8/26-9/1 11-11 (+163)
9/2-9/9 0-0 ( )
STD 60-62 (-1573)
Today: some quality dogs at a good price. I believe these plays have a positive expectation over the long term based on how the lines convert to odds (%) and how the team has faired against similar matchups.
For example, at -185, Seattle needs to hit 65% of the time to have positive expection over the long term. Based on my records in similar matchups and on how I rate the teams, they are hitting at 41%...negative expection. Min is a great team and at +170 they need to hit 37% to be profitable at this price. I have them hitting 40% of the time in this type of matchup....so the correct play is on Minnesota. The result of one individual game is not as important as the long term.
Min (+170) 100/170 L
Phi (+125) 100/125 L
Tor (+111) 100/111 L
LA (+106) 100/106 W
SD (-105) 105/100 L
Boston (+170) W I played them as they have positive expection at this price, but noticed too late that the yanks are hitting at 73% (-270) in this type of matchup and at (-190) they also have positive expectation. I should have passed on this game, but still I would rather be on the dog side.
Good luck with your plays!
9/2-9/9 0-0 ( )
STD 60-62 (-1573)
Today: some quality dogs at a good price. I believe these plays have a positive expectation over the long term based on how the lines convert to odds (%) and how the team has faired against similar matchups.
For example, at -185, Seattle needs to hit 65% of the time to have positive expection over the long term. Based on my records in similar matchups and on how I rate the teams, they are hitting at 41%...negative expection. Min is a great team and at +170 they need to hit 37% to be profitable at this price. I have them hitting 40% of the time in this type of matchup....so the correct play is on Minnesota. The result of one individual game is not as important as the long term.
Min (+170) 100/170 L
Phi (+125) 100/125 L
Tor (+111) 100/111 L
LA (+106) 100/106 W
SD (-105) 105/100 L
Boston (+170) W I played them as they have positive expection at this price, but noticed too late that the yanks are hitting at 73% (-270) in this type of matchup and at (-190) they also have positive expectation. I should have passed on this game, but still I would rather be on the dog side.
Good luck with your plays!
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