BABIP

IE

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taking a look at some hitters who will likely improve on their poor performances and those whose good performances are likely to decline. going to specifically look at BABIP to make my selections (the players are not in any particular order).

IMPROVEMENT CANDIDATES


1. Ian Kinsler, 2B Los Angeles Angels (.207 BABIP)

2. Khris Davis, DH Oakland Athletics (.238 BABIP)

3. Travis Shaw, 3B Milwaukee Brewers (.254 BABIP)

4. Anthony Rizzo, 1B Chicago Cubs (.229 BABIP)

5. Justin Turner, 3B Los Angeles Dodgers (.245 BABIP)

6. Edwin Encarnacion, DH Cleveland Indians (.254 BABIP)

7. Nelson Cruz, DH Seattle Mariners (.266 BABIP)

8. Lewis Brinson, CF Miami Marlins (.224 BABIP)

9. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B Washington Nationals (.244 BABIP)

10. Daniel Murphy, 2B Washington Nationals (.231 BABIP)

11. Bryce Harper, RF Washington Nationals (.223 BABIP)

12. Jonathan Schoop, 2B Baltimore Orioles (.223 BABIP)

13. Carlos Santana, 1B Philadelphia Phillies (.214 BABIP)

14. Joey Gallo, LF Texas Rangers (.237 BABIP)

15. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF Boston Red Sox (.255 BABIP)

16. Adam Duvall, LF Cincinnati Reds (.233 BABIP)

17. Ian Desmond, 1B Colorado Rockies (.241 BABIP)

18. Salvador Perez, C Kansas City Royals (.217 BABIP)

19. Brian Dozier, 2B Minnesota Twins (.239 BABIP)

20. Max Kepler, RF Minnesota Twins (.234 BABIP)

21. Byron Buxton, CF Minnesota Twins (.226 BABIP)

22. Gary Sanchez, C New York Yankees (.194 BABIP)

23. Greg Bird, 1B New York Yankees (.246 BABIP)

24. Didi Gregorius, SS New York Yankees (.253 BABIP)

25. Elvis Andrus, SS Texas Rangers (.264 BABIP)


REGRESSION CANDIDATES

1. Freddie Freeman, 1B Atlanta Braves (.364 BABIP)

2. Matt Kemp, LF Los Angeles Dodgers (.360 BABIP)

3. Brandon Belt, 1B San Francisco Giants (.350 BABIP)

4. Jean Segura, SS Seattle Mariners (.374 BABIP)

5. Derek Dietrich, LF Miami Marlins (.374 BABIP)

6. Juan Soto, LF Washington Nationals (.372 BABIP)

7. Wil Myers, RF San Diego Padres (.357 BABIP)

8. Adrian Beltre, 3B Texas Rangers (.362 BABIP)

9. J.D. Martinez, DH Boston Red Sox (.370 BABIP)

10. Scooter Gennett, 2B Cincinnati Reds (.386 BABIP)

11. Tom Murphy, C Colorado Rockies (.542 BABIP)

12. Nicholas Castellanos, RF Detroit Tigers (.377 BABIP)
 

Wineguy

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Feb 7, 2000
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So Freddie Freemen is listed first at the top of your mind as a guy most likely to decline? How can you predict that notion, IE, with his consistency the past few years? How can you predict "Most likely" what any of these guys will and will not do? It would seem you would need to be around these guys daily and on a personal level to most likely say they will rise up or fail the rest of the year. Interested to hear why this matters to you and your handicapping to this level of detail, and do you do this or something similar for other sports like basketball with individual stats, and football and hockey as well? Seems like a lot of work, and what financial gain has it given you in the past? Thanks.

For example, you have 3 Nationals and 3 Twins on improvement list, so does that mean you will bet on them the second half with more overs since that is your bet of choice? :shrug:
 

Wineguy

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Feb 7, 2000
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OK, to a lot of people that was a bunch of mumbo jumbo and must be for people that have too much time on their hands and no life. Not you specifically, just those that study analytics and invent one more statistic with an acronym no one knows. At the end of the day for us old schoolers, its batting average, hits, homers, and RBIs for hitters, and wins/losses and ERA's for pitchers. The day they start saying "so-and-so's BABIP is .250 and he should get better than that" on telecasts is the day I stop watching. It's baseball, plain and simple. Score more runs than the other team and you win.

:rolleyes:
 
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