up well for his late kick today and while the mile is a tad short of his optimum distance, feel the small field and quick pace will allow him to get up in time. EL CRESPO was a strong 2nd in the Saranac-G2 at 19-1 last time out at Saratoga and will be the one to catch in the stretch today after he makes his move around the far t utn; he worked a sharp half-mile for this on the KEE poly on Oct. 12. GET STORMY will be seeking his 3rd consecutive wire job win and 2nd in a stakes after stealing the Lure at Saratoga in August at the expense of MIKOSHI. The later will keep the former honest on the front end today; note each of them have yet to be off the board going a mile on turf.

Bakn/09roll Bets 10/18
10/18/2009
$25 Player:

$2 Win/place/show on Corrine in race 4 cost: $6
$1 DailyDouble in races 8 & 9 cost: $4
Race 8--Rescue Squad, El Crespo
Race 9--American Lion, Key Largo

$1 Pick 3 in races 7-8-9 cost: $8
7--Blackberry Road, Avenstoke
8--Rescue Squad, El Crespo
9--American Lion, Key Largo

$1 Exacta box in race 6 cost: $6
Cavan, Thunder, Shake the Moon, Wine and Dyne
total cost: $24

$50 Players use top bets plus:
10-cent Superfecta box in race 5 cost: $12
Truelyonbroadway, My Best Pal Red, Atticus Kristy, Power Surge and Stradivinsky

$2 Win/place/show on Blackberry Road in race 7 cost: $6

50-cent Trifecta in race 8 cost: $6
El Crespo, Mikoshi, Rescue Squad, Get Stormy
total cost: $48

100 Players use top bets plus:
$2 Pick Six
Race 4--Corrine, Once is Enough
Race 5--Trueylonbroadway
Race 6--Cavan Thunder, Shake the Moon, Wine and Dyne
Race 7--Blackberry Road
Race 8--Rescue Squad
Race 9--American Lion, Key Largo, Truchan, Positive Split

cost: $48

 

[Lumi]

Kim Nelson's Picks for Sunday, October 18

Kim Nelson's Picks for Sunday, October 18

Kim Nelson's Picks for Sunday, October 18
10/18/2009
A competitive field of eight 3 year olds gather for the Grade 3 Bryan Station. The event is contested at 1 mile over the grass course. The race sets up with plenty of early speed. The soft going over the turf has proven to give closers a bit of an advantage. Rescue Squad, from the McGaughey barn, looks to be the horse with that closing advantage. A fairly consistent runner by Dyanformer keeps his regular rider Prado in the irons. Another with a strong closing stride is Kinsella from the Pletcher barn. While the colt is lightly raced he was an impressive alowance winner last out. Mikoshi has only missed one check in 7 starts this year and looks like a threat.

Kim Nelson's Picks for Sunday, October 18
10/18/2009
$25 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Zubani, Pure Heaven
2nd Beau's Valentine, Popsicle Toes
Cost $8

Race 2
$2 across the board
Beau's Valentine
Cost $6

Race 4
.50 Trifecta Box
Karacuda, Once Is Enough, On That Got Away
Cost $3

Race 5
.10 Superfecta
Truelyonbroadway, Cya Later Bert, My Best Pal Red, Atticus Kristy
Cost $2.40

Race 8
$5 to win
Rescue Squad
Cost $5

$83 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Zubani, Pure Heaven
2nd Beau's Valentine, Popsicle Toes
Cost $8

Race 2
$5 to win an place
Beau's Valentine
Cost $10

Race 4
.50 Trifecta Box
Karacuda, Once Is Enough, On That Got Away, Alpha Tammy
Cost $6

Race 5
.10 Superfecta
Truelyonbroadway, Cya Later Bert, My Best Pal Red, Atticus Kristy, Radical Fringe
Cost $12

Race 6
$1 Pick 4
6th Shake the Moon, Wine and Dine
7th Blue Whistler
8th Rescue Squad, Kinsella, Mikoshi
9th American Lion, Truchan, Positive Split, Key Largo
Cost $24

