Everyone can already guess which team I'm on even if you haven't been reading the posts on this game yet. . . but here's why:
1. Depth. . . this is how Arizona won the first matchup and works well for them after both teams played Thursday. The freshmen (Adams and Igudola) are coming in to their own right now and provided the spark needed for Arizona to jump out to their first half lead against Notre Dame who wasn't missing very much from the perimeter. Both Adams and Igudola played their best games that I have seen the entire season even if their offensive stats were not their best.
2. Hinrich. . . this could be a huge loss for Kansas. . . even if he plays, he won't be 100% and Arizona will be able to gamble as they always do anyways by letting teams take uncontested 3's in favor of closing up the lanes and double teaming or collapsing on forwards on the inside like Collison. I realize Collison has been getting all of the attention, but I feel that Frye can match up fairly well especially if he gets some occasional help from Walton or Anderson.
3. Line move. . . until we see what happens with this line after the inital move, I will almost always go with Vegas over an early line move based on incomplete information. Why take Kansas early without knowing the fate of Hinrich? Collison is playing very well, but he will need perimeter support in order to be most effective. I realize Kansas has other very solid players besides Hinrich, but this is still a problem for a team without a lot of depth.
4. Personal knowledge. . . this is mainly b.s. information, but Arizona is playing their best ball of the season IMO as I have tracked them closely all year long and the first half against Notre Dame was incredible as they remained even with a team shooting 70% and then took a commanding lead once the Irish settled down to just below sixty percent. Not too many teams could have done what Arizona was able to but they limited turnovers, outrebounded the Irish, etc. Walton finally looks 100% healthy and Gardner is out of his funk. I don't see a more balanced team left with as many scoring threats and this bodes well against the pace that Kansas likes to play. Kansas is most effective when they are running the ball just like Arizona. . . but they tried to run with Arizona in the first game and ran out of gas in the 2nd half. . . what has changed since then especially with both teams off of Thursday games?
Concerns:
Not many, but Collison is an obvious concern. . . Frye has been playing just as great from what I have seen, but has he faced somebody like the way Collison is playing right now (obviously the first matchup, but still not the same as Collison is playing right now)?
Another concern I have has to do with the first game. . . not many know this, but I heard about it earlier on ESPN: all three officials for the game were from the Pac 10 despite the fact that the game was on the Jayhawk's floor. Arizona held a huge advantage from the free throw line. . . will this continue despite neutral refs?
In the end, unless Arizona shoots poorly from the field and Kansas shows amazing energy and runs with the Wildcats the entire 40 minutes, I just can't see Arizona losing a game like this where they are playing the type of baksetball they love to play. Arizona was able to coast to victory against Notre Dame playing a laid back 2nd half while Kansas had to play hard for 40 minutes to get the win against Duke. We have the team with greater depth playing an easier game two days earlier against a team where one of their stars is suspect and their depth has always been questionable. On a neutral court, I felt Arizona would be a 4 point favorite so the line coming out at 3.5 wasn't a surprise. Obviously the line move was a little surprise but I think I will go ahead and take advantage of this move now for a solid bet and consider increasing my wager depending on how the line moves up to the tipoff.
GL all and feel free to agree/disagree with my "analysis"
1. Depth. . . this is how Arizona won the first matchup and works well for them after both teams played Thursday. The freshmen (Adams and Igudola) are coming in to their own right now and provided the spark needed for Arizona to jump out to their first half lead against Notre Dame who wasn't missing very much from the perimeter. Both Adams and Igudola played their best games that I have seen the entire season even if their offensive stats were not their best.
2. Hinrich. . . this could be a huge loss for Kansas. . . even if he plays, he won't be 100% and Arizona will be able to gamble as they always do anyways by letting teams take uncontested 3's in favor of closing up the lanes and double teaming or collapsing on forwards on the inside like Collison. I realize Collison has been getting all of the attention, but I feel that Frye can match up fairly well especially if he gets some occasional help from Walton or Anderson.
3. Line move. . . until we see what happens with this line after the inital move, I will almost always go with Vegas over an early line move based on incomplete information. Why take Kansas early without knowing the fate of Hinrich? Collison is playing very well, but he will need perimeter support in order to be most effective. I realize Kansas has other very solid players besides Hinrich, but this is still a problem for a team without a lot of depth.
4. Personal knowledge. . . this is mainly b.s. information, but Arizona is playing their best ball of the season IMO as I have tracked them closely all year long and the first half against Notre Dame was incredible as they remained even with a team shooting 70% and then took a commanding lead once the Irish settled down to just below sixty percent. Not too many teams could have done what Arizona was able to but they limited turnovers, outrebounded the Irish, etc. Walton finally looks 100% healthy and Gardner is out of his funk. I don't see a more balanced team left with as many scoring threats and this bodes well against the pace that Kansas likes to play. Kansas is most effective when they are running the ball just like Arizona. . . but they tried to run with Arizona in the first game and ran out of gas in the 2nd half. . . what has changed since then especially with both teams off of Thursday games?
Concerns:
Not many, but Collison is an obvious concern. . . Frye has been playing just as great from what I have seen, but has he faced somebody like the way Collison is playing right now (obviously the first matchup, but still not the same as Collison is playing right now)?
Another concern I have has to do with the first game. . . not many know this, but I heard about it earlier on ESPN: all three officials for the game were from the Pac 10 despite the fact that the game was on the Jayhawk's floor. Arizona held a huge advantage from the free throw line. . . will this continue despite neutral refs?
In the end, unless Arizona shoots poorly from the field and Kansas shows amazing energy and runs with the Wildcats the entire 40 minutes, I just can't see Arizona losing a game like this where they are playing the type of baksetball they love to play. Arizona was able to coast to victory against Notre Dame playing a laid back 2nd half while Kansas had to play hard for 40 minutes to get the win against Duke. We have the team with greater depth playing an easier game two days earlier against a team where one of their stars is suspect and their depth has always been questionable. On a neutral court, I felt Arizona would be a 4 point favorite so the line coming out at 3.5 wasn't a surprise. Obviously the line move was a little surprise but I think I will go ahead and take advantage of this move now for a solid bet and consider increasing my wager depending on how the line moves up to the tipoff.
GL all and feel free to agree/disagree with my "analysis"
