Alright stat heads, something for you to mull over... 
From my personal database, how teams have fared in various spread ranges, from the start of the 1996 season up to Week 6 of 2003. I keep games with -3 and -7 spreads in separate categories as they are such key numbers. (Numbers may vary slightly from those others have ... pushes are excluded) ....
Abnormal trends in RED
Pick 'Em Games
2003: Home teams are 2-0 ATS (100%)
2002: Home teams were 4-1 ATS (80%)
8-year total: Home teams are 16-7 ATS (69.6%)
Year in, year out, home teams have been a good bet in this range. Only one season ('01) in the past 8 where road teams were above .500 in this category.
Favorites of -1 to -2?
2003 Home Fav's: 6-6 (50%)
2003 Road Fav's: 2-3 (40%)
2002 Home Fav's: 7-9 (43.8%)
2002 Road Fav's: 8-18 (30.8%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 95-87 (52.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 51-77 (39.8%)
The home dogs are consistently good bets, with 2002 being an exceptionally good year in this range.
Favorites of Exactly -3
2003 Home Fav's: 4-6 (40%)
2003 Road Fav's: 6-0 (100%)
2002 Home Fav's: 11-14 (44%)
2002 Road Fav's: 13-11 (54.2%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 76-66 (53.5%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 66-58 (53.2%)
Oddly enough, favorites outperform dogs historically in this range. However, in the past 2 years there has been a big increase in the number of games listed with this spread, as oddsmakers have begun moving the ML amounts instead of moving the line off the 3. Not enough evidence yet to determine what effect this will have on these statistics.
Favorites of -3? to -6?
2003 Home Fav's: 11-10 (52.4%)
2003 Road Fav's: 8-1 (88.9%)
2002 Home Fav's: 26-36 (41.9%)
2002 Road Fav's: 10-13 (43.5%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 191-227 (45.7%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 78-95 (45.1%)
This is always the category with the greatest number of games played each year, and it's usually a good dog category. This year's abnormally high % of covers by favorites sure stands out!
Favorites of Exactly -7
2003 Home Fav's: 2-5 (28.6%)
2003 Road Fav's: 1-0 (100%)
2002 Home Fav's: 8-6 (57.1%)
2002 Road Fav's: 1-3 (25%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 50-50 (50%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 15-25 (37.5%)
Road favorites in this category historically perform poorly.
Favorites of -7? to -9?
2003 Home Fav's: 4-2 (66.7%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-1 (0%)
2002 Home Fav's: 11-15 (42.3%)
2002 Road Fav's: 3-7 (30%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 71-85 (45.5%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 19-30 (38.8%)
Dogs in this range are the best bet on the board, except for this year. Home fav's had one outstanding year ('98, 12-4 ATS). Take that out and you've got them hitting at 42.1%. That's the only time either home or road favs has finished above .500 for a season. And, although you can't see it from just these numbers...this trend has gotten stronger since '99. Since '98, home favs in this range are 38-58 (39.6%), and road favs have gone 13-20 (39.4%).
Favorites of -10 to -13?
2003 Home Fav's: 2-2 (50%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-0
2002 Home Fav's: 7-7 (50%)
2002 Road Fav's: 1-0 (100%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 66-63 (51.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 12-16 (42.9%)
Oddly enough favorites start to do better when the spread gets higher than -10. Relatively few road games in this range to make a judgement on.
Favorites of -14+
2003 Home Fav's: 0-1 (0%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-0
2002 Home Fav's: 0-2 (0%)
2002 Road Fav's: 0-0
8-year total, Home Fav's: 20-20 (50%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 2-3 (40%)
About as flat a category as you could get. No edges at all.
Complete Stats
2003 Home Fav's: 31-32 (49.2%)
2003 Road Fav's: 17-5 (77.3%)
2002 Home Fav's: 74-90 (45.1%)
2002 Road Fav's: 36-52 (40.9%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 585-605 (49.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 243-304 (44.4%)
2002 was a better year than average for dogs; 2003 has been worse.