Race 7
$1 Trifecta Box
Blue Whistler, Avenstoke, Blackberry Road
Cost $6

Race 8
$5 to win
Rescue Squad
Cost $5

Race 9
.10 Superfecta
American Lion, Truchan, Positive Split, Key Largo, Roman Racer
Cost $12

 

[Lumi]

Handicapper's Consensushttp://www.keeneland.com/racing/frames/consensus.aspx

 

[Lumi]

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009
Sunday?s early daily double isn?t terribly enticing. In the first race, #2 My Man Sumo is razor sharp while moving up in class and if he?s ignored on the front end, the Mullins-trained gelding could dominate from gate to wire in his first try on grass. His recent numbers are strong and Gomez has won with him in the past. #5 Flashman?s Papers was overmatched in the Morvich Stakes last month but tries claimers for the first time in his first start for Cecil and Bejarano should have him within striking range throughout. In the second race, #5 Tizbalashi is even money on the morning line in a rather empty field following an okay debut try at Del Mar vs. tougher. He should win, but obviously offers no value.

#4 Royal Punisher is 4/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper in the third race. A very impressive maiden winner at Hollywood Park in July, the Hofmans-trained gelding was ambitiously placed in his next start in the Real Good Deal Stakes at Del Mar and faded after pressing the pace in a very hot race. Back with first level allowance foes and training super, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus should out class this field. If you?re looking for an exacta partner, the late-running sprinter #5 Star Redeemer should be able to pick up the pieces to complete what should be a very short priced payout.

The fourth race ushers in the Pick-6 and the two main contenders would appear to be #1 Afleet Hopetown and #7 Ry?s Not Shy. Afleet Hopetown ran well at the level on two occasions at Del Mar and won?t have to improve much at all to figure right there in this soft affair., Ry?s Not Shy stretches out for O?Neill, switches to Rosario, and is strictly the one to beat.

The fifth race is a highly competitive downhill turf sprint and any number of these could win it with their best effort. #7 Iguazu Falls makes his local debut after a pair of promising runs in New York for Godolphin, and if he takes to the course the Pivotal gelding could be hard to handle. A listed stakes winner at Epsom Downs last year, he?s trained like a fairly classy sort and should be within striking range throughout. He?s a ?must use? in the exotics. You may want to use a few others in your rolling exotics, including #2 Euroglide (likes course, dangerous from off the pace); #3 Shadow of Illinois (genuine and consistent); and #9 Majestic Diamond (should be a strong late factor under Blanc).

The sixth race is a split of the fourth event and only has two worth using in your rolling exotics, #1 Outside Shot and #5 Ringolevio. Outside Shot should enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail, is a solid fit on speed figures, and should be prominent throughout. Ringolevio made the running but was run over late (he settled for second) a couple of weeks ago over this track and with only mild improvement seems strictly the one to beat.

The Lure Stakes goes as the seventh race and should be ideally suited for #1 Blue Chagall, and he?ll probably have to beat the same horse he just wore down at Del Mar, #4 Gothic Samurai. Blue Chagall has been looking good in the morning for Julio and should be geared up for another big try in his first outing since August. #4 Gothic Samurai will take them as far as he can and could be tough to catch if Stra can get him to relax early on the front end. #5 Tiz West closed a gap without threatening in the Morvich and should be set to stretch out and fire another big shot today.

In the eighth race, #2 Bettyboomboom and #5`Steam Iron should control this race. They actually finished one-two in a common affair Sept. 11 at Fairplex Park and both have shown a liking for the Pro Side surface in the past. There?s very little zip in here and Bettyboomboom could find herself on or near the lead. Steam Iron is back sprinting where she?s most comfortable and beat her main rival on the square last month at Pomona.

We?ll use two in our rolling exotics too finish out the week in the ninth race. #1 Mt. Orient was a game winner up north and looks like the controlling speed from the good rail post. If he can sneak away early, he may never look back. #8 Surf Town handles any surface and is more than good enough on his best day to handle this assignment.

