Baylor-Tex st

[Box and one]

Baylor -13.5 over Texas State *******
This line is way off.. think its the best line to start off the season. Baylor under new coach had a bad year. Aranda def coord of LSU came over after Rule left for NFL Aranda had no spring practice to put in his new offense. This game is on sept 4th at Tex state.. its an away game for baylor yet think they will have more fans in the stadium. Tx St improved on its offense last year but its defense is a problem. They started out ok except the UTSA game where they gave up 51 pts in an over time loss but they ended the season giving up 49,45,40,38,44 and 52..to BYU,La Laf,Appa St,Geo So,Ark st and Coastal.Ended the season at 2-10 despite playing BC and SMoo close at the beginning of the season. Tx St did find a decent qb in McBride but he got hurt and Vitt the qb from last yr came in. This year they have a transfer from NC State and will give you more info on him in a week or two. In 2006,07 and 08 Tx st opened up against Tex Am and was -33. They lost 41-7. in '18 rutgers which I had big +16 and they lost 35-7.. year before that vs Arkansas -30 and they lost 42-3.. But last yr was +23 over Smoo and covered 31-24 in a loss. It was the 1st time in awhile they covered but I was at the game and Smu should of won by 4 td's .
Baylor in its spring game didn't have a qb yet. But with an uptempo and "air it out offense that has a year to prepare and a solid defense will win by 3 or more Td's. Think this line will jump closer to the game on Sept 4th . Will come back next week and break this game down. Last yr Txst lost to UTSA 51-48 and the year before Baylor beat UTSA 63-14. I know that is a span of 2 yrs and UTSA has really improved but think Baylor defense will shut down tx St offense and no way bobcats defense can stop the Bears. Am I season ticket holder now of the Tx St Bobcats. Went to every home game and love their coach and with McBride at qb they have really improved but again cannot see them stopping the Bears .
back next week for more info ..on vacation on the Jersey shore near Atlantic City Just made a few plays and pounded Baylor at Tropicana .. Will break down some of the player and match ups.
Still capping UTSA-Illinois and liking both ..tough game to capp..should pass but probably won't

 

[Box and one]

They only lost to BC 24-21 and although a 23 pt dog to Smu they only lost 31-24.. Don't have stats in front of me but Smu should of won and covered . Their best player Haydel the wr punt ret kickoff ret and the best pair of hands in any conference graduated . A huge loss. Bobcats wr's are small and don't have much speed. Barbee is back and he had a good year getting 10 td's but getting separation from Smoo's def backfield is a problem. OL is also going to be a problem vs big Baylor front 4. Baylor has transfer and probably the Def POY in the Sun in LSU transfer 6'9 coca cola machine body 290 pounds Ika. Baylor has 10 players back from last yrs team on defense that played a lot 5 starters .. McBride is the favorite to qb but Evans the transfer might bench McBride for Bobcats . Baylor has a good pass defense and has size and quickness on the line,Lb's and backfield. Bernard is a big time LB for the Bears. Aranda is known for his defense and will have a good pass rush and and coverage in the B-12. Can their offense score. Think with their qb Bohanon who is mobile and can pass and 3 wr's that can be explosive and Ebner and Lovett at running back Tx D is in trouble. Baylors OL was terrible last year. This is what they have improved on with the transfer portal with a guy from Buffalo and Vandy. They had no running game and Brewer who was the qb for 4 yrs transferred to utah . Qb battle has been going on and most think Bohanon who is mobile should win the job over pocket passer Zeno. Will up date this battle in the next few weeks.

I like Spavital the Tx st coach. Hear him on the radio and he is so much into his Bobcats. But these guys have gone 2-10,3-9,2-10,2-10 and this is his 3rd year. They did replace BYU,BC, and SMU with Incarnate Word and Eastern Mich this year. And the Sun conf did have some good teams in Coastal,Appa St ,Troy and La Laf.. I can see Spavital giving these teams a run for their money with 17 returning starters back but Baylor is the wrong team to open with. Baylor coming off disappointing year should have the basketball team in the lockeroom giving them a pep talk on Sept 4th. I will be at the game and if I see any hoop players there will let everyone know.

