BCS Title Game

[Cie]

I middled off of my action tonight's game, but figured I would pass along some decent info I received this morning by email from an Aburn fan who read it on a capping forum. None of the following info came from me.

In '02, when OSU upended Miami in the title game, Miami had played in only 2 close games all season. OSU played in 6 close games that season.

Last season, Fla played in 5 close games compared to OSU's 2 close games.

There is a lot to be said about the battle-tested teams having a possible edge. This season, LSU has played in 7 close games, compared to OSU's 2.

Why did LSU play in so many close games? At least partially because LSU played against better competition. OSU faced no top 25 offenses this season, while LSU faced 3 top 25 offenses.

LSU faced 2 top 10 and 3 top 25 defenses, while OSU faced no top 10 offenses and only 1 top 25 defense.

Despite LSU's clear edge in competition, OSU offense didn't even rank in the top 50 this season.

 

[Cie]

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To me, the key is which team can run the football, and I am leaning to OSU in that regard. I hope I am wrong, but it appears Wells is a load, and I have not been impressed with LSU run-stopping ability up the gut. The OL edge also goes to OSU imo. LSU RT Stewart has only played offense for 2 years, after growing up as a DT. He has the athletic ability, but POOR balance which is likely a problem with technique.

LSU is a heavily penalized team this year, so I wonder how LSU will hold up after a layoff. I would expect plenty of flags to be thrown tonight

Another problem is Flynn's poor decision-making and accuracy. Even when he threw to the open man, he often threw wildly. I was one who believed prior to this season that Flynn was better than it turned out he is. He missed open receivers all season long, and I see absolutely no reason for that to stop now.

In LSU's favor, aside from the "home field" edge is the lack of mobility of Boeckman, as well as his lack of big-game experience against top level competition. The game against a banged-up Mich squad is not big time competition imo. Flynn, on the other hand has won his only bowl appearance, and defeated Florida (against a focused Tebow), Auburn and VT.


Its gonna be a good one. GLTA:weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!!!

Cie, you going to be at the game tonight??

One thing just to counter your info......not that this should be considered a "lean" in any way.....is the underdog in BCS title games is 7-2 SU, ATS.

My take on that is for an entire month the underdog had it hammered into them that they dont belong, the game wont be close and that the championship is already given to the "favorite."

Last year was a perfect example of that. OSU was the 'oh my god, best team evah' why should poor florida even show up. Same thing with USC the year before. And FSU in 98 and 2000. And, Miami in 2002.

Yet those schools were playing fellow elites like Tennensee, Oklahoma, OSU, Texas and Florida, programs which had every bit as much talent as the alleged lock-to-win favorites. Its played out like a atheltic experiment. Take two teams loaded with talent. Tell one they're awesome, they're champs, and the game is formality. Tell the other you dont belong, nobody thinks you can play or respects your right to be here. Thus far, the team with the chip on its shoulder has come out on top.

In tonight's game, OSU is being motivated by the the fact people are saying they dont belong and people expect them to get trounced. Its unique to see a program come back to this point in consecutive years, but in diametrically opposites roles.

Not sure if I made any sense, and I am not making a pick here....as far as spreads go, this is the second smallest number--at 4--that we have seen in the history of these bcs title games, so it will be tougher for the underdog to continue that trend....most of the time the spread has been a TD or more.

And, the only Favs that covered were FSU over Va Tech after the 1999 season as -6 and Miami over Nebraska after the 2001 season as -8.....now some USC folks might object (go figure) to these numbers and say, hey didnt we cover against Oklahoma after the 2004 season. Yes, thats right, but I remember distinctly my local giving out OU -1 that night and a couple of us laughing to the bank with that. I have noticed that depending on what archives you use, that game is either listed as OU -1, a pick or USC -1......I threw what I had that night for the purposed of the above record.

 

[Cie]

I'm going to the game, TP:00hour Several friends that have no children made it downtown at 5am to start the cochon de lait. I am leaving shortly to join the action.

