Been Digging

[lostinamerica]

Been digging, and thought I'd post some stuff that might be of interest.


(1)Historical Wild Card Trends (courtesy of The Gold Sheet):

Underdogs(ATS):
1978-1992 = 23-10-1
1993-1999 = 9-17-1
2000 = 3-1-0 (all 3 winners were home teams)

Underdogs(+3' or less)(ATS):
1978-2000: 15-9-2

Home Teams(ATS):
1996-2000: 15-4-1

(Note: Wild Card rounds in each conference expanded from 1 game to 2 games in 1990.)


(2) 2001 record vs. playoff teams, and overall turnover ratios (I was as careful as possible in calculating these numbers, and any other numbers I post at this site):

S F = 3-3 (+15)
G B = 4-1 (+12)

T B = 3-5 (+17)
Phl = 1-3 (+9)

Chi = 3-3 (+13)
StL = 6-1 (-10)

Bal = 2-3 (-8)
Mia = 2-5 (-10)

NYJ = 4-3 (+18)
Oak = 1-2 (-1)

N E = 2-3 (+7)
Pit = 3-1 (+6)


(3) In the Free Picks Section, Investment Executive posted a great link to
http://theredzone.org/
It's an efficient site to follow stories and angles on every team on a daily basis, and it went right to the top of my handicapping bookmarks. Beautiful!



As time permits, I'm sure I'll add some other stuff on some individual games.

I'll start (and finish) with one angle that crossed my mind regarding NFC/AFC/Super Bowl futures. A bye week is thought to be a significant advantage beyond one less game to play. Philadelphia and Tampa may have received the equivalent of a bye with their scrimmage last week, and New England is getting two byes in three weeks. Who knows.

--------------------------------------------
Don't believe everything you think.
--------------------------------------------

 

[lostinamerica]

GREEN BAY DEFENSE:

This is not the first year that followers of this team have complained that it plays up to or down to the level of its competition. That tendency would appear to be supported by a 4-1 record this year against playoff teams, and also by missing the playoffs in 2000 despite a 5-0 record at home against teams that finished with a winning record. And that assessment is not limited to the play of Favre or the offense. If that perception is accurate, there is an upside as well as a downside to it. So, which will it be on Sunday?

In the playoff atmosphere of Lambeau Field, I fully expect the Packers defense to show their A game. This is the 5th time in 7 years that GB and SF will meet in the post-season (plus four times in the regular season). The Packers will show their swagger and confidence, but is it realistic to expect them to back it up by making plays?

I agreed with yyz and Valuist in a prior thread that they "see this flying over the total." If wagers involving the Packers were not "off the board" for me, it would be my BEST BET for the weekend, hands down. That doesn't mean I don't expect to see the Packers with the better defense on the field.

The Packers success has actually been noteworthy because of the absence of some key contributors. On defense, the fallen include S Antuan Edwards (IR on 10/3), S LeRoy Butler (11/19), LB Chris Gizzi (12/19), and DE John Thierry (1/2). Playmaking LB Nate Wayne (back) came back ineffectively last week ("you just have to be smart about it...guys were telling me to sit down...I felt great. Only thing I didn't have was burst. I felt a little sluggish"), and NT Gilbert Brown (toe) was held out once more for precautionary reasons. Additional injuries in the NYG game were S Bhawoh Jue (mild concussion) (expected to be OK) while the status of "fast healing" LB Na'il Diggs (ankle/calf) is optimistic but less certain. After the Giants game, the concerned but confident attitude of Coach Sherman was to the effect that "we are banged up, but nobody cares, these are the playoffs now, and we have to get it right."

S Darren Sharper is likely to be just one key to the Packers success (or lack thereof) on defense. He's a proven playmaker that has looked tentative and a little lost since assuming the defensive quarterbacking role for Butler. I expect coordinator Donatell will have confidence in his defense in this game and will not sit back and let SF dictate to him. This week the Pack will be flying to the ball, taking better angles, not be whiffing tackles, and trusting their secondary to hold their own. It won't be the first time.

