BCS breakdown: Dissecting the lines for the five big bowls

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BCS breakdown: Dissecting the lines for the five big bowls

Everyone saw it.

Alabama dominated mighty Florida. A few hours later, Texas needed a few breaks and a last-second field goal to beat a Nebraska team with a great defense but absolutely no offense.

It?s safe to say Nick Saban?s team finished the season playing better football than Mack Brown?s Longhorns. So when the Crimson Tide opened as only a 4-point favorite over Texas, everyone pounced.

Pete Korner, owner and head oddsmaker of The Sports Club in Las Vegas, anticipated the early action on the Crimson Tide, but completely expects the number to settle back down around four with even action on both sides by the Jan. 7 kick off.

?If the game was played this week, Alabama would have been -7,? said Korner. ?But we?ve seen it so many times, these teams playing their best football at the end of the season, only to have a month off before the bowl game. It?s a momentum stopper.

?Even though, it?s up to just under a touchdown, we still believe we will have good two-way action at number below six by kickoff.?

Stay tuned.

On Monday, Korner and bodog.com sportsbook manager Richard Gardner shared their thoughts on the opening point spreads for all of the BCS bowl games.

BCS National Championship Game

Texas vs. Alabama (-5.5), 8 p.m., Jan. 7

The Skinny: Judging by the last two weeks, it is hard to find any reasons why Texas should be able to hang around within one touchdown of Alabama. But that didn?t stop oddsmakers from posting the Tide as only 4-point favorites.

In fact, Korner said his shop was split between Alabama -3 and -4.

Which way it will move: Korner is confident the number is coming down and will settle below six with even money on the Tide and Horns.

Gardner?s not quite as sure, saying ?I do not think that the number will be pushed to Alabama -7, but if the bettors continue to bet Alabama as aggressively as they have, I would not be surprised to see Alabama -6.5 by kickoff.?

Orange Bowl

Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (-3), 8 p.m., Jan. 5

The Skinny: This one was the most difficult number for Gardner to get a handle on, and Korner says it?s basically a Pick ?em game.

Georgia Tech opened as a 3-point favorite. Early money has bumped the number to 3.5 at some books.

Which way will it move: It?s hard to get a good read on Iowa. For every impressive win (Arizona and Penn State), there?s a questionable performance against Northern Iowa or Arkansas State.

How good are the Hawkeyes? No one seems to know for sure and that?s why Gardner doesn?t expect this number to move too much.

?We expect the line to hold solid at -3.5 and to write up action on both sides,? Gardner said.

Fiesta Bowl

TCU(-7) vs. Boise State, 8 p.m., Jan. 4

The Skinny: ?We were shocked when this number started going up at eight,? said Korner. ?We were way off. We had it a three.?

For a battle of undefeated teams, the eight points TCU was favored by to start seemed high to a lot gamblers. It?s since dropped to seven due to action on the Broncos.

Which way will it move: Everyone expects this number to hover around a touchdown. Korner and Gardner agree that it is more likely to finish below seven than over. So Boise State backers would be wise to get down quickly.

Rose Bowl

Oregon (-3.5) vs. Ohio State, 4:30 p.m., Jan. 1

The Skinny: The Ducks opened as field-goal favorites, but were bumped up to 3.5 at most books almost immediately.

Ohio State has become accustomed to this type of disrespect and has responded in a profitable fashion.

Talk bad about the Big Ten and Ohio State all you want, but the Buckeyes went 9-3 against the spread this year.

Which way will it move: The initial move toward the Ducks is because of a Big Ten bias and Ohio State?s recent poor performances in big games. Oregon may be getting the early money, but this isn?t expected to move too far off the opening field goal.

Sugar Bowl

Florida (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati, 8:30 p.m., Jan. 1

The Skinny: Is a letdown worth more toward the spread than a coaching controversy? By the time, the Distraction Bowl kicks off on New Year?s Day in New Orleans, Brian Kelly could be the Notre Dame coach and Urban Meyer could be blaming his team?s SEC Championship Game loss on his own dehydration.

