ball st line plummeting
- Thread starter airportis
- Start date
majority of bettors on ball st and line dropping...umm...not a good sign for the favorite or is it???
I see the terms "sharps and "squares "used often here. As a confirmed square I was wondering what criteria is used to identify the sharps from the squares. Is it hip to be square? Can anybody help me with this entire concept ? :shrug:
i don't know what those terms means i just like using them! maybe they refer to how you dress? that guy is a sharp because his style is sharp?:mj07: :mj07:
or maybe a square is someone who thinks they know everything about college football and just bets favorites and overs!:shrug:
or maybe a square is someone who thinks they know everything about college football and just bets favorites and overs!:shrug:
spang, this concept I feel falls under the old statement Mort O. now deceased , used to make. I am not sure I remember it exactly but goes something like this, out of 100 games a handicapper can hope to pick 75% of them correctly, in other words be on the right side.
Out of that 75%, factors beyond the handicappers control, such as weather, turnovers, injuries, etc. will cost him 15-20% in lost wagers, the key being he is correct on 55-60% after factoring out the losses beyond his control!
The biggest obstacle is being right on 70-75 percent initially, to allow a profitable win rate after uncontrolable factors.
If you can be right 70-75% of the time that sorta mays you SHARP!
The discipline to restrict your plays to the point that your picks fall into this range is an additional obstacle to being sharp. Also understanding the value of shopping and knowing the right line vs the line the oddsmaker deals you is critical.
As I finish typing this the total in the NUT/MIA, OH game is 27 which is exactily half of the widely available game total of 54. Jeez they (linesmakers) are pretty sharp also :scared
Out of that 75%, factors beyond the handicappers control, such as weather, turnovers, injuries, etc. will cost him 15-20% in lost wagers, the key being he is correct on 55-60% after factoring out the losses beyond his control!
The biggest obstacle is being right on 70-75 percent initially, to allow a profitable win rate after uncontrolable factors.
If you can be right 70-75% of the time that sorta mays you SHARP!
The discipline to restrict your plays to the point that your picks fall into this range is an additional obstacle to being sharp. Also understanding the value of shopping and knowing the right line vs the line the oddsmaker deals you is critical.
As I finish typing this the total in the NUT/MIA, OH game is 27 which is exactily half of the widely available game total of 54. Jeez they (linesmakers) are pretty sharp also :scared
- Feb 23, 2005
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its funny that anyone considers them sharps or squares
i guess it makes people feel smarter to label themselves and to say "i told you so!" when their "sharp" bet comes in 50 percent of the time and when they lose they were just unlucky
:mj07:
i guess it makes people feel smarter to label themselves and to say "i told you so!" when their "sharp" bet comes in 50 percent of the time and when they lose they were just unlucky
:mj07:
Huey Lewis certainly thinks so. Then again, that guy thinks the heart of rock and roll is still beating, and I would argue that the defib paddles are needed for r & r at this point. Damn those kids with their hip hop music!
Lots of good responses, perhaps I'm beginning to see the light. I have always thought that the vast majority here represent the "public". I don't think that the real "sharps" spend their time on "public" forums proclaiming themselves as "sharps".:shrug:
Who the hell knows??
Who the hell knows??
In this particular game, the 'sharpest' players either took ball st -14 early or Mia Oh +19 late, while the 'squarest' players took the fav -19 or the dog +14.
Square or Sharp is a myth to me anymore. Cap a game, do your homework, find an edge. Forcing plays brings us much closer to the 50% mark or much less. I think the term public is thrown around so loosely anymore like someone has a holy-grail or a crystal ball because 10 people like a team. Contrarian handicapping worked 10 years ago or more but it will eat you alive today in imho. Message forums have made more information and angles widely available, eveyone has gotten much sharper, therefore that is probably why you see more people agree on a play. Numbers don't lie all the time. All of those consensus sites are b.s. they are a small sampling of information. Fading can be profitable but you need to stick to one person. People freak out if capper a that sucks balls has 1 team but capper b that sucks chode has the other, therefore he vicious cycle continues. I know there are some very fine cappers here that use line movement as a tool; but I think it is a lot of huff as welll. Respect the opening line. If your gut tells you you will get a better line, wait it out. We are all the public!!! The computer group and other stuff was 25 years ago! Ok, back to my 50%
Cie Grant, I don't consider myself sharp, just not as dull as the rest of the silverware in the drawer, :mj07:
I did however get as many as I could waiting and watching missed the top number on the Dog, then hit the second half middle opening at -10 Ball St, not waking up and playing it until it went from -9.5 to -10.
Still cracked the middle !
In reference to my first post in the thread, Mort Olshan, was the founder and publisher of "The Gold Sheet" from 1957, died Oct 2nd, 2003.
