BC Distaff

[Valuist]

Usually the chalkiest of the BC events, I'm going to go against the favorite Azeri. Casual fans will probably be all over her, with her 9 wins in 10 starts but she has a few negatives: her top figures were in the spring, and she's had a steady (although not huge) decline in her speed figures. There's also the question of the opposition she's beaten; she's basically beaten Affluent and Starrer, who are not in the same league as the top fillies and mares in the East.

I think the horses to beat are a pair of 3 YOs. TAKE CHARGE LADY handles the distance and is in great form; IMPERIAL GESTURE has great speed and is razor sharp; she defeated TCL on Sept 7 at Belmont. Her last race was more impressive than it looks on paper. She dueled with another horse and they were around 7 lengths clear of the rest of the field. SUMMER COLONY could win if the speed falls apart, but she had a fast pace to run at last time and still couldn't get it done.

 

[SeattleSlew]

I think Summer Colony will be grossly overlooked on Saturday, and TCL and Azeri will get most of the attention (as well as Imperial Gesture, perhaps)...

If I am going to bet this race, I will bet one of the ignored horses: Summer Colony, Farda Amiga, Mandy's Gold.....

Farda and Mandy's have strong late kicks, and at least have to be considered for exactas or tris...

SLEW

 

[Valuist]

Of the horses you mention, I like Farda Amiga the best. I thought Summer Colony and Mandy's Gold had perfect setups with a real fast pace in front of them, and they still couldnt win. 1 1/8 miles at Arlington favors speed; the turns are real long and by the time the horses hit the straightaway after the clubhouse turn, there's only about 5.5 furlongs to run.

 

[SeattleSlew]

The layout might favor speed, but the track plays pretty fair..

I can't throw out a horse because of one race (Summer Colony), especially since that race wasn't her preferred distance....will be a bigger price on Saturday simply because of that ONE race; could be a indicator of form, or could have just been a poor effort at a shorter distance...it's a gamble, but some of the others here at shorter prices have just as many questions...

SLEW

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Have had longest layoff on horses (no bets since Belmont Stakes) that I can remember.Like tris and they have made that a losing prop with huge cut of pots.Will throw one in here though. Like both your thinkings as I do not care for Azeri either as most his damage was done on left coast.
Will throw $24 at a $1 tri of 5-2,3,6,8 and 2,3,6,8-5-2,3,6,8