Balt favored @ NYJ - WHY??

[GM]

Give me Jets ML all day, every day. This Ravens team is not impressive. Really don't like them as a road favorite. They haven't beaten a good team since Week 2. Jets coming off an upset divisional loss....just LOVE them to get back on track here.

Someone make a case for Baltimore please? What am I missing? And yes, I know about Pennington's injury. All the more reason to go with the Jets. FGATIT (First Game After The Injury Theory). Teams come up big in the first game (and ONLY the first game) without their star. This line is just a gross over-reaction to Pennington being out as I see it.

 

[Irish]

Quincy Carter vs. Ravens defense, I guess. I'm not sure though

 

[MrChristo]

I agree.

How quickly people forget that Quincy lead the NFL in passing yards last season!! (Although, admittedly he didn't face Baltimore)

 

[RexBudler]

I absolutely love the Jets here...I dont care who is QB for them...Balty and Boller have no reason to be road faves here IMO...gl to you

 

[pt1gard]

im leaning jets too ... anyone give an update on QC outta NY? looking okay, etc?

 

[Killian]

Hey there fellas.....I may not know much when it comes to handicapping football, but this much I do know. When everyone says "Go this way.....it's a sure thing". I am going to go the other way and be right over 50% of the time.

Just a thought to keep us all grounded.

Rich

 

[mjalam]

i like baltimore to win ...i'll take the ravens defense over the jets defense any day

 

[BuffaloBill]

Ravens defense will manhandle Quincy Carter. I think the Jets would have had a tough time scoring with Pennington in there. Quincy Carter is a joke. The only chance the Jets have is if Curtis Martin has a big day, which I don't see against this defense. Keep in mind that they held McNabb and the Eagles to 15 points in Philly. I see the Jets offense really struggling here. In addition, I think Jamal Lewis will have a big day as well. The Jets defense is overrated. If you look at their schedule, they have played cupcakes the whole season. They have not beat a good team all year. In their only 2 tests, at New England and Buffalo, they lost. The Jets might not even make the playoffs. Their schedule gets much tougher from here and we will see what they are made of. I definitely don't see them coming out of this with a win.

 

[RexBudler]

OK...I am scared of the Jets now and staying away...thanks for the info boys...something is just too weird with this one and I refuse to lose on Q

 

[GM]

Hey there fellas.....I may not know much when it comes to handicapping football, but this much I do know. When everyone says "Go this way.....it's a sure thing". I am going to go the other way and be right over 50% of the time.

Just a thought to keep us all grounded.

Rich

Ok....but who is "everyone"? Is "everyone" thinking the way I am, or is "everyone" thinking the Jets have no chance with Quincy Carter, Baltimore's defense is awesome, etc etc. Personally I think "everyone" is the latter, or else the Ravens wouldn't be road favorites. I don't think the average person would be taking the Jets in this situation knowing it's Q and not Penn starting.

 

[MrChristo]

A concensus site shows:

Baltimore 134 53.82% -1.5 Ny Jets 115 46.18%


Why are people simply assuming that Carter "is a joke"...Will get "man handled"?

As I already said, he lead the League in passing yards last year.
People seem to view him as some kind of Kordell Stewart!!...He isn't!

Sure, Jets still might have trouble putting points on the board, but why would Baltimore get more?
In away games they have scored 3 @ Cleveland, 23 @ Cinci (terrible run D, 3 Cinci INT's), 17 @ Washington (TD fumble return, TD kick-off return), 10 @ Philli.

 

[Killian]

Ok....but who is "everyone"? Is "everyone" thinking the way I am, or is "everyone" thinking the Jets have no chance with Quincy Carter, Baltimore's defense is awesome, etc etc. Personally I think "everyone" is the latter, or else the Ravens wouldn't be road favorites. I don't think the average person would be taking the Jets in this situation knowing it's Q and not Penn starting.