 

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OAK TREE DRF

 

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Oak Tree House Handicap

 

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Cal Horse Best Bet

Cal Horse Best Bet

Cal Horse Best Bet



Rick Harris has been at the helm of CALHORSE for about 8 years now. His selection sheet is available on the web at www.calhorse.com and at select live meets. The daily selection sheet is comprised of the selections from the track on the Southern California circuit as well as the selections for the Northern California track that it is season and any special races of national interest. The betting strategy section is designed to find VALUE on that day's racing card.



RACE 7 - PICK THREE
Blue Chagall - Gothic Samurai - Tiz West
with
Play Nine - Sweet Golden Carol - Steam Iron
with
Surf Town - Carmen

1-4-5 / 8-1-5 / 8-6

 

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ELLIS STARR

ELLIS STARR

Race #8 - Rating = 2
#8 Play Nine - Fair odds 2/1
#5 Steam Iron - Fair odds 2/1
#2 Bettyboomboom - Fair odds 3/1

Exacta: Box 2,5,8

Play Nine ran on from 10th to 4th in a sprint last out versus tougher 2 off the Sadler claim, having won off the claim against 3 year olds only at this claiming level prior to that. Moving back to 3 year olds only and with a good outside post for the trip as well as with that 8/29 effort potentially a winning one here, Play Nine gets top billing of three to win this race.

Steam Iron won two back then led late and finished 2nd last out, two before that winning at this level in a sprint at Del Mar. With a very strong best of 31 four furlong workout here at Santa Anita following her fine runner-up effort last out Steam Iron must be considered to be a part f the exacta for the 6th time in her 11th race of the year.

Bettyboomboom won smartly two back at Del Mar then ran 2nd to Steam Iron last out at Fairplex, Quinonez riding her to those 2 ?A? efforts and again today, the filly with improving to do 3rd after 4 months off and so the one to round out our trio of contenders for win bets and for the exacta

 

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Today's Racing Digest

 

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Joe Takach

Joe Takach

RACE 3----STAR REDEEMER (best bet)
Sadler 3 yo colt stands out like a sore thumb against these misfits. Bejarano remounts.

 

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Post experts pick the winners

 

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Belmont analysis

Belmont analysis

Belmont analysis

Today's analysis.

1. 6 1/2 fur; $43,000; alw; 3up

LYKE A HURRICANE had the lead and tired to second when adding blinkers in off-the-turf races in last two starts. PUREGOODNISS chased the pace and finished fourth in the slop. VINNIE VAN GO ran evenly in the slop in most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Dontstealmyland(L),118 J Chavez 1-6-6 Metivier 20-1
2 Big Grey(L),117 E Castro 1-5-x Brown 2-1
3 Lyke a Hurricane(L),120 R Dominguez 2-2-5 Duggan 3-1
4 Vinnie Van Go(L),117 R Maragh 7-3-4 Contessa 8-1
5 Karakorum On Black(L),117 S Morales 4-4-5 Odintz 15-1
6 Puregoodniss(L),117 C Velasquez 4-2-5 JImperio 7-2
7 Captain Sword(L),120 J Bermudez 3-8-3 Arroyo 12-1
8 Four Star General(L),117 M Luzzi 7-1-8 Lostritto 10-1
9 Five Boroughs(L),120 R Fuentes 4-6-4 Hull 20-1

2. 6 fur; $42,000; hdcp; 3up

SODA POP KID returns to starter allowance while seeking his third consecutive victory. UNWRITTEN set the pace and tired to fourth as favorite in state-bred stakes at Monmouth. DUKES FLYING TIGER tired to finish third in first start for new barn.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 African King(L),114 C Velasquez 1-2-1 Balsamo 8-1
3 Unwritten(L),124 R Dominguez 4-3-6 Volk 4-1
4 Ode to Roy(L),116 M Luzzi 1-1-1 Parisella 9-2
5 Dukes Flying Tiger(L),121 E Castro 3-4-3 Lake 8-1
6 James Wilfred(L),117 D Cohen 3-3-1 SKlesaris 7-2
1 a-Missile Motor(L),115 M Studart 6-1-9 Chatterpaul 10-1
7 Strummer(L),113 S Morales 6-6-2 Sciacca 20-1
8 Soda Pop Kid(L),119 J Velazquez 1-1-2 Levine 3-1
1A a-Clemens(L),112 R Maragh 1-3-1 Chatterpaul 10-1

3. 6 fur; $44,000; mdn; 3up(f)

ROCK HALL HONEY makes first start since tiring to fourth as the favorite in April. STAR ORCHID goes turf to dirt and cuts back to sprint for first start since July. AIR SPACE races with Lasix and working bullets for career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Smart Woman,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Parisella 8-1
2 Air Space,120 C Velasquez x-x-x Violette 5-1
3 Zoomster,120 J Espinoza x-x-x PKelly 15-1
4 Rock Hall Honey(L),120 J Velazquez 4-3-x Terranova 5-2
5 Qualia,120 R Maragh x-x-x Ribaudo 8-1
6 Ride On Josephine(L),120 M Luzzi 3-2-3 Romans 2-1
7 Star Orchid(L),120 J Bravo 7-3-3 Asmussen 5-1

4. 7 fur; $47,000; alw; 3up

FORMIDABLE drops in class and stretches out after being beaten two lengths in Grade 3 Phoenix. MT. GLITTERMORE makes local debut after finishing second at this distance. PRI MARY WITNESS comes in with a bullet work for first start since winning in April.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Bb Livermore(L),120 C Goberdhan 7-4-7 Parboo 30-1
2 Primary Witness(L),117 J Bravo 1-4-5 Hennig 2-1
3 Formidable(L),120 R Maragh 5-2-3 AJerkens 1-1
4 Mt. Glittermore(L),120 R Dominguez 2-4-1 Nunley 5-1
5 Mr. Unstoppable(L),120 R Fuentes 5-2-2 Reynolds 8-1
6 Laysh Laysh Laysh(L),120 C Velasquez 1-8-3 Dutrow 10-1

5. 6 fur; $18,000; clm($15,000); 3up(f)

MANHATTAN MISS drops in class for return to sprint after tiring badly for new barn. JUDGE'S PRIDE drops in class after tiring to second on yielding turf. JET ON HOME closed to finish third when making first start since March.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Sounds Tacky(L),120 N Vigil 8-7-9 Mena 30-1
2 Western Decision(L),120 C Goberdhan 7-7-6 Parboo 12-1
3 Jet On Home(L),117 C Velasquez 3-6-1 Domino 4-1
4 Manhattan Miss(L),120 R Maragh 8-1-x Contessa 2-1
5 First Flute(L),120 J Espinoza 1-3-2 Callejas 6-1
6 Small Potatoes(L),120 E Castro 10-6-7 Lostritto 20-1
7 Saarlandisourland(L),117 J Velazquez 5-6-3 O'Brien 5-2
8 Judge's Pride(L),120 R Rodriguez 3-7-7 DiPrima 6-1

6. 7 fur(T); $22,000; clm($25,000); 3up(f)

UNVEIL THE MASK drops in class after tiring in allowance in first start for new barn. BY THE SKY drops in class after tiring in the mud in first start since breaking maiden. GOLDEN ARTEMIS set the pace and tired to second in an off-the-turf race.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Eleni's Hope(L),118 J Velazquez 8-3-4 JImperio 10-1
2 Our Montana Dream(L),121 R Rodriguez 12-2-8 Lotruglio 20-1
3 Golden Artemis(L),118 R Dominguez 2-7-7 Contessa 7-2
4 Hello Gold(L),121 J Chavez 2-8-8 D'Amelio 8-1
5 Justinline(L),121 J Samyn 10-7-5 Cedano 20-1
6 Flying Sappho(L),121 E Castro 7-3-2 Corrao 8-1
7 By the Sky(L),118 C Velasquez 5-1-3 Tagg 6-1
8 Hookin the Goods(L),118 R Fuentes 10-6-9 Pringle 30-1
9 Sticky Wicket(L),118 R Maragh 2-8-3 Lerman 10-1
10 Unveil the Mask(L),118 M Luzzi 6-4-8 Rice 2-1
11 Daily Star(L),118 No Rider 9-6-5 Terranova 5-1
12 Vaughndidit(L),118 M Luzzi 1-7-7 Barbara 10-1
13 Code Legal(L),118 R Dominguez 2-3-8 Orseno 6-1