Korner doesn?t believe the Gators will be too depressed over their loss to Alabama to handle Big East Champion Cincinnati, though. He believes the number could have been 13.

?Cincinnati is good, but this is a class thing,? Korner said. ?They?re not a Florida.?

Which way do you expect it to move: Gardner said bettors were showing confidence in the Bearcats early. The line dropped to -10 at some books. ?[Ten] is generating two-sided action and looks like it will remain until game time,? Gardner said.

 

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BCS Numbers

BCS Numbers

BCS Numbers


To give you an idea of how good Alabama looked in trouncing Florida 32-13 Saturday to win the SEC title, let?s revisit a conversation we had with Las Vegas Sports Consultants? oddsmaker Mike Seba just three weeks ago. At that time, Seba gave us a tentative line of Texas to be favored by 2 ? over the Crimson Tide in a potential BCS Championship Game matchup.

But on Sunday as the BCS bids were announced, LVSC had Alabama as the four-point ?chalk? against the Longhorns for their Jan. 7th showdown in Pasadena for the national title. By Monday afternoon, most books had the Tide at 4 ? or five, while the total was still at 45 (the same as LVSC?s send-out number).

Nick Saban?s team dominated the Gators and he completely out-coached Urban Meyer in avenging last season?s painful 31-20 defeat to UF at the Ga. Dome. The Tide amassed 490 total yards compared to 335 yards of offense for Florida.

?Bama enjoyed a 26-13 advantage in first downs. The game was sealed on a 17-play, 88-yard drive that ate up most of the third quarter and left the Tide with a commanding lead. Mark Ingram ran for three touchdowns and Greg McElroy outplayed Tim Tebow.


Texas had a much tougher time punching its ticket to Pasadena, the same venue where it beat USC for all the marbles in 2005. The Longhorns were literally one second away from losing to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. It was nearly circa ?96 except with the roles reversed.

Remember, as we pointed out last week, Texas stunned Nebraska as a 20 ?-point underdog in ?96 to deny the Cornhuskers a shot at repeating as national champs. This time around, Nebraska nearly pulled the upset but Hunter Lawrence buried a 46-yard field goal on the game?s (second) final play to give Texas the win.

The other BCS pairings went like this ? Florida vs. Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, Ga. Tech vs. Iowa in the Orange Bowl and Boise St. vs. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. We already knew that Ohio State and Oregon would be meeting in the Rose Bowl.

LVSC opened Florida as a 10 ?-point favorite with a total of 62 against the Bearcats. These schools will collide at the Superdome in New Orleans on New Year?s Day at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Fox. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Gators favored by 10. Per LVSC, the Bearcats were plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300 for Cincy to win outright).

Gamblers have to be concerned about the psyche of Florida and whether or not this team will mentally check out over the next few weeks. At least four UF juniors are expected to turn pro, and I could see this game resembling Alabama?s loss to Utah last year.

On the flip side, you have the Brian-Kelly-to-Notre-Dame factor that should become more clear in the coming days. On Monday, Kelly told his team he would be meeting with Notre Dame officials sometime this week.

LVSC opened Oregon as a two-point favorite over Ohio St. with a total of 50, but most books had the Ducks at 3 ? by late Monday afternoon. These schools will square off in Pasadena at 5:00 p.m. Eastern on New Year?s Day, with ABC providing television coverage.

LVSC had TCU as a seven-point ?chalk? against Boise St. on the send-out. However, most spots had the Horned Frogs at eight by late Monday afternoon. LVSC opened the total at 54.

Ga. Tech is going to the Orange Bowl for the first time since 1967. The Yellow Jackets garnered the invite by winning the ACC Championship Game by a 39-34 count over Clemson. They took the cash as one-point favorites and also hooked up backers of future wagers (per this space?s suggestion) to win the conference with a plus-750 return (risk $100 to win $750).

