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BEGINNING TUESDAY MAY 4
St. Louis at Philadelphia (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cardinals are putting plenty of runs on the board (over 6 per game) and check in with a 7-2 (+$590) record on the road thus far. Matt Morris has been their most consistent pitcher in recent years, and he?s off to another solid season (3.86 ERA). We?ll try him if he gets a turn. PREFERRED: Morris.
Los Angeles at Florida (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Dodgers have been a formidable visitor so far (6-3, +$465), and while the Marlins have jumped out to a 6-3 mark at home, their run production in those games has been way below par (only 3.2 per game). Florida is commanding some hefty prices these days, so we?ll stick with the visitor as long as the home team remains the favorite. PREFERRED: Dodgers as underdogs.
Colorado at Montreal (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
There?s not much to be said on behalf of the Expos right now, but they are getting very good pitching (3.52 ERA) and when the bats wake up they may still make a run at .500. The rockies are 0-5 on the road in night games (-$500), after going 18-38 (-$1620) in that situation last year. All three games in this series are evening affairs and we?ll be surprise if Montreal doesn?t win at least two of them. PREFERRED: Expos in all games.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
It?s hard to make projections on the Giants since they?ve been such a disappointment early in 2004 (7-12, -$610). If we see some improvement leading up to game day, we may want to jump in. Don?t think we?ll be taking the Mets under any circumstances (only 34-46, -$1085 at Shea last year, -$395 in 2003). PREFERRED: None.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Brewers have been a terrific road team over the past couple of years (+$1615 in 2003) and they are turning a profit once again (+$235). The Reds have trouble with lefthanders at home (-$220 in two tries this year, 7-15, -$790 in 2003) so we?ll proceed accordingly. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Reds.
San Diego at Atlanta (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Braves dominated this team in 2003 (6-1, +$390) and they?ve gotten off to a good start against righthanded opposition (+$300 with 5.6 runs per game). The Padres struggled vs. lefties last year (17-30, -$915) and are in the red against southpaws once again (2-3, -$120). Horatio Ramirez appears to be in top form (2.25 ERA), use him if the matchup works. PREFERRED: Ramirez vs. righthanders.
Arizona at Chicago Cubs (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs are the hottest team in the NL (8-2, +$390 with a 2.54 ERA among starters) and their team ERA is a full two runs less than that of Arizona. The Diamondbacks have fared poorly on the road (3-6, -$405) but if the prices get too high on Chicago, we?ll be forced to sit these ones out. PREFERRED: Cubs at -170 or less.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
We?ve noted the high prices on the Astros this year, so we?ll look for opportunities to take the Pirates? young quality hurlers. The trio of Kris Benson (3.91 ERA), Kip Wells (3.00) and Oliver Perez (1.74) will usually keep their backers in the game, and Bucs team BA is tops in the NL (.295), though the run production could be better. But Pittsburgh does win on the road (+$275 so far), while Houston is in the red at home (-$610). PREFERRED: Benson/Wells/Perez.
Minnesota at Seattle (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Twins are always very reliable against righthanders (+$1655 last year, +$305 so far this year) while the struggling Mariners (only 6-13, -$920 overall) are exactly the opposite (-$2015 in 2003, -$820 so far in 2004). We?ll play this series accordingly, but make sure to stay on the sidelines anytime a lefty is on the hill. PREFERRED: Twins when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Yanks could be in big trouble with the AL?s most anemic attack (.217 team BA) taking on the formidable Oakland rotation. Another problem for the Bombers is that they?ve only got two starters who have been reasonably effective. The A?s 43-322 vs. righties last two years) are poised to chew up the second tier NY hurlers. PREFERRED: Athletics unless opposed by Vazquez or Brown.