Bases Mon 8/11

[Junior44]

YTD: +91.98u

Milwaukee RL +100 (2x)
-I'm going to stick with this team until I get beat. The Brewers come into tonight's game with Pittsburgh with the best record in baseball at 73-44. They have won 9 in a row and an astounding 23-4 their last 27 games! However -205 is way too expensive for me, so we are going to play the runline. Here is why. Milwaukee starts LHP Jose Quintana who is a nice 9-4 this season with an ERA of 3.57. His current form is also good, going 4-1 his last 5 with an ERA of 3.86. Pittsburgh has a dismal record of just 17-40 on the road this year and they hit just .219 on the road vs lefties (18 pts lower than their average). Meanwhile, the Pirates start LHP Andrew Heaney who is just 4-9 this year with a rather high ERA of 4.77. His current form is even worse, going 1-4 his last 5 starts with an ERA of 6.75. In addition he is just 2-6 in night games with an ERA of 5.16 and a miserable 1-6 on the road with an ERA of 6.55! He is also 0-3 lifetime vs the Brewers, including a 9-3 loss to them this year (in Milwaukee) where he gave up 7 runs on 7 hits, 3 BB's and 3 HR's in just 4 IP. Finally, the Pirates hit just .219 vs lefties. Play Milwaukee on the run line..........

 

[Junior44]

Cincinnati -120
-The Reds come into tonight's game very much in the playoff hunt only 1.5 games behind the Mets in the NL for the last wild card spot. Cincy starts LHP Andrew Abbott who is 8-2 on the year with a nice ERA of 2.34. In addition, he is 4-1 at home with an ERA of 2.05 and 4-0 at night with an ERA of 1.81! Also, Cincy is 3-0 vs the Phillies when Abbott starts, including a 9-6 Reds this year. The Phillies have had major problems with left-handed starters this season going just 13-20, a money burning proposition of -$1460, and all their offensive stats are down vs lefties. Philadelphia starts RHP Tiajuan Walker who is 4-5 with an ERA of 3.53 on the year and has gone as much as 6 innings just once this year and the Phillies are a very mediocre on the road this year, standing at just 31-28. Play Abbott and the Reds at a small fave price.

 

[Junior44]

Detroit/ChiSox Over 8.5
- One of my favorite go against pitchers, Chris Paddack, goes tonight for Detroit, coming in at 4-10 with and ERA of 4.91. On the road, he has an ERA of 5.41 and at night he has an ERA of 5.76. He is already 0-2 this year vs the White Sox, getting shelled for 9 ER's and 3 HR's in just 3 1/2 IP in his last start on the road. Sounds like the White Sox would be the play, but I believe the over is even better. Chicago is 14-4-1 to the over its last 16 games while Detroit is 9-1-1 its last 11 outings. The White Sox are starting Elvis Peguero in his first start of the season, although he has made 6 relief appearences this year, giving up 6 runs in just 7 1/3 IP. The Tigers, who are averaging 4.83 runs per game, should pound this guy early and often while the White Sox should hit Paddack as their history suggests. Play the over in this contest.

 

[Junior44]

Milwaukee/St. Louis +120 (2x)
-For a rundown on Milwaukee, read the writeup above. As far as the other game, St louis comes into tonight's game winners of 3 of 4 and a nice home record of 34-25. They start RHP Miles Mikolas who is having a subpar year but digging deeper, he a 3-0 his last 3 at home, allowing just 2 ER on 11 hits, 1 BB in 15 2/3 IP for an ERA of 1.15! Meanwhile, Colorado comes into tonight game an awful 14-45 record on the road and an overall record of 30-87 (57 games below .500!!) Furthermore, they have been outscored by nearly THREE runs per game. Starting for the Rocks is RHP Chase Dollander who has been an absolute disaster this year, coming in with a 1-9 record and a bloated ERA of 6.88. He is even worse on the road, with an 0-5 record and a 9.29 ERA. At night, he is 0-4 with a 7.27 ERA. In addition, he hasnt pitched since July 6th so he should be a little rusty. I feel that both of these teams should win going away an we get them at a nice underdog price.

 

[Destructor D]

About my only concern with St Louis is coming off the huge Sunday night win and Mikolas has been brutal. Still wouldn't touch the Rockies and best of luck Junior44 as your write ups are excellent!