Paul Johnson?s team will square off against Iowa from out of the Big Ten. LVSC opened the Yellow Jackets as 3 ?-point favorites with a total of 51. The Hawkeyes are plus-140 on the money line.

LVSC sent TCU out as a four-point ?chalk,? but the number was at seven Monday night. The total is 54 at most books. These schools met in the Poinsettia Bowl last year with the Horned Frogs capturing a 17-16 victory as 3 ?-point favorites. The Broncos missed a fourth-quarter field goal that would?ve given them the lead.

 

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'Bama & Texas, Like Old Times

'Bama & Texas, Like Old Times

By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
They meet again!
We're talking about Alabama and Texas, who will renew acquaintances in this season's BCS title game to be played in Pasadena. And all we can say is that if this upcoming clash is anything close to the memorable bowl battles waged between these two iconic gridiron programs since we began publishing TGS 52 years ago, we'll be in for quite a treat January 7.

For those of you who haven't been around for over a half century, however, a little Longhorns-Crimson Tide refresher course is in order. And the historical significance of one of their previous encounters must be acknowledged. Indeed, it can be said that the modern relationship between all major sports and television began when these two squared off in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Night, 1965.

Hard as it is for modern-day football fans to imagine, bowl games used to almost always be daytime events into the mid '60s. New Year's Day was reserved for the Cotton, Sugar, Orange, and Rose Bowls, all taking place under the sun. Until January 1, 1965, that is, when NBC picked up the Orange Bowl from ABC and decided that it was a natural for a nighttime kickoff. Stacked on top of the Cotton, Sugar, and Rose, it created a full day and night of constant, nationally-televised football action on New Year's Day. More than a few thought it was overkill. Jack Gould, TV critic for The New York Times, summed up a popular perception of the day. "A (TV) set owner last night had visions of football...prospering to the point of extinction," said Gould the day after the '65 Orange Bowl. "The human mind does have a saturation point. NBC, in conspiratorial liason with the Orange Bowl and city fathers of Miami, made the longest New Year's in the history of football."





But Jack Gould and other critics missed the bigger picture, because that 1965 Orange Bowl would forever change the relationship between not only television and football, but other sports as well. That first prime time Orange Bowl telecast on NBC attracted a staggering 40 million viewers, and the sports world took notice. Before long, the NFL would be playing Monday Night Football, the World Series would move its games to nighttime, and sports would become featured fare on the major networks. And it can be said that the '65 Longhorns-Crimson Tide Orange Bowl was the spark that lit the fuse.

Of course, the action on the field that night in Miami only added to the allure of nighttime TV football. Bear Bryant's Alabama, with white-shoed and sore-kneed QB Joe Namath playing his final college game, was looking to secure a national title in both major polls (it had already won the AP version, decided before the bowls). Darrell Royal's Texas, however, would provide stiff opposition; the Horns had lost just once that season, a 14-13 mid-October setback to an Arkansas side that would go on to its own unbeaten season. Namath's sore knees kept him on the bench at the outset, but when the Horns raced to an early 14-0 lead courtesy of a 79-yard TD run by RB Ernie Koy and a 69-yard pass from Jim Hudson to George Sauer, Jr. (both ironically to become Namath's teammates with the Jets), Namath relieved starter Steve Sloan and began to stir the Tide back to life. By the fourth quarter, Bama had chipped away and cut the lead to 21-17, and LB Jim Fuller's interception late in the game set up Namath at the Texas 34 for a final, dramatic, game-deciding drive. "Pre-Broadway" Joe steered the Tide on a pulsating march to the Texas 1-yard line, where on a fourth down sneak he was stopped just short by LB Tommy Nobis, although Namath still believes he crossed the goal. "I'll go to my grave knowing I scored a TD on that play," Joe would later say, but in the days long before video reviews, the controversy ended in favor of Texas, which held on for a 21-17 win.

