Bases Mon 10/13 - playoffs

[Junior44]

Regular Season YTD: +182.01u
MLB Playoffs YTD: -8.21u 🤒

Well.....the drought continues, now down 8+ units for the playoffs. Please be aware that I haven't changed anything about the way I handicap, just in a dreadful slump at a bad time. You guys have my word that I am doing my best. There's alot of games left and I will continue to provide my picks and do my write-ups every day throughout the rest of the season, just like I have since day 1. here's to the future........

Jr44

 

[Junior44]

Toronto -125 (3x)
-I'll start by saying that almost everybody was on the Jays last night (give or take a few) and i would make the same bet again if given then opportunity again, just didn't work out. Today, I'm going right back to the Jays to take game #2 I'll go right back to my write-up last night to explain why. The Blue Jays come into this game an exceptional 56-28 at home this season for a a positive outcome of +$1848! while Seattle is a very mediocre 41-43 on the road this season. They have won 6 of 7 games at home and are a staggering 34-12 at home since Jul 2! During that 7 game stretch they have scored 55 runs for an average of 7.86 runs per game! Tonight, they start rookie Trey Yesavage who in 4 major league starts (including 1 playoff game) is a perfect 4-0 with an ERA of 2.33. He has started 2 games at home going 2-0 giving up 0 runs on 5 hits in 11 1/3 inning pitched striking out 16! In his 1 playoff start, he shutout the Yankees (at home) in 5 1/3 IP, giving up 0 runs on 0 hits and striking out 11! This kid is for real folks and its obvious that the playoff stage doesn't rattle him. Seattle, meanwhile, starts RHP Logan Gilbert, who had a medicore season, going 6-6 with an ERA of 3.44. However, he was only 3-4 on the road with an ERA of 4.74 and an opponents BA of .271! His current from is very good, with Seattle going 4-1 in his last 5 starts. However, he has only reached the 100 pitch plateau once this season and has only gone more than 6 IP once this season as well. He had 1 start vs Toronto this year giving up 2 ER on 7 hits in 4 1/3 IP in a no-decision and in 6 career starts vs Toronto he is 0-2 with an ERA of 5.24! In addition, current Toronto batters have hit .309 against Gilbert in their career, with Guerrero, Springer and Santander combined going 13 for 36 (.361 BA) with 5 HR's against him. Play Toronto for (3x)

 

[Junior44]

Seattle/Toronto Over 7'
-These 2 teams combined for 180-144 to the Over this season and in their last 10 head-to-head matchup they are 7-3 to the over. Gilbert is 4-1 to the Over his last 5 starts, while Yesavage is 2-2 to the Over. Play Seattle/Toronto Over 7' for 1x.....

 

[Junior44]

Milwaukee +129 (2x) and Under 8 for (1x)
-Milwaukee comes into tonight's game #1 of their series with the Dodgers with a 55-29 record at home (one of the best in baseball) for a positive outcome of +$2058! They have won 8-straight games vs the Dodgers head-to-head including 5-straight at home. Tonight, the Brewers start RHP Quinn Priester who was an outstanding 13-3 this season overall with an ERA of 3.32! His splits are excellent going 7-2 at home and going 9-2 at night! He had 1 start this season vs Los Angeles, shutting them out on 3 hits and 0 ER's in 6 IP with 10 K's! Meanwhile, the Dodgers just aren't the same team on the road as they are at home, going a very pedestrian 43-40. Tonight, the Dodgers start LHP Blake Snell who is a formidable 5-4 on the season with a 2.35 ERA, but is 0-3 on the road with an ERA of 4.30 ERA. In addition, he has a 1-2 career record vs Milwaukee with an ERA of 5.79! In addition, Milwaukee hits lefties very well averaging a tick under .270 during the season. Play Milwaukee as a very live home dog for (2x) and Under 8 -115 for (1x)

 

[ezpickin]

You thought almost everyone was on the Jays last night? Pales in comparison to how many will be on them today!

 

[yanno]

Hi Junior, I realize that you have not changed anything about the way you handicap, but do you think that maybe the playoffs are a different animal from the regular season? Just asking, don't know if you have experienced this in the past, I know you've been doing it for a long time.

Another thought is that baseball is a high variance sport, statistically speaking. Which means that anything can freaking happen. And often does. So it may not be you and your handicapping. Stuff happens. Good luck and glad you are hanging in there!

 

[Junior44]

Hi Junior, I realize that you have not changed anything about the way you handicap, but do you think that maybe the playoffs are a different animal from the regular season? Just asking, don't know if you have experienced this in the past, I know you've been doing it for a long time.

Another thought is that baseball is a high variance sport, statistically speaking. Which means that anything can freaking happen. And often does. So it may not be you and your handicapping. Stuff happens. Good luck and glad you are hanging in there!

thanks for your input yanno......Actually no, I've always done good in the playoffs in the past. I started out this year very well and for some reason just hit a big slump. Can't put a finger on it, but im still plugging along........you are one of the good guys at MJ's and have always respected you and your picks in the POD thread! thanks again for sharing.

 

[nikko718]

Hey junior. Is see Ashby starting for brew crew

Good luck today !!

 

[Junior44]

Hey junior. Is see Ashby starting for brew crew

Good luck today !!

oh GREAT........that's what happens when you post overnight! maybe he is just an opener? Still like the Brewers at home.........although part of my write-up is for naught. Maybe Priester will pitch at some point..........don't understand this move at all. I will dig into this a little deeper and let you guys know what i find.........Any more info is appreciated

 

[AimHigh]

per Todd Rosiak Milwaukee Brewers beat writer-Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
@4:15pm EST - Pat Murphy says the odds of Quinn Priester pitching tonight are "about 71%."

 

[Junior44]

thanks Aim.........but how did he arrive at an off number of 71%

Still can't pass up Milwaukee as a home dog.

 

[Junior44]

very odd.........despite the pitching change.........line hasnt moved

 

[AimHigh]

thanks Aim.........but how did he arrive at an off number of 71%

Still can't pass up Milwaukee as a home dog.

per Todd Rosiak ...
He started at 73%, then dropped to 71%

 

[Junior44]

ok here we go..........let's go Jays!!!

 

[Junior44]

JFC..........3-0 mariners already!! I'm fucking jinxed

 

[Junior44]

well.......alot of game left. toronto bats need to wake up

 

[Plegacy]

well.......alot of game left. toronto bats need to wake up

They will Junior

 

[Plegacy]

Dunn dunnnnn

 

[canuckfan77]

3-1 and pressing

 

[canuckfan77]

3-2