From my personal database, how teams have fared in various spread ranges, from the start of the 1996 season up to Week 6 of 2003. I keep games with -3 and -7 spreads in separate categories as they are such key numbers. (Numbers may vary slightly from those others have ... pushes are excluded) ....
Abnormal trends in RED
Pick 'Em Games
2003: Home teams are 2-0 ATS (100%)
2002: Home teams were 4-1 ATS (80%)
8-year total: Home teams are 16-7 ATS (69.6%)
Year in, year out, home teams have been a good bet in this range. Only one season ('01) in the past 8 where road teams were above .500 in this category.
Favorites of -1 to -2?
2003 Home Fav's: 6-6 (50%)
2003 Road Fav's: 2-3 (40%)
2002 Home Fav's: 7-9 (43.8%)
2002 Road Fav's: 8-18 (30.8%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 95-87 (52.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 51-77 (39.8%)
The home dogs are consistently good bets, with 2002 being an exceptionally good year in this range.
Favorites of Exactly -3
2003 Home Fav's: 4-6 (40%)
2003 Road Fav's: 6-0 (100%)
2002 Home Fav's: 11-14 (44%)
2002 Road Fav's: 13-11 (54.2%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 76-66 (53.5%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 66-58 (53.2%)
Oddly enough, favorites outperform dogs historically in this range. However, in the past 2 years there has been a big increase in the number of games listed with this spread, as oddsmakers have begun moving the ML amounts instead of moving the line off the 3. Not enough evidence yet to determine what effect this will have on these statistics.
Favorites of -3? to -6?
2003 Home Fav's: 11-10 (52.4%)
2003 Road Fav's: 8-1 (88.9%)
2002 Home Fav's: 26-36 (41.9%)
2002 Road Fav's: 10-13 (43.5%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 191-227 (45.7%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 78-95 (45.1%)
This is always the category with the greatest number of games played each year, and it's usually a good dog category. This year's abnormally high % of covers by favorites sure stands out!
Favorites of Exactly -7
2003 Home Fav's: 2-5 (28.6%)
2003 Road Fav's: 1-0 (100%)
2002 Home Fav's: 8-6 (57.1%)
2002 Road Fav's: 1-3 (25%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 50-50 (50%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 15-25 (37.5%)
Road favorites in this category historically perform poorly.
Favorites of -7? to -9?
2003 Home Fav's: 4-2 (66.7%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-1 (0%)
2002 Home Fav's: 11-15 (42.3%)
2002 Road Fav's: 3-7 (30%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 71-85 (45.5%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 19-30 (38.8%)
Dogs in this range are the best bet on the board, except for this year.
Home fav's had one outstanding year ('98, 12-4 ATS). Take that out and you've got them hitting at 42.1%. That's the only time either home or road favs has finished above .500 for a season. And, although you can't see it from just these numbers...this trend has gotten stronger since '99. Since '98, home favs in this range are 38-58 (39.6%), and road favs have gone 13-20 (39.4%).Favorites of -10 to -13?
2003 Home Fav's: 2-2 (50%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-0
2002 Home Fav's: 7-7 (50%)
2002 Road Fav's: 1-0 (100%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 66-63 (51.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 12-16 (42.9%)
Oddly enough favorites start to do better when the spread gets higher than -10. Relatively few road games in this range to make a judgement on.
Favorites of -14+
2003 Home Fav's: 0-1 (0%)
2003 Road Fav's: 0-0
2002 Home Fav's: 0-2 (0%)
2002 Road Fav's: 0-0
8-year total, Home Fav's: 20-20 (50%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 2-3 (40%)
About as flat a category as you could get. No edges at all.
Complete Stats
2003 Home Fav's: 31-32 (49.2%)
2003 Road Fav's: 17-5 (77.3%)
2002 Home Fav's: 74-90 (45.1%)
2002 Road Fav's: 36-52 (40.9%)
8-year total, Home Fav's: 585-605 (49.2%)
8-year total, Road Fav's: 243-304 (44.4%)
2002 was a better year than average for dogs; 2003 has been worse.
