Bases Wed 4/29
- Thread starter Junior44
- Start date
Chi Cubs (Taillon) vs San Diego (Waldron) Over 9 (3x)
-The first 2 games of this series have seen 11 and 19 runs and I see more of the same today. The Padres have scored 32 runs in their last 4 games, an avg of 8 runs/game. Today San Diego starts RHP Matt Waldron who in 2 starts this year has given up 12 ER's in 8 2/3 IP for and ERA of 12.48. Dating back to last year, his last 5 major league starts, his is 1-4 with and ERA of 12.73 and Waldron, has struggled specifically against the Chicago Cubs, evidenced by a high ERA of 12.46 in limited action. The San Diego bullpen has struggled badly lately giving up 18 ER's in just 6 1/3 IP for an ERA of 25.71 and Waldron tops out at about 4-5 IP per start.
-The first 2 games of this series have seen 11 and 19 runs and I see more of the same today. The Padres have scored 32 runs in their last 4 games, an avg of 8 runs/game. Today San Diego starts RHP Matt Waldron who in 2 starts this year has given up 12 ER's in 8 2/3 IP for and ERA of 12.48. Dating back to last year, his last 5 major league starts, his is 1-4 with and ERA of 12.73 and Waldron, has struggled specifically against the Chicago Cubs, evidenced by a high ERA of 12.46 in limited action. The San Diego bullpen has struggled badly lately giving up 18 ER's in just 6 1/3 IP for an ERA of 25.71 and Waldron tops out at about 4-5 IP per start.
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Chi Cubs (Taillon) -110 over San Diego (Waldron) (1x)
-Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon is 3-2 this year with and ERA of 4.55. In his career vs the Padres, he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.40 and 23 strikeouts in 5 appearances versus the Padres in his career. Matt Waldron has a 3-6 record during the day with a 5.61 ERA, 47 strikeouts, and a 1.34 WHIP over 13 games (12 starts), while Taillon often maintains a lower ERA during the day. See above write up for more details on Matt Waldron.
-Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon is 3-2 this year with and ERA of 4.55. In his career vs the Padres, he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.40 and 23 strikeouts in 5 appearances versus the Padres in his career. Matt Waldron has a 3-6 record during the day with a 5.61 ERA, 47 strikeouts, and a 1.34 WHIP over 13 games (12 starts), while Taillon often maintains a lower ERA during the day. See above write up for more details on Matt Waldron.
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Baltimore (Bassitt) -118 over Houston (Lambert) (1x)
-My disdain and low expectations for Houston have been well documented in this forum in 2026 and here is another line that is way out of whack. The Astros are 11-19, the worst record in the AL, and are just 3-11 at home. Baltimore, who I believe has a higher ceiling than what they have shown, start RHP Chris Bassitt tonight who has a 3-0 record thus far at home with an ERA of 3.53. Bassitt has a career record of 42-33 at home. In 2025, Bassitt had notable home/road splits, pitching better at home (8-0, 2.71 ERA) compared to on the road. Meanwhile, Houston starter Peter Lambert has a record of 9-20 in his career for an ERA of 6.15. Play the O's in this one.
-My disdain and low expectations for Houston have been well documented in this forum in 2026 and here is another line that is way out of whack. The Astros are 11-19, the worst record in the AL, and are just 3-11 at home. Baltimore, who I believe has a higher ceiling than what they have shown, start RHP Chris Bassitt tonight who has a 3-0 record thus far at home with an ERA of 3.53. Bassitt has a career record of 42-33 at home. In 2025, Bassitt had notable home/road splits, pitching better at home (8-0, 2.71 ERA) compared to on the road. Meanwhile, Houston starter Peter Lambert has a record of 9-20 in his career for an ERA of 6.15. Play the O's in this one.
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Atlanta (Ritchie) +133 over Detroit (Skubal) (2x)
-Atlanta, at 21-9, has the best record in baseball and have gone 12-2 their last 14. At 171, they have scored more runs than anybody in baseball and they have a run differencial of +67 (again, best in baseball.) Tonight, they start JR Ritchie, who, in his first major league start on April 23 got the win, holding the Nats to 2 runs over 7 IP while striking out 7. Tonight the Braves face the Tigers' Tarik Skubal who is 0-2 on the road this year and, remarkably is only 26-26 career on the road with an ERA of 3.64. Tarik Skubal has a 0-1 career record against the Atlanta Braves, with a 11.25 ERA. He has allowed 5 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts over 4 innings pitched against them. In addition, the Tigers are only 5-13 on the road this season so I'm going to take a shot at the Braves as a big home underdog...
-Atlanta, at 21-9, has the best record in baseball and have gone 12-2 their last 14. At 171, they have scored more runs than anybody in baseball and they have a run differencial of +67 (again, best in baseball.) Tonight, they start JR Ritchie, who, in his first major league start on April 23 got the win, holding the Nats to 2 runs over 7 IP while striking out 7. Tonight the Braves face the Tigers' Tarik Skubal who is 0-2 on the road this year and, remarkably is only 26-26 career on the road with an ERA of 3.64. Tarik Skubal has a 0-1 career record against the Atlanta Braves, with a 11.25 ERA. He has allowed 5 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts over 4 innings pitched against them. In addition, the Tigers are only 5-13 on the road this season so I'm going to take a shot at the Braves as a big home underdog...
Being down 10x is legit nothing. Keep plugging away.
Take some of the pressure off yourself, at least from my perspective this is all for fun, you will make a comeback, and if not, its all good. Good luck today!
Don't be too hard on yourself. Lots if crazy shit in baseball, sometimes it benefits the bet and sometimes not. Always appreciate your writeups Junior.
Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
Don’t stress it Jr. Two years ago I was going 11-2 13-4 in ncaaf every week. Picking games seemed so easy. Last year I was barely above .500 using the same forecasting I’ve always used. Keep plugging
Thanks guys for all the likes, posts and enthusiam............much appreciated 
* I had this total posted as 8'......it was a typo......it opened at 9 and it was always 9, so I'm grading it as a push. I can't even win when I think I win. and the beat goes on..............