7. 5 ? fur; $43,000; mdn; 2YO(f)

STORMANDAPRAYER comes in with a bullet work after tiring to second as the favorite. DON'T U BABY ME drew rail after finishing second this distance in career debut at Monmouth. BASHOOSHA set the pace and tired to third in career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Don't U Baby Me(L),120 J Velazquez 2-x-x Pletcher 5-2
2 Marat Alayam,120 C Velasquez x-x-x Zito 8-1
3 Wild News,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Parisella 10-1
4 Comic Marvel,120 J Chavez x-x-x Frankel 12-1
5 Somalia,120 S Morales x-x-x Sciacca 20-1
6 Bashoosha(L),120 M Luzzi 3-x-x Mclaughlin 3-1
7 Anne Margaret(L),120 J Bravo 6-3-x Mott 8-1
8 Stormandaprayer(L),120 E Castro 2-4-3 Toner 4-1
9 Superior Selection,120 R Maragh x-x-x AJerkens 12-1

8. 1 1/16 miles(T); $46,000; alw; 3up(f)

GRAN APPEAL closed to finish second in yielding turf last out. Entrymate PATIENCE DRIVE broke maiden in an off-the-turf race. STONE LEGACY finished second in an off-the-turf race going longer. STARSHIP ANGEL pressed the pace and tired in most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
3 I'm Your Lady(L),120 J Chavez 1-1-2 CJohnson 10-1
4 Ain't Love Grand(L),117 C Velasquez 3-4-4 RDutrow 6-1
5 McVictory(L),117 J Bravo 7-1-9 Barbara 12-1
6 Shine Softly(L),120 R Dominguez 5-1-3 Toner 4-1
1 a-Classical Fashion(L),123 M Luzzi 6-1-2 Contessa 5-1
7 Paracaidas(L),120 J Velazquez 5-1-2 Pletcher 6-1
8 Starship Angel(L),117 A Napravnik 5-2-1 Mclaughlin 6-1
2 b-Gran Appeal(L),117 R Maragh 2-5-2 Benzel 5-2
1A a-Nedjma(L),120 D Cohen 4-1-5 Contessa 5-1
9 Stone Legacy(L),117 R Maragh 2-3-3 Lukas 4-1
10 Lisa B(L),120 No Rider 7-8-3 PKelly 15-1
2B b-Patience Drive(L),117 J Velazquez 1-2-2 Benzel 5-2
11 Classofsixtythree(L),117 No Rider 7-1-3 Sciacca 8-1

9. 7 fur; $65,000; 3up(f) THE TOP SECRET

J Z WARRIOR stretches out after finishing second by a nose at Saratoga in restricted stakes. AMERICAN QUEEN came off the pace to win as favorite while going shorter. TURN AWAY comes in with a bullet work after finishing second as favorite.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Are We Dreamin(L),121 R Maragh 4-5-10 Persaud 12-1
2 American Queen(L),121 R Alvarado 1-5-1 Iwinski 5-1
3 Privacy(L),120 J Velazquez 3-1-5 Lerman 15-1
4 Turn Away(L),120 R Dominguez 2-3-1 Frankel 2-1
5 Trainee(L),121 C Velasquez 4-3-2 Levine 6-1
6 Ocean Goddess(L),120 J Espinoza 5-1-2 Turner 10-1
7 J Z Warrior(L),121 J Bravo 2-2-2 Mott 9-5