 

[Box and one]

will just keep adding info . Grimes the new off coord at baylor was at BYU in the same position last year and they beat Tx St 52-14 so he knows there defense and had no problem with them I know BYU had a qb who was drafted by the Jets but still he knows the Tex St defensive schemes that really have the same personnel back

 

[Box and one]

Baylor line is still -13.5 thought it would go up and still think it will before the Sept 4 th game Baylor had a disappointing year in 1st year coach Arenda from LSU . Baylor defense has almost everybody back with a few big time players in their linebacker Bernard and db Pitre . Both all 1st team All Big -12 and their defense was ranked one of the best last yr in the B-12 Its offense was the one that was disappointing. They had trouble rushing the ball .Their 4 yr qb Brewer has transferred to Utah and although his numbers were pretty good he was inconsistent. Arenda was going to bench him but was reluctant being a 1st yr coach and benching Brewer a 4 yr starter . QB battle for the Bears is still going on between Zeno and Bohanon ..both are capable qb's and with Off Coor Grimes who comes from BYU think Baylors game plan and attack are similar to what he did at BYU last yr when they destroyed Tx st 52-14. I know BYU had a big time qb but think Grimes has an advantage after his game plan last year and gets to see the Tex defense again Tx st defense is the problem. They gave up 52,44,38,40,45,and 49 and also 48 in ot loss to UTSA ..

Tx st will spread out offense but think lack of running game will hurt them . Both backs Hill and Sturgis are 5'10 and 5'11 and Ol is going to have a real tough time vs Baylors D-line. esp with them adding Ika the transfer from LSU who is built like a coke machine. Baylor is more athletic and much quicker on defense. Pitre is a safety and one of the best. Think Bears defense will blitz and force turnovers . Baylor is improved on the Off line with a few transfers from Bufflao and Vandy . Baylor added wr's from Auburn Pressly and Estrada and Dartmouth. But the real star of this game will be Bears rb Ebner who had 4 tds vs Kansas. But he was the POY on sp teams last yr in the B-12. He will run one back or return a punt and score. Think he will also have a big game rushing the ball

Think Brady will start for Tx St at qb and the battle in Waco still is going on. Baylor went 2-7 in Aranda's 1st yr. Think Baylor has improved and in the last couple of years on opening day they always play a weaker team . Last yr they beat Kansas 47-14, SFA 56-17 the year before that and Abilene Christian 55-27 Although Tex St might be better then those teams think the Bears although an away game gets a big crowd and wins big .

 

[Box and one]

Baylor -13.5 over Texas St ******
Baylor announced today their starting qb. Bohanan won over Zeno. Zeno has the better arm but off coord Grimes knows who he wants to lead his " wide open zone attack " this year. Grimes was the BYU off coord who last years offense had no problem blowing out Tex St 52-14. BYU did lose to Coastal Car another Sun conf team 22-17 but I was at the Coastal-Tx St game where Coastal blew out Tx St 49-14..
Baylor is loaded after last years collapse.. Arenda LSU def coor 1st year as a head coach was a big time failure and disappointment. But he was left with a full cupboard of players. Brewer the qb for 4 years transferred to Utah, Arrenda almost benched him last yr because he was inconsistent although had no running game and no Of-line Think he was sacked 25-30 times . Had a few concussions and in the huddle when they were playing Iowa St, he thought he was going against Oklahoma St.. Good luck Utah where he transferred too.
Baylor has a mobile qb and hit the transfer portal and rebuilt their Off line. Gall from Buffalo and another big time off linemen. Baylor had no running attack but Ebner is explosive and was the B-12 sp team player of the yr running back a punt and kick off for touchdown. Ebner had 4 tds last yr on opening day vs Kansas. Then Abram Smith a line backer has been moved to the fullback position and is a power runner and will be a major factor in this offense.. Baylor has depth and talent at WR. Sneed is a high light receiver playmaker who catches the ball with his hands and is off and running. Thornton who in 2018-19 had big years but last yr tailed off is 6'3 and can fly. Then they have speedster Fleets at 5'10 . Then transfer Estrada from Dartmouth .. they have depth and with Grimes "open zone offense will give defenses fits. Now lets throw in Simms at 6'4 253. Baylor never uses its tight ends but Grimes does. He did it at BYU and Simms can catch and block. In fact Grimes at BYU he used 3 tight ends on some sets. Tight end has been somewhat a " forgotten position " Esp when Briles had his air raid offense Back up Dabney is also a force at TE. Grimes uses his tight ends as H-backs who block on running plays lining up right behind the Tackle . On a Baylor podcast someone said there is a possibility that baylor could have 3 tight ends in the game on the same play. Last time that happened was 1952.
Tex st defense is going to have problems everywhere. Stopping Ebner and fb Smith. Trying to stop wr's and tight end . And Bohanon although has a decent arm can be mobile and run. He will not get sacked like Brewer did who sitting in the pocket.
The key is the off line which was baylors Achilles heel last yr Think they have improved big time there and will pounce on Tx St big time. Arenda came from LSU with big time hope and he fell on his face in Waco the 1st year. This year he wakes up and lets Grimes run his offense and he runs the defense which is one of the best in the B-12 with superstar a LB and safety
.