A couple of subsequent battles between the schools in the Cotton Bowl were almost as exciting. The Bear's 1972 Bama team was unbeaten and ranked 2nd in the polls when it opted to face Texas and perhaps gain revenge on Royal (who had never lost to a Bryant-coached team) instead of facing more challenging assignments in the Sugar (vs. Oklahoma) or Orange (vs. Nebraska). But the Tide subsequently lost its regular-season finale in the infamous "blocked punt" game vs. Auburn and was frustrated again by Royal in Dallas, as Texas rallied from a 13-3 deficit to pull out a 17-13 win on the strength of QB Alan Lowry's late 34-yard TD run. Royal had retired by the time Bryant took one last shot at Texas (coached by Fred Akers) in the '82 Cotton Bowl, but another late Longhorn rally, this one led by QB Robert Brewer, again foiled the Tide by a 14-12 count. The schools have managed to avoid one another in the 28 years since, but Bama will indeed finally get its chance in Pasadena to avenge that trio of bitter defeats vs. Texas.

And if the upcoming Horns-Tide BCS championship battle is anything like the last three bowl meetings, hang on for the ride!

 

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Five teams who won't show for bowls

Five teams who won't show for bowls

Five teams who won't show for bowls


A year ago, Alabama was dismembered by Florida, 31-20, in the Southeastern Conference title game. It was a crushing blow to the Crimson Tide and despite having a month to recover, Alabama lost to Utah, 31-17, in the Sugar Bowl.

What happened? In essence, Florida beat Alabama twice ? once in the SEC title game and again in the Sugar Bowl.

It was another example of a team playing in a bowl game that didn?t want to be there.

There are a few ways to pick bowl game winners. One involves digging through a pile of statistics and conducting research until sunrise. Often, it?s a big waste of time.

An easier way is to find the teams that want to be there. Better yet, find the teams that would rather be spending the holidays at home, like Alabama last season.

Here is a look at five games involving teams that wish their season were over:

Pittsburgh Panthers

The Panthers have lost two consecutively, with last Saturday?s setback to Cincinnati being the crusher. Had the Panthers beat the Bearcats, they would have been playing in a Bowl Championship Series game. Instead, they are going to the Meineke Car Care Bowl. It?s played in Charlotte, and that?s bad news because the opponent is North Carolina, whose fans will fill the joint. Pittsburgh is already a loser in North Carolina. It played North Carolina State in Raleigh and lost, 38-31, and there?s nothing to suggest that Pittsburgh?s next trip to the state will be any better.

Bowling Green Falcons

The Falcons were 1-4 at one point and rattled off victories in six of their last seven to qualify for a bowl game. The reward was a trip to Boise to play Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl in the dead of winter. That?s a real kick in the teeth. Even hometown Boise State, which used to be a regular in this game, abandoned the Humanitarian after discovering postseason destinations like San Diego and Glendale, Ariz. The bottom line is that more than any other game, the Humanitarian comes down to which teams wants to be there most and Idaho, which hasn?t played in the postseason since 1999, would be grateful to travel to Barrow, Alaska, by dogsled to play in a bowl.

Oklahoma Sooners

Big things were expected of the Sooners, who were No. 3 in the Associated Press preseason poll. Then came a tsunami of injuries that included the loss of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford. It has been one disaster after another for Oklahoma, which muddled its way to a 7-5 regular season after participating in the BCS title game last season. Sunday?s announcement that the Sooners were selected to play in the Sun Bowl was greeted like a trip to the dentist for a root canal. The opponent in El Paso is up and coming Stanford. This game is often decided by which team is able to keep its players out of the 24-7 scene in Ciudad Ju?rez. Our money is on the disciplined and motivated Cardinal.