(SF is not without its own injury concerns on defense. Mainly, DE Chike Okeafor( Questionable, broken leg); DE John Engelberger (Questionable, high ankle sprain); and CB Ahmed Plummer (strained hip, but expected to be available) for what was apparently an already depleted or ailing secondary.)

The Packers have relied on depth on the DL, mixing their schemes and above average coverage to generate an often timely but never consistent pass rush. I don't think the Packers will soon be mistaken for the best tackling team in the league (especially on some of those "off" days). But in forcing turnovers or making third down stops at opportune times, I don't think their 12-4 record is misleading at all.

That looks like a fair assessment to me. Maybe you see it as uninspiring. I have watched every play from scrimmage by the Packers this year (many of them more than once on the old VCR), and I am not lacking in expectations or confidence in their ability on Sunday. For the long term (at St. Louis, or to make an extended playoff run, a defense that has given up 170 rushing yards per game during the last four weeks is clearly an Achilles' heel, but those games are not what I am handicapping here.

I said about what I wanted on the GB defense. Before Sunday I'll likely add some miscellaneous stuff about both teams.

--------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI

Count me in for the Under in this game, but it looks like I'll be in the minority in taking my chances with the defending champs and as many points as I can get.

I know I don't care much for either team, but I don't know how that is relevant. It seems almost inconceivable to me that Baltimore can once again take the long road to a championship. But they are in, and coming out of the box, I expect their confidence and swagger to show, and I'm not too keen on picking this Miami bunch to be the ones to knock it out of them.

This league is a tough place for defending champs. Just making the playoffs was all St. Louis could accomplish in the role, and more than Denver could do after their last title. And then their are the NY Giants and Atlanta to consider. I had this team pegged for an ugly 11-5, and instead they were an ugly 10-6. There is likely to be a hungry and ambitious team out there that will set the Ravens down. Miami?

The Ravens have an elite defense. Self-evident. Some help from the offense in terms of field position and time of possession will probably get them roaring. Grbac is not good, and he may suck enough to be the difference, but they are first going to ask him not to lose the game for them.

I like Fiedler's mobility, but better arm strength would help even more in exploiting any creases the Ravens give him. On the move he needs to throw the ball rather than take off, and whether in the pocket or on the move, his strikes will have to be awfully brave to get it done here, whether he's 10 points up or 10 points down.

Miami had better jump on top early, and then I still have visions of trouble.

I don't like Wannstedt at all as a big game coach, and I sure don't like the ability of good teams to squash Miami like a bug. We'll see if Baltimore as a dog is all bark and no bite.

 

[lostinamerica]

NY JETS vs. OAKLAND

Try as I might, I can't look at this game without thinking the most important angle is the rematch of last week's game.

Last week, the Jets were handled in a lot of ways, and they come out of it with their first win while visiting the Raiders since what, 1962? And now they head back to try and do it all over again? Could a now suspect Raiders team have been dealt a more favorable hand?

Are the Jets that good AND the Raiders that bad?

I like the Raiders.

-------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA

My digging on this game has taken me from confident to waffling to changing to waffling.

Philadelphia has been very good to me this year. I've had a good handle on knowing when to stick with them and when to stay away. Philadelphia will be my long shot play from the NFC on a Super Bowl futures. On the other hand, I have not had a good handle on Tampa for at least two years, and it feels like it's been even longer than that.

These teams have had three weeks of preparation for each other (before the first game was postponed, then last week, and now this week).

The Eagles are a young team on the rise. Tampa is a veteran team that has never reached its potential, and now rumors are swirling about the status of Coach Dungy.

Tampa wants to manage the game and pound away, because I can't see them hurting the Eagles with their underneath passing game. Can Tampa get all that accomplished in cold weather? Will the Eagles nevertheless break their hearts at the end? Should I take the points?

I'll probably close my eyes and take the Eagles, with the Under.