10. 6 fur(T); $19,000; mdn clm($25,000); 3up

DUKINFIELD finished second in first start for a tag. Entrymate CHEROKEE BULL drops in class after running evenly. DIXIE FROLIC tired badly on yielding turf in grass debut. EVERY BODYWANTSONE had the lead and tired to fourth going longer. LITTLE ALEX finished third in last start for a tag.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
3 Cromwell Alley(L),120 J Bravo 6-6-x Hills 12-1
4 Don't You Linger(L),120 R Rodriguez 8-8-4 Feron 15-1
5 Little Alex,120 R Dominguez 9-3-8 DiPrima 6-1
6 Everybodywantsone(L),120 J Espinoza 4-4-2 Ritvo 4-1
1 a-Dukinfield(L),122 C Velasquez 2-4-4 Alexander 9-5
7 Coach Fruscio(L),120 M Luzzi 4-2-5 Levine 12-1
8 Smarteralex(L),122 N Vigil 8-4-7 Cedano 20-1
2 b-Chandas(L),120 R Maragh 8-9-x Asmussen 8-1
2B b-Cantrushperfection(L),120 R Maragh 9-7-3 Asmussen 8-1
9 Out of Spite(L),120 D Amiss 11-2-6 Ryan 20-1
10 Love of Life(L),120 R Fuentes 3-3-4 Lotruglio 8-1
11 King's Fleet(L),122 E Castro 3-2-2 Peitz 7-2
12 Dixie Frolic(L),120 J Velazquez 8-6-9 Pletcher 3-1
1A a-Cherokee Bull(L),120 No Rider 7-5-6 Alexander 9-5

 

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Through the binocs

Track was muddy, harrowed for first four races, upgraded to good for fifth; no turf racing again; 29 scratches.

Track condition came into play in third race, but not involving race itself. Down the backside, Stephen's Even, Mike Luzzi up, drifted out a bit just as Why Because drifted in under Ramon Dominguez. The two horses bumped hard, throwing Luzzi off-balance. He tried to hang on, but a few strides later slipped off and fell, bouncing along the track like a rag doll. Luckily, there were no other horses behind him.

Neither was the ambulance that usually trails the field, as director of racing surfaces Glen Kozak asked the driver not to follow the horses, standard procedure when the track is wet. Instead, the ambulance was parked behind a gate on the outer rail, which was inadvertently locked. By the time the ambulance got to Luzzi, who miraculously was not injured, he was already up and walking.

This did not sit well with Jockeys' Guild president John Velazquez, who complained that if Luzzi had been seriously injured, the ambulance delay could have been disastrous. Luzzi, however, was nonplussed: "It's a living," he said.

SECOND RACE: It took a while, but Phipps Stable's Colors Flying, a 3-year-old colt, finally ran to his pedigree. A son of A.P. Indy out of champion Storm Flag Flying (herself a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner My Flag out of unbeaten champion Personal Ensign), Colors Flying made belated debut in May finishing third for Shug McGaughey, then ran sixth and fourth. Off at 3-2 here going mile under John Velazquez, he settled in well off the early pace set by Buddy's Song, Ramon Dominguez up, 4-5 favorite coupled with Sven Diesel for Bruce Levine. Buddy's Song opened daylight heading into the far turn, still was clear in front top of stretch, but Colors Flying came with bold rally wide around turn, collared Buddy's Song midstretch to take command and kick clear.

THIRD RACE: After 4-5 favorite Stephen's Even unseated Luzzi, the filly charged right through the field while hugging the rail to "win" going away. In race where four of the seven riders were seven-pound apprentices, double bug boy Kris Fox, 26, recently arrived from Thistledown, split horses from off pace to score on 10-1 Maggie's Miracle.

FOURTH RACE: Biker Boy, a 4-year-old colt making his second start back off a five-month layoff for Nick Zito, clearly has some physical issues, as this was just his eighth start with long gaps between several of them. But he also was clearly the one to beat, with four straight daylight scores over the past two years followed by fourth-place finish in Carter Handicap behind Kodiak Kowboy and Fabulous Strike. Favored at 3-5 under John Velazquez in field of five going mile, he stalked pace set by 33-1 Unbridled Danger, launched his bid outside around turn to take lead top of stretch, then opened daylight and was under strong urging down stretch to hold off late runs of Honour Devil and Gold Trippi.

NINTH RACE: Always nice to see Forego's yellow-and-black Lazy F Ranch colors in the Belmont winner's circle again. Dream Again, an older half-brother to this year's Hopeful winner, Dublin, out of top-class racemare Classy Mirage, was racing with aluminum pads on again, but that didn't stop him as he charged from worst to first under Cornelio Velasquez to take command midstretch and win going away at 2-1.