 

[elmer fudd]

tailing ya..bol

 

[Box and one]

Line had been over 9 for a long time . dropped yesterday . Texas has Sarkasian the former head coach of USC fired because of drinking. Then Saban hired him a his off coord at Alabama where he called all the offensive plays the past few years. Sarkasian . Texas has a lot of talent that Hermann who was fired left including I think the best running back in the country in Bijon Robinson. Hermann platooned him all year and I believe was one of the biggest factors in his firing. [among others} At Starks press conference a few weeks ago someone asked " how many times will Bijon get the ball? " Starks answer was " it depends on what the defense is doing but maybe 15-20 or 25 times . I knew Starks just had Naja Harris at bama win the Heisman and I think Bijon will follow. Texas does has of lot of unknowns. New qb Card just beat out Thompson Alamo Hero . Red shirt freshmen who can pass and run. I play racquetball everyday here in Austin with someone from Lake Travis and he says Card is amazing. Has a nice arm but says he could be the fastest player on the roster. Now Texas is replacing Ehlinger another scrambler and runner but my buddy says Card in HS is even better. But college is another challenge.

Texas wide receivers,Off line and defense are unknown. Napier the head coach at La Laf coached under Debo and Sabin so he knows how to coach . He was 10-1 and has won over 22 games the past 2 years. He is returning almost his entire team and last yr went up to Iowa St and upset them. They ended up 15th in the nation. I got to see La Laf last year sitting in row 5 vs Tex St. Their qb who is 5'10 but from row 5 looks 5'5 Levi Lewis I loved. He can throw and run out of the pocket. Not having a program I could only take notes on 2 index cards I brought. Trying to read those notes a year later is tough. : love qb big time, OL opening up holes for Mitchell and Regas. Love Regas . Is about 5'10 but just runs over people. Impressed with OL because they protect and open up holes. Now Tex St defense sucks . Laf won 44-34 and I had Laf at -16. Texas did score and its Lafs defense that will have problems with Texas on Saturday. Although they have 10 starters back on defense the 34 was the most points they gave up all year. Laf is not going to surprise anyone like they did last year in Ames. They were a +11 visiting team playing a good Iowa St team with Breece Hall the top rb and Purdy a top qb in the B-12 and beat them 31-14. Cyclones shocked at home by a small Sun Conf team. But it woke the Cyclones up because 2 weeks later they upset Oklahoma 37-30.

Napier will not be at Laf next year. His resume and success at Laf will land him a big time coaching position. He prepares his teams so well and out coaches his opponents. BUT to me this is the key. How do you prepare for Texas New coach,new system,new players, so much hype on Starks 1st game. Starks knows everything about the Ragin cagins because the entire team is back. Huge advantage for the Longorns. Napier knows the offense will be built around Bijon but thats it. Napier needs to to the alabama tapes and Washington tapes { his defense coord school" and take out Lake Travis HS tapes of Card. Laf laf is at a big disadvantage.. Is there a 1st qrt line or half time line out yet. That could be the best play.

Anyway back later with more info Like Texas -8 now

Still love Baylor -13.5 over Texas St and 1st half line if its -7 or 8 or 9 wow Bears win big

 

[Box and one]

Baylor -13.5 over Tx St ******

Baylor 1st half -7 ***

Baylor wins big.. More baylor fans will be at the Tx Stadium tomorrow Baylors defense is as good as any team in the B-12 Its offense was the problem With bohanon at qb and Ebner and Smith at running back and Sims at TE there is no way Tx st defense can stop them or even slow them down. Baylor has Bernard on of the top LB's and Pitre a hybrid LB or corner or safety. Bobcat has a solid qb in McBride but Baylor pass rush will be to much Ita the coke machine DT will be a force in the middle so 5'10 Hill and Sturgis Bobcat running backs have to go outside because the Lincoln tunnel will be closed down for repairs .. Watch out for Ebner Baylors POY of B-12 sp teams this year. He will have a breakout season . He ended the season with 4 td's vs Kansas and will return a td via a punt or kickoff tomorrow. or a rushing td

love this game big time The line has stayed at -13.5 Will come back sunday and report about this game .I have season tickets row 15 on the 50 so my view is good Will come back and pat myself on the back or make excuses about not covering, Those refs suck ,etc Good luck to everyone .Hopefully Baylor brings there basketball team for the half time pep talk but think they will be up by a few touchdowns by half..

