Eastern Michigan +6 -108 (2*)
E. Mich/Old D ov 64 -110 (3*)
For many years I have made a very solid profit off simply fading the MAC...Times appear to be changing for some in the MAC while the MAC East is still garbage the west has appeared to turn a bit in terms of power ranking this year. Old Dominions Schedule Strength is #140 and while Eastern's schedule not the most difficult is still significantly higher at #101...from a conference power standpoint the MAC WEST is 64.17 vs. the CUSA EAST 55.43...to put things in perspective the top 3 conferences are SEC west at 81.37, PAC 12 north 79.29, BIG 10 east 78.03...anytime I have found there is a >=5pt differential in conference power ranking and the higher rated conference team is a dog the results are usually solid
I am hitting the over primarily on the fact of the 3 statistical categories that I believe match up with each other and can lead to fast possessions which lead to more points...I play live in play totals almost every game, I base my decision on the 1st 5 minutes and how many possessions there are (not points). My favorite situations are teams that go on 5+ minute scoring drives to start a game and get 7 pts, this would lean me toward an under...take last nights match-up there were 4 possessions in the first 5 min with no points, I hit the over at 46.5...this game involves a MAC team which is always nice for an over, I think the lack of depth at the defensive line position throughout the MAC leads to more points especially later in games as athletes get tired...watch bigger conference teams even the shitty ones sub D linemen every few plays but in MAC games the DLinemen will sit out there for series after series (kinda an iron man position at the smaller D1 level schools)...key stats I found that I believe will support the over (OLD D rushing average 5.2 rypa) (E. Mich 296 PY) (E. Mich defensively 268 PY)...certain bowls have tendencies when it comes to totals, if you have watched the Bahamas Bowl in its first few years of existence it has a shoot out type feel to it...didn't hurt Hawkeye had this one circled way in advance as well...gl today
E. Mich/Old D ov 64 -110 (3*)
For many years I have made a very solid profit off simply fading the MAC...Times appear to be changing for some in the MAC while the MAC East is still garbage the west has appeared to turn a bit in terms of power ranking this year. Old Dominions Schedule Strength is #140 and while Eastern's schedule not the most difficult is still significantly higher at #101...from a conference power standpoint the MAC WEST is 64.17 vs. the CUSA EAST 55.43...to put things in perspective the top 3 conferences are SEC west at 81.37, PAC 12 north 79.29, BIG 10 east 78.03...anytime I have found there is a >=5pt differential in conference power ranking and the higher rated conference team is a dog the results are usually solid
I am hitting the over primarily on the fact of the 3 statistical categories that I believe match up with each other and can lead to fast possessions which lead to more points...I play live in play totals almost every game, I base my decision on the 1st 5 minutes and how many possessions there are (not points). My favorite situations are teams that go on 5+ minute scoring drives to start a game and get 7 pts, this would lean me toward an under...take last nights match-up there were 4 possessions in the first 5 min with no points, I hit the over at 46.5...this game involves a MAC team which is always nice for an over, I think the lack of depth at the defensive line position throughout the MAC leads to more points especially later in games as athletes get tired...watch bigger conference teams even the shitty ones sub D linemen every few plays but in MAC games the DLinemen will sit out there for series after series (kinda an iron man position at the smaller D1 level schools)...key stats I found that I believe will support the over (OLD D rushing average 5.2 rypa) (E. Mich 296 PY) (E. Mich defensively 268 PY)...certain bowls have tendencies when it comes to totals, if you have watched the Bahamas Bowl in its first few years of existence it has a shoot out type feel to it...didn't hurt Hawkeye had this one circled way in advance as well...gl today
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