Everyone means all those who had posted before me......the thread seemed slanted towards the Jets and I just wanted to point that out. That's all that I meant.

 

[gardenweasel]

tease the jets and under..grabbed the under right off the bat(35..-120)..raven offense can`t score td`s..no heap...no ogden.....and the jets won`t go crazy, either....

a close,low scoring game...lots of martin and jamal...field goals....not td`s...

 

[ScreaminPain]

I've looked at this game for 2 days and cannot get off the Jets.

My sheets rely on the abilities of the teams to score against each other....an efficiency factor that I use and is reflected by a number that is basically "how may yards does a team have to move the ball to score a point." Then I determine how many yards of offense can each team expect against each other.

I mention this only to provide a little insight to my evaluation since this is my first post, and I don't have any "street cred".

With that in mind, my model shows Balt. to get around 287 yds of offense and the Jets to get around 318. Using their respective "efficiency numbers" the score should be around 19-16 Jets. But when I use turnover, home field, etc the final score comes out to:
Jets 24
Bal. 16

I know Chad is out, but is he really any better than Quincy?
I can't cap the emotion, standings and other intangables. So FWIW, I'm with you GM! My local won't be able to buy a new car if I lose, but he'll sure be able to fill his tank for a couple of weeks.
GL, whichever way you chose....

 

[Penguin68690]

I like the Ravens in this spot. Last week Willis Mcgahee ran for a career high 132 yards against the Jets. This is the second game back for Jamaal Lewis and I can see him running for 130 or more.
Quincy Carter last year threw 17 TDs but had 21 picks. He also fumbled 10 times and lost 3 of them. The Raven's Defense this year has given up only 6 passing TDs while collecting 11 interceptions. I can see the Ravens winning the turnover battle. The Ravens win with Defense, Running the ball and Special teams. I think they have an advantage in all three of those areas in this match-up.

 

[gardenweasel]

one thing you can`t cap is that every team plays to stop the ravens ground game....they literally have NO downfield passing game......this makes it SOOO much easier to game plan defensively for them...

whereas,at least you have to worry about buffalo throwing with moulds and lee evans...the ravens have nothing close to these guys...and they are woefully deficient at left tackle without ogden....with the jets pass rush,the ravens will struggle to protect kyle`s blindside....and no todd heap....

jamal lewis is not a pass catcher out of the backfield....besides, the "o" line is to big and ponderous without ogden to pull anyway.....

the ravens aren`t really grinding many teams into dust on the ground this year....check it out....they can grind it out on teams like the redskins because the skins offense is so bad that they leave their defense on the field forever...

but most teams...the browns,for instance...have made the adjustments to stop the ravens ground game this year....

i see `em every week...just a horrible offense...a horrible offensive coordinator.....nothing changes....

the ravens have more defensive t.d.`s than passing t.d.`s this year....after 8 games!!!!!!...

that`s mind blowing....

 

[moe777]

Give me Jets ML all day, every day. This Ravens team is not impressive. Really don't like them as a road favorite. They haven't beaten a good team since Week 2. Jets coming off an upset divisional loss....just LOVE them to get back on track here.

Someone make a case for Baltimore please? What am I missing? And yes, I know about Pennington's injury. All the more reason to go with the Jets. FGATIT (First Game After The Injury Theory). Teams come up big in the first game (and ONLY the first game) without their star. This line is just a gross over-reaction to Pennington being out as I see it.

and who have the jets beaten since week 2,miami,buffalo ,san fran and miami wow thats impresive.ravens win this with or without pennington.actually jets have a better chance to win this with Q.carter but they wont

 

[jmizeus]

this game has trap written all over it,dont you guys think? during the week i like to look at the games vs the lines, and this is the only 1 that made me look again at.
6-2 jets team at home at a pick? even with out pennington i would have to think jets -2 to -2'?

have to go with ravens here, vegas to me wants all the ny money they can get,and they will get it. gl