 

[BASON]

I will ride it with you Box!

 

[PJ12]

I will ride it with you Box!

If he rides I ride :0074
GL Mr Box and e1

 

[Box and one]

Going to the game tonight It was moved to a later time . Just 20 miles north of san marcus Texas will play La Laf at 3.30. in Austin. Temperatures should be around 103 by game time. At least its a 6 oclock game at Tex St. Hopefully the sun will beginning to set and it will be a little cooler They are expecting a sellout tonight. Prediction is there will be more fans in the stands for baylor then the home team Bobcats.
Arenda the baylor coach said " " not going to waste anytime to establish an identity ,we want to show a strong identity,execute fundamentals,and show that we can run the football . After last seasons 2-7 record I think the Bears come out smok'in . Think Ebner scores a touchdown on a kickoff or punt return, Bears defense shuts down Tex offense and Baylor wins by 3 or 4 tiuchdowns, Bobcats don't have the speed or athletes to keep up with the Bears.

Baylor -13.5 over Texas St ******
1st half -7 ***

Texas -8 over La Laf *****
Tex AM -28.5 over Kent ***
Army +3 over Ga St ***
Iilli -4.5 over UTSA **

best play and should just play one game is Baylor... good luck today to everyone

 

[oxnardca1]

You have great insight Box!!!

On top of That, the volume of games that attend are impressive!
Enjoy the game and BOL on the wagers!!!! 🤝🏼 🤝🏼🤝🏼

 

[oxnardca1]

Hopefully The weather out in San Marcos isn't too Hot N humid

 

[Box and one]

My bad Baylor won 29-20 and didn't cover I'm sorry for steering some the wrong way. Crazy game where Baylor up 14 with 3 minutes and in FG goal range and go for it 4th and 17 ..Not sure why since your at the game and not really knowing whats going on. Tx st scores and at the end it was 27-20 and Tx is trying a helter skelter last second play and Baylor gets a safety. Its confusing when you not hearing play by play or any analysis . But it doesn't really matter Baylor didn't cover the -13.5 .
Baylor qb had Sneed and Thorton wide open on a few plays. Thornton had beaten his man by 5 yds and Baylor QB Bohannon over threw him by 5 yards. Had zero touch or feel on the long passes.
Baylor defense was solid but never put pressure on Brady Tx St qb. He had all day in the pocket and when he was flushed out was mobile and either hit on a short pass or rushed it himself.
Baylor fumbled 2 times in Tx territory and then had a roughing the punter penalty that Tx scored a FG on.
Tx state should of lost by over 20 but hung in . Baylor did have its running game going but Bohanon is a terrible passer. Tx st played well and hung around the whole game . Thought I would still cover at the end but not sure what the Baylor coaches were thinking at the end. Up 14 with about 3 minutes left and you go for it on 4th and 17.
Baylor DL looked bad. Itu is 300 pounds but he never penetrated .. Just sat there like his nickname Coke Machine and clogged up the middle.
Tx st had a huge crowd despite a big crowd from Baylor . But Bears need to improve once the B-12 season opens . Not impressed with Arenda the coach and now can see why they were 2-7 last yr. Think Spitival out coached Baylor and kept his team in the game. McBride in the 1st quarter threw a down and out pass that the Baylor cb stepped in and intercepted it for an easy touchdown. Like McBride a lot. He does have that Manziel look and don't think he was ever sacked Baylor had no pass rush so Tx St OL did handle them . Yet Bobcats couldn't open up holes for their running backs Don't have stats in front of me but both got maybe 45-50 yds each.
Again my bad and sorry for steering some of you the wrong way. Will do better .

 

[PJ12]

My bad Baylor won 29-20 and didn't cover I'm sorry for steering some the wrong way.
Again my bad and sorry for steering some of you the wrong way. Will do better .

Dont sweat it , we're used to it! :142smilie

Just kiddin, yea sumtimes it just doesn't turn out how you think Box. Dats this wonderful world of gambling:shrug:

Keep pluggin :toast:

 

[oxnardca1]

Hey Box,

We all Have Finshes like this. To make it worse, is being present physically for them.
This is only the beginning of the year, and we will. Have ups, downs and all arounds.
That's why it's called gambling.
Imagine if the Helter Skelter turned into a Baylor TD???
Win some, lose some....... Gotta be in it to win it!!!!! 🤝🏼 🤝🏼🤝🏼