Two plays offered for consideration:
Tampa Bay -1 vs. Baltimore
Home favorites with something to play for are usually a good bet this time of year. Laying less than a FG in this contest, Tampa is a real bargain. Bucs complete the regular season with a favorable schedule -- playing their final three games at home. Bucs are 12-1 SU in December under coach Dungy and should finish strongly and pick up a playoff spot. Ravens defense is not nearly as dominant as their reputation suggests (evidence: C. Dillon ran for 127 yards last week?. Bengals were shutout 16-0 largely because of the Bengals' miserable passing attack). Ravens' defense has allowed 26, 27, 21, and 27 points in the previous four games prior to last week. That's not dominance -- that's mediocrity. Meanwhile, Ravens offense continues to be suspect, putting up only 16 points in a critical divisional game at home last week. In that game, Ravens failed to convert any 3rd downs in their final 8 attempts. Those kinds of numbers do not support the idea of Ravens going out on the road in a non-conference game and picking up a win versus a decent team. Last week, Tampa used quick passes to keep the Saints defense off-balance and will likely try that tactic again this week. QB Brad Johnson was not sacked even once in the New Orleans game, as Bucs used slants and sideline patterns to consistently burn the secondary and control the game clock. Bucs running game also looked strong and should pick up yards here against a defensive line that is now very banged up. Tampa is at home, is healthier, plays more consistent defense, and probably needs to win this game more than the Ravens (Baltimore gets a wild card spot if they win either of their final two games -- and they get Minnesota at home next week, while Tampa faces Phila -- so this is a MUST WIN game for Tampa). Of some concern -- Bucs kicker Gramatica may miss this game because of an injury. Bucs were auditioning kickers this week. I'll still go with the Bucs to win and cover the small number.
PROPOSITION:
TEAM TO HAVE THE MOST NET RUSHING YARDS:
TAMPA BAY +150 (at Olympic)
Bengal's Dillon ran for 130 yards last week and Ravens defensive line is banged up. I figure this is a just about an even money proposition to break either way, so I'm going to go with the value and take advantage of a bad line (+150). If Tampa builds an early lead, Ravens have shown they are quick to abandon the run and start passing. Ravens don't have the quality of running game to be favored on the road 3-2 on this kind of proposition. An easy decision here to go with Tampa.
-- Nolan Dalla
Tampa Bay -1 vs. Baltimore
Home favorites with something to play for are usually a good bet this time of year. Laying less than a FG in this contest, Tampa is a real bargain. Bucs complete the regular season with a favorable schedule -- playing their final three games at home. Bucs are 12-1 SU in December under coach Dungy and should finish strongly and pick up a playoff spot. Ravens defense is not nearly as dominant as their reputation suggests (evidence: C. Dillon ran for 127 yards last week?. Bengals were shutout 16-0 largely because of the Bengals' miserable passing attack). Ravens' defense has allowed 26, 27, 21, and 27 points in the previous four games prior to last week. That's not dominance -- that's mediocrity. Meanwhile, Ravens offense continues to be suspect, putting up only 16 points in a critical divisional game at home last week. In that game, Ravens failed to convert any 3rd downs in their final 8 attempts. Those kinds of numbers do not support the idea of Ravens going out on the road in a non-conference game and picking up a win versus a decent team. Last week, Tampa used quick passes to keep the Saints defense off-balance and will likely try that tactic again this week. QB Brad Johnson was not sacked even once in the New Orleans game, as Bucs used slants and sideline patterns to consistently burn the secondary and control the game clock. Bucs running game also looked strong and should pick up yards here against a defensive line that is now very banged up. Tampa is at home, is healthier, plays more consistent defense, and probably needs to win this game more than the Ravens (Baltimore gets a wild card spot if they win either of their final two games -- and they get Minnesota at home next week, while Tampa faces Phila -- so this is a MUST WIN game for Tampa). Of some concern -- Bucs kicker Gramatica may miss this game because of an injury. Bucs were auditioning kickers this week. I'll still go with the Bucs to win and cover the small number.
PROPOSITION:
TEAM TO HAVE THE MOST NET RUSHING YARDS:
TAMPA BAY +150 (at Olympic)
Bengal's Dillon ran for 130 yards last week and Ravens defensive line is banged up. I figure this is a just about an even money proposition to break either way, so I'm going to go with the value and take advantage of a bad line (+150). If Tampa builds an early lead, Ravens have shown they are quick to abandon the run and start passing. Ravens don't have the quality of running game to be favored on the road 3-2 on this kind of proposition. An easy decision here to go with Tampa.
-- Nolan Dalla
