ATLANTA

DeadPrez

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 9, 2005
4,033
15
0
New York
Guys Atlanta is arguably the roughest track on the circuit and just chews up tires. The drivers love it! As fans we'll see the drivers hands sawing on that steering wheel all night long! Nice change from so many repaves that don't require as much driver car control.

Goodyear is bringing an entirely new tire compound this weekend that 13 teams tested already. Brad Keselowski after testing said that the tire could "revolutionize the sport." Apparently it doesn't wear like the usual tire. It's 2/3 a tire from one style race track and 1/3 compound from another. Or something like that.

Something to note that I found very interesting. This week on the morning drive on Sirius Slugger Labbe was on and he was at the test with his driver Paul Menard. He said that the speeds with the new gen 6 car at Atlanta were incredible and that in particular Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne were lightning fast. He actually said that he'd be surprised if one of them 2 guys didn't win the race. Upon digging a little further, this aforementioned test was conducted in June right around when Jason Leffler was unfortunately killed in a sprint car wreck. Kasey Kahne and Leffler were very close friends and the 2nd day of that test he left to attend his funeral. Dale Jr hopped in his car to test the 2nd day so he has some familiarity with this new tire as well.

The weather forecast is iffy this weekend so if there is limited practice time this stuff is even more relevant. Every team was represented at the test so they'll all have data to pull off of but I think being there, given this new tire, will prove greatly beneficial.

Kenseth was there for the test and he's been great in 1.5 mile tracks this year winning at Kentucky, Kansas and Vegas, along with Darlington and Bristol last Saturday night. Gibbs has been top shelf on 1 mile tracks this year with kyle also winning at Texas, but remember this, there hasn't been a race on a mile and a half track in quite some time dating back to the end of June at Kentucky. And that's a flatter track. It's been since the end of may since we've seen a high banked 1.5 mile track when they ran at Charlotte. Gives a lot of time for the competition to catch up.

Hamlin won this race last year. Jeff Gordon was very fast last weekend and has finishes of 1st and 2nd the last 2 races at Atlanta. Got to look at him at +1250!

Carl Edwards is someone I've already grabbed. A track like Atlanta is big on short pitting and one of the best strategy crew chiefs around in my opinion, especially in regard to short pitting and grabbing an advantage is Jimmy Fennig, Edwards crew chief. Edwards looked very strong at Bristol and may well have won that race if not for a failed engine while leading late in the race. That was Ford's first failed engine all season! I know Ford hasn't been stellar this year but Edwards has 2 wins here and when he doesn't wreck or get wrecked he's a top 10 machine at Atlanta. His past stats here are littered with top 10's and top 5's mixed with a few finishes in the high 30's so if he can stay out of trouble, with Fennig as his crew chief and the way he ran last week I think he's got value at +2000. Also remember that Kurt Busch was leading last week when he had a hub problem early. The guy has just been so fast this year but his pit crew leaves a lot to be desired. He has 3 wins at Atlanta and even managed a 13th last year with Phoenix racing. Based on what Slugger Labbe said, Kurt's pure speed this year and his past at Atlanta I think he's valuable at +1300 and I'm taking a shot on him. He's got to be relaxed now (if that's even possible for him) after the announcement that he'll be at SHR next year and just focused now on the 78 getting into the chase.

I also love Kahne this week but his odds are now down to +600. Going to wait on him, his odds can't get too much worse I don't think. Very interestingly Jimmie Johnson has not won a race on a mile and a half this year. And 1/2 of the chase races are run on that size track. Just something to note. After a few rough weeks he could open up a can this weekend, he's great at Atlanta.

Kahne is using the chassis he won with at Pocono in August. So fast that day. And junior is racing the chassis he had at Kentucky. I believe he won the pole that race and he was leading when he ran over a tire shelll that had come off I think the 11 car. Tough break but a real fast car. His past finishes at Atlanta though are not very good.
 

DeadPrez

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 9, 2005
4,033
15
0
New York
To Win:

Kahne +725

Mid range:

Gordon +1250
Kurt +1300
Bowyer +2000
Edwards +2000 and again at +800

Longshot:

Montoya +4500
Vickers +12500 (agree with Shiner that this is worth a small shot at those odds)

Finishing position:

Edwards under 6.5 (-115)
Gordon under 9.5 (-135)

Matchups:

Edwards over Kyle (-115)
Bowyer over Logano (-125)
Gordon over Keselowski (-105)
Gordon over Harvick (+115)
Hamlin over Junior (+110)

Happy Race Day. Fun one tonight in the ATL. Won't be able to watch cause we're throwing my folks a surprise 40th anniversary party but looking forward to watching the DVR tomorrow. Good luck
 

Old School

OVR
Forum Member
Mar 19, 2006
38,640
557
113
75
NASCAR Picks for Atlanta

by Brian Polking, Monday, August 26, 2013 6:48:59 PM CDT FFToolbox.com


Track Info:
Length: 1.540 miles
Shape: Quad-oval
Type: Intermediate
Location: Hampton, Georgia
View Average Finishes



The Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend, and while the track's 1.5-mile layout is the most common on the schedule, there is something about AMS that sets it apart from the other cookie-cutter ovals. Maybe it's the fact that the track is older and has built up multiple racing grooves or maybe it's the fact that the race is now held just before the Chase and the pressure is mounting, but from cut tires and engine issues to wrecks and pit road problems, there always seems to be plenty of action at Atlanta. In fact, no driver currently has more than two straight top-10s at the track. Granted, plenty of the big names have had their share of success at AMS, but it isn't uncommon for the top drivers to have a poor showing at Atlanta every now and then. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, there is no way of knowing which drivers are going have issues. However, history says that the title contenders tend to dominate once the Chase begins. As a result, there is even more reason to roll with some sleeper options this weekend, especially in formats where starts per driver are limited.



1. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Although he has never won at Atlanta, Kenseth has been the model of consistency at the track. He has reeled off 13 straight top-15 finishes at the 1.5-mile oval, collecting six top-five finishes during the stretch. Meanwhile, his 7.4 average finish in the last 10 races at Atlanta is the best in the series.

2. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

His 11.1 average finish is plenty impressive in its own right, but Johnson's ability to deliver elite finishes at Atlanta is what sets him apart from most other drivers. In 21 starts at the track, he has three wins and has finished in the top three an incredible 10 times. Two of those top-three finishes have come in his last three starts at Atlanta, including a second-place run in 2011.

3. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Kahne has had some bad luck in his last few starts at Atlanta, but he is a proven winner at the track. In fact, he has a pair of victories and six top-five finishes at Atlanta in his career. Not to mention the fact that Kahne has always been excellent at 1.5-mile ovals, and seven of his 16 Cup wins have come at similar tracks.

4. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He has been on a roll at Atlanta for a while, and Gordon seems to be getting better. He has finished in the top 15 in 12 of his last 13 starts at the track, including a win in 2011 and a second-place run last year. In fact, Gordon has four top-two finishes at Atlanta during his recent hot stretch.

5. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

While Edwards has had a few bad outings at Atlanta, his overall record speaks for itself. In 15 starts at the track, he has finished seventh or better 10 times. More importantly, Edwards is a three-time winner at Atlanta, and he has finished third or better on seven occasions.

6. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Keselowski is definitely trending in the right direction at Atlanta. After finishing 36th and 25th in his first two starts at the track, including his infamous run-in with Carl Edwards, he has finished sixth and third in his last two outings. The sample size isn't huge, but Keselowski certainly has top-five potential this weekend.

7. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser/Rheem, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He actually went through a long slump at Atlanta following his memorable win the year he replaced Dale Earnhardt, but Harvick has found his groove at the track once again. He has eight top-15 finishes in his last nine starts at Atlanta, including six top-10s. Meanwhile, Harvick has finished seventh and fifth at the track the past two seasons.

8. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Although he gave away a potential win last weekend at Bristol by turning a cut tire into a total disaster, Busch might not have to wait long to get another chance at a victory. After all, he has 10 top-15s in his last 11 starts at Atlanta and has finished sixth or better five times in his last seven starts at the track. Busch also has a pair of victories at Atlanta during the stretch and is a three-time winner at the track overall.

9. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Atlanta has always been one of his better tracks regardless of what team he was driving for. In fact, Vickers has finished 11th or better in six of his last seven starts at the 1.5-mile oval and has three finishes of seventh or better during the stretch. After not having a ride for the 2012 Atlanta race, owners will want to take full advantage of him this weekend.

10. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

After failing to crack the top 10 in his first seven starts at Atlanta, Busch has broken through with several strong runs lately. However, he remains inconsistent. In his last eight starts at the track, he has finished sixth or better four times, including a win. On the flip side, he has four finishes outside the top 10 during the same stretch, including three finishes outside the top 15.

11. Martin Truex, Jr., #56 NAPA Auto Parts, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

While he has an unimpressive 21.5 average finish at Atlanta, Truex has been a much better driver at the track lately. He has reeled off three straight top-15s finishes at the 1.5-mile oval, including a career-best fourth-place effort last season. In addition, Truex has nine top-10s in the last 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks and leads all drivers in points scored during the stretch.

12. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Although Atlanta hasn't been his best intermediate oval, Biffle has been solid at the track in recent years. He has finished in the top 15 in six of his last eight starts at Atlanta and has four top-15s in his last five starts. On the flip side, he only has one top-five finish during the stretch, so don't expect anything too spectacular.
 

Old School

OVR
Forum Member
Mar 19, 2006
38,640
557
113
75
NASCAR Picks for Atlanta

by Brian Polking, Monday, August 26, 2013 6:48:59 PM CDT FFToolbox.com


13. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class B]

His record at Atlanta is terrible, and in six starts at the track, Logano is still searching for a top-15. However, he enters Sunday's race on a tear. Logano has finished eighth or better in the last five races, including a win at Michigan and a top-five at Bristol the past two weeks. His momentum makes him an intriguing option this weekend.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Junior owns a solid 12.5 average finish at Atlanta in 25 career starts, but his success lately has been more a result of avoiding bad finishes than adding up great ones. In fact, he has just one top-10 finish in his last seven starts at the track. Junior should have a decent showing Sunday, but fantasy owners shouldn't expect more than a top-15 finish.

15. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Atlanta has been kind to Burton the past couple of years. The veteran has reeled off three straight top-15 finishes at the 1.5-mile oval, compiling a 9.7 average finish during the stretch. Another top-15 finish isn't out of the question, making Burton a decent sleeper option.

16. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

As his 18.2 average finish suggests, Atlanta has never been Bowyer's best track. In fact, he has never recorded a top-five finish at the 1.5-mile oval, and he has been even worse recently. Bowyer has finished outside the top 20 in four of his last five starts at Atlanta, and he should definitely be saved for another week in Yahoo! leagues.

17. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

The good news is that Hamlin is the defending winner of this weekend's race, and he has finished in the top 15 in six of his last eight starts at the track. The bad news is that he has been dreadful the last 10 races of 2013, compiling a 27.3 average finish. Hamlin has plenty of potential, but owners are taking a big risk that his slump will come to an end.

18. Juan Montoya, #42 Target, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

While the intermediate ovals have never been his strong suit, Montoya has enjoyed some success at Atlanta. He has finished in the top 15 in four of his last five starts at the track and has finished as high as third during the stretch. Montoya could be a surprisingly effective sleeper pick this weekend.

19. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Menard has had his share of success at 1.5-mile tracks in recent years, including Atlanta. He finished a career-best fifth at the track in 2010, and he finished eighth in last year's race. Menard still isn't the most consistent performer, but he does have plenty of potential as a sleeper option this weekend.

20. Mark Martin, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The veteran had a rather lackluster debut for Stewart-Haas Racing last weekend at Bristol, and he could struggle to get up to speed this weekend at Atlanta. Although he finished 10th at the track last year, Martin has just two top-10s in his last nine starts at Atlanta overall. Expecting more than a top-20 finish from Martin this weekend is asking for disappointment.

21. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford/Clorox, JTG Daugherty Racing [Yahoo Class C]

He is slated to drive for JTG Daugherty Racing this weekend, and Atlanta happens to be one of his best tracks. In seven starts at Atlanta, Allmendinger has compiled a 14.4 average finish, and he has never finished outside the top 20. Meanwhile, Allmendinger has two top-10s in his last three starts at AMS. He should make a solid sleeper option this weekend in most formats.

22. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Although the faster ovals have traditionally given Ambrose some trouble, he has been better at Atlanta lately. In his last four starts at the track, he has compiled a 14.8 average finish and has two finishes of 11th or better. Granted, Ambrose still comes with plenty of risk, but he could be a sneaky source for a top-15 for owners willing to gamble a bit.

23. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans/Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

His last 15 starts at Atlanta have been forgettable to say the least. Newman has just two top-10 finishes during the stretch, and he has finished outside the top 15 on 11 occasions. Newman's minimal upside makes him a below average fantasy play in most formats this weekend.

24. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

McMurray has been unspectacular throughout his career at Atlanta, compiling a 20.5 average finish in 19 starts. Meanwhile, he has cracked the top 10 just once in his last 12 starts at the track. At best, McMurray will likely provide a top-20 this weekend.
 

Old School

OVR
Forum Member
Mar 19, 2006
38,640
557
113
75
25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The good news is that Roush Fenway Racing has had a lot of success at Atlanta, and Stenhouse has managed three straight top-20s heading into this weekend's race. However, he has compiled a 24.9 average finish in seven Cup starts at 1.5-mile tracks. Stenhouse is only worth gambling on in deeper leagues at this point.


26. Landon Cassill, #40 Hillman Racing, Hillman Racing [Yahoo Class C]

For whatever reason, Cassill seems to have a natural feel for Atlanta. In two starts at the track for smaller teams, he has finished 22nd and 20th. Cassill could make a solid sleeper in deeper leagues, and could even make a serviceable C-List option in Yahoo! leagues.

27. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Almirola made his first start at Atlanta in 2009 and finished 21st, and he didn't make his next start at the track until last season when he finished 32nd. Given the small sample size and unimpressive results, Almirola doesn't offer a lot of upside for fantasy owners this weekend.

28. Bobby Labonte, #51 Phoenix Construction, Phoenix Racing [Yahoo Class B]

In his prime, Labonte absolutely owned Atlanta, and his six wins at the 1.5-mile oval are by far his most at any track. Granted, he is no longer a dominant driver at the track by any means, but Labonte does know the track. He managed a top-20 finish at AMS last year, and in deeper leagues, he could be worth a look as a sleeper.

29. Dave Blaney, #7 Accell Construction/Sany, Tommy Baldwin Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Serious NASCAR fans may remember the 2001 spring race at Atlanta when Blaney was cruising to a win until a loose lug nut caused his wheel to fall off. He remains winless in the Cup Series to this day, but he still has a decent run at Atlanta from time to time. In fact, he has two top-25s in his last three starts at the track. In deeper leagues, Blaney could be a useful sleeper.

30. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Success is relative for Patrick, but she has compiled a 23.0 average finish in the three races leading up to Atlanta. She also cracked the top 30 in her debut at the track last season. A top-25 finish could be possible this weekend.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top