Ohio State Buckeyes

OK, the Buckeyes have to be excited about playing in Pasadena on New Year?s Day. That?s not the problem. It?s this age-old Big Ten-Pacific 10 deal, where the big, slow team from the Midwest that likes to run the ball suddenly finds itself disoriented in Hollywood. It?s not clear what turns these big meanies into softies. Perhaps it?s the teacups ride at Disneyland. Maybe they devour too much prime rib at Lawry?s. Whatever, come Jan. 1, the Big Ten team is ready for slaughter. Last year, Penn State trailed USC, 31-7, at halftime. The year before, Illinois was in a 21-3 hole against USC at the break. Ohio State can?t afford to get behind against Oregon, but given the way the Ducks move the ball, the Buckeyes? heads will be spinning like a teacup.

Michigan State Spartans

The fun started after the Spartans were drilled at home by Penn State, 42-14, to finish the regular season 6-6. Later that night, several players reportedly got into a fight at a dormitory, and two players have already been kicked off the team. Another eight were suspended and won?t make the trip to the Alamo Bowl, where the Spartans play Texas Tech. There could be more repercussions and Alamo officials thought long and hard about inviting the Spartans to San Antonio. But with most of the bad guys left behind in East Lansing, there should be little threat to the community, so the Spartans got the bid. Given that Michigan State has a leaky pass defense and Mike Leach has a desire to pour it on when he can, this doesn?t look like a good spot for the Spartans.

 

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BCS bowl matchups and spreads

BCS bowl matchups and spreads

BCS bowl matchups and spreads

The BCS bowl selections were announced on Sunday night and there weren?t any surprises.

The No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the season?s final BCS standings, Alabama (13-0, 8-5 ATS) and Texas (13-0, 5-7-1 ATS), will meet in the National Championship on Jan. 7 in Pasadena.

?Texas will have as good of offensive players as anybody we?ve faced all year and I know they have a great defense,? said Alabama head coach Nick Saban, who believes Colt McCoy is the best all-around player his team will face this season. ?This is going to be a challenging game for us; we know Texas is a great program and great team.?

The Crimson Tide opened as 4-point favorites over the Longhorns and that number quickly fluctuated to as high as 5 at some shops. The total for the title game opened at 45.

The Orange Bowl, held in Miami on Jan. 5, will feature the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 7-4 ATS) and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2, 8-4 ATS).

Paul Johnson runs a triple-option offense at Georgia Tech that rolls up 307.2 ypg. That high-powered offense will have to contend with Iowa?s No. 10-ranked scoring defense that surrenders less than 16 points per game.

Hawkeyes? junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi is expected to return under center after missing the last two games of the season.

History doesn?t bode will for the Jackets with the ACC going 1-8 in BCS bowl games this decade.

Oddsmakers installed Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite.

Two unbeaten teams from the mid-major conferences will square off in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4 in Glendale, Ariz., when TCU (12-0, 8-4 ATS) meets Boise State (13-0, 8-5 ATS).

?Boise is a great team, but we?re here to prove a point,? said TCU head coach Gary Patterson. ?I voted for us No. 2 in the polls today and feel like we have a great football team. We are out to prove that we could be the No. 1 team in the nation.?

These two teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl last season with the Horned Frogs winning 17-16.

TCU is an 8-point favorite in the Fiesta Bowl.

Big East champion Cincinnati (12-0, 6-6 ATS) will put its unblemished record to the test against the defending national champion Florida Gators (12-1, 6-6 ATS) in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

The distraction of Brian Kelly jetting off to South Bend could affect the Bearcats focus over the next month.

Florida must avoid the letdown factor after losing in the SEC championship. Alabama failed to show much motivation in its bowl appearance after losing in the SEC title game last season and was badly beaten by Utah.

The largest spread of the BCS bowls is the 10.5-point number laid by the Gators in the Sugar Bowl.

The BCS bowls commence with the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Road to the Roses will be a race between conference champions Ohio State (10-2, 9-3 ATS) and Oregon (10-2, 7-5 ATS).

Oregon opened as a 3-point favorite.