As for the underdog trend in these games, I am beginning to think that is being overplayed this year. Still, if I did not attend LSU, and had I not been a lifelong fan and season ticket holder, then I would definitely have played OSU +6 weeks ago. Imo, there are too many advantages for OSU to lay substantial $$ on LSU.

GL whichever side you play, TP:toast:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Sweet!!!!!

Have a few drinks for me stuck here up north and working all day!!! That tailgate sounds like a blast. Throw a little extra fun in on behalf of your MJ friends stuck up north here.

Funny you think the underdog angle might be played out. Just rapped about the game with a few minutes with an OSU fan about that. While he said that OSU is approaching this game better this year and not assuming they'll win like last year, he agreed with what you said about the whole underdog scenario. There is a lot of negativity regarding LSU's involvement in this game as well. Lots of "pundit class" talk over the weekend that whomever wins tonight wont be a real champ in light of what UGA and USC did in the bowl games, even West Virginia. Thus, LSU can use that whole chip on their shoulder, nobody respects us mentality as well.

Either way it shapes up to a tight, tense and very physical and fast game. Should be fun to watch, even better to be there.

Geaux Tigers!!! :weed:

 

[Wolver98]

Enjoy the game Cie. I have to leave for work at half time so drink a couple for me!

 

[Taximike]

Thats bad mojo to be rooting for lsu to win, while using the name of the player who sealed the last Ohio State championship.:nono:

That is Cie Grant wrapping up Ken Dorsey on 4th and goal in double ot forcing an errant throw, which ended the game.

 

[Kramer]

Congrats Cie :toast: :drinky: :Yep:

 

[Whitt's End]

i've been waiting for someone to bring up that Cie Grant OSU thing...

what of it, Cie?

 

[Cie]

i've been waiting for someone to bring up that Cie Grant OSU thing...

what of it, Cie?

I use cie grant as my "handle". Not sure what I can say of it except I liked cie grant the player when he was with the buckeyes and saints.

I hope that you are able to enjoy your team win a national title. It feels great, especially when you are a lifelong fan, season ticket holder and alumnus.

Its been a great day for me:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[Cie]

Congrats Cie :toast: :drinky: :Yep:

Thx dude :toast: I appreciate you taking the time to congratulate me for this wn. :toast:

 

[Cie]

Thats bad mojo to be rooting for lsu to win, while using the name of the player who sealed the last Ohio State championship.:nono:

That is Cie Grant wrapping up Ken Dorsey on 4th and goal in double ot forcing an errant throw, which ended the game.

Whatever works for you, sir.

I am only here to provide quality college football plays and quality fades in all other sports.

 

[ageecee]

Whatever works for you, sir.

I am only here to provide quality college football plays and quality fades in all other sports.

Congrats Cie. Next year will be much tougher as everyone will be gunning for us and the road trip to Florida and Auburn.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Congrats Cie!!!! Already passed on congrats to some of my other favorite LSU guys last night in the open thread, but I clearly could not possibly leave you out!! :toast:

:00hour :00hour :00hour

Awesome season with your picks.......had a blast watching your boys all season long as part of the greater week in, week out drama that was the SEC this season......and I particularly enjoyed getting to chat with you within your threads and other open threads......learned a lot from your insight this year as you are both an astute observer and capper of the game.....looking forward to further chats next season and in the next eight months in between during the seasons of all these "minor" sports!!! :weed:

Congrats again last night!!! Geaux Tigers!!

 

[Cie]

Congrats Cie!!!! Already passed on congrats to some of my other favorite LSU guys last night in the open thread, but I clearly could not possibly leave you out!! :toast:

:00hour :00hour :00hour

Awesome season with your picks.......had a blast watching your boys all season long as part of the greater week in, week out drama that was the SEC this season......and I particularly enjoyed getting to chat with you within your threads and other open threads......learned a lot from your insight this year as you are both an astute observer and capper of the game.....looking forward to further chats next season and in the next eight months in between during the seasons of all these "minor" sports!!! :weed:

Congrats again last night!!! Geaux Tigers!!

Thanks TP:weed: