BEST BETS FOR 10/29

[Hard Times]

AQUEDUCT
R#2= #2 BUDDA POWER= PLACE PD 2.80
R#3= #5 STORM PLAY= WON PD 3.00
R#5= #5 AFLEET AYA= PLACE PD 3.20

CHURCHHILL
R#2= #4 HOUSE OF USHER= WON PD 3.40
R#5= #7 LAST TRAM= WON PD 3.40
R#7= #10 TSUNAMI BERTIE = RAN 5TH

HOLLYWOOD
R#4= #5 I WANT REVENGE= WON PD 3.00

BEULAH
R#1= #4 MARY COUGHLAN= PLACE PD 2.10
R#2= #1 HI LILY HI LO= RAN 4TH

SUFFOLK
R#5= #2 SHE'S ON FIRE= WON PD 2.40

 

[Chip Hilton]

Chalk

Chalk

That's some serious chalk you play. Do you find it profitable betting such heavy favorites? Some were 0.20 favs. Unless you hit four out of five, you lose money.

 

[Hard Times]

LETS CLEAR THE AIR

LETS CLEAR THE AIR

That's some serious chalk you play. Do you find it profitable betting such heavy favorites? Some were 0.20 favs. Unless you hit four out of five, you lose money.

I'VE BEEN TOLD THAT THE BANK WANT PAY 20 % ON YOUR MONEY IN 2 MINUTES.
I DON'T BET HORSES THAT PAY ANY LESS THAN 3/5 OR SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THOSE ODDS.
FIRST OF ALL,WHEN I POST , I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE HORSE IS GOING TO GO OFF AT.
2ND OF ALL IN PREVIOUS POST I EXPLAIN THAT I BET WIN ONLY UNLESS I GET 3/2 OR 7/5 OR BETTER ODDS, THEN I MAY PLAY THE PLACE FOR 2 TIMES THE AMMOUNT OF THE WIN BET. IF I GET THE RIGHT ODDS I BET W/P/S.
JUST SO HAPPENS THAT TODAY THE PICKS THAT I POSTED WHERE HEAVY CHALK.
IF YOU LOOK BACK AT OTHER POST THAT I'VE MADE SOME HORSES HAVE PAID 8/10/12.00 OR MORE.
YOU CRACK WISE ABOUT THE 0NE THAT PAID 2.40 AND I TELL YOU THAT YOU ARE A FOOL TO BET A HORSE THAT PAYS 2.40,BUT YOU MIGHT SINGLE THE HORSE, YOU KNOW PK 3'S AND PK 4'S AND USE ON TOP OF YOUR EX AND TRI'S.
I POSTED THESE HORSES BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN AND NOT KNOWING WHAT THE PRICE WILL BE AT POST TIME.

 

[Hard Times]

EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE

TODAY AT HOLLYWOOD RACE #4 I GIVE YOU THE CHALK = #5 I WANT REVENGE= NOW THAT YOU ARE HERE YOU SURELY LOOKED AT WHAT AXLE PUTS UP ON THE BOARD,SO RACE #5 HE LIKES THE CHALK #4 FERNELEY THEN IN RACE #6 ONLY A 7 HORSE FIELD SO I PLAY STARTING IN RACE #4 A PICK 3 = I SINGLE THE #5 THEN I SINGLE AXLES #4 FERNELEY WITH ALL IN RACE #6= A 1.00 TICKET COST 7.00 AND IT PAID 203.00= I PLAY LOTS OF ROLLING PICK 3'S WHEN TRACKS OFFER THESE BETS AND YOU HAVE TO HAVE SINGLE PLAYS IN A LOT OF YOUR PLAYS OR IT JUST COST TO DAMN MUCH TO PLAY. I BET EXOTICS AND DON'T HAVE THE TIME OR INCLINATION TO POST ALL POSSIBILITIES.
HANDICAPPING HORSES IS SOME SKILL AND A SHIT LOAD OF LUCK!!!!!
I BET REAL HIGH AND I'M NOT TRYING TO BE A SMART ASS. I PLAY POKER REAL HIGH AND I WOULD NEVER PLAY IF THEY CUT THE POT 25 % = WOULD YOU. HORSES IS FAST ACTION AND I LOVE FAST ACTION.

 

[captmorgan34]

hey nice hit today. Love the horses too but been laying off them a little. like you said fast action means a bad streak is really bad for the wallet.

Post some picks sometimes but love to see you guys pick. Nice hit and I will be following.

:0corn :toast:

 

[The_Culprit]

Picking winner means sometimes picking chalk.

A winners a winner. Better than betting the 10 to 1 loser.

Just Win Baby!

 

[Axle]

That's some serious chalk you play. Do you find it profitable betting such heavy favorites? Some were 0.20 favs. Unless you hit four out of five, you lose money.

HT excellent response..............

Ever notice that guys who try to shoot arrows at us guys like us never post their selections.....usually some sort of response like "I don't want to hurt my odds...." Ya right....:142smilie

I'm glad you are here HT....Dan Murphy hasn't been aound for a while, glad to see someone else posting.....it takes a little courage to post picks because as all of us players know, they are not all winners.............and being handed a gig every now and then also goes with the program, regardless of how unjust it is....:soapbox:

 

[Chip Hilton]

HT thanks ; Axle - ???

HT thanks ; Axle - ???

Hard Times -- thank you for your explanation. It was merely an inquiry as to whether betting strong favorites without seeing any exotics posted was the way to go. I realize time constaints and other issues prevent people from listing all their plays and was just wondering what your angle might be with favs.

Axle -- I wasn't shooting arrows, just asking his opinion. I guess you must have taken it the wrong way. I see you play the same way with favs and after following just your W or W/P or W/P/S picks, it clearly appears you won't make money with just that angle. However, using your picks in pick 3's, 4's etc...or with other exotics does make more sense.

Culprit - a winner is better than a 10:1 loser is so obvious it doesn't even warrant a response.

I wanted to ask because even though HT hit half the races (5 of 10) at a $10 investment to win on each, you would win only $26 on the five wins but lose $50 on the losses for a net of minus $24. I was just looking for his long term advice on the best way to bet as I enjoyed both Breeders Cup days and it kind of brought me back into the horse races again.

I also looked at Axle too. On day one after the Cup, you hit one of five races with two others scratched. At $10 to Win, that would produce a win of $8, but losses of $40, for a net of minus $32. Yesterday, you hit four of ten races with twelve listed but two scratched. Again, at $10 to win, you would collect $36.5 on the winners but lose $60 on the losers for a net of minus $23.5.

These results of hitting a high percentage of winners but still losing money caused me to inquire. This was not meant to criticize anyone at all but merely ask whether heavy favorites without exotics can produce profits in the long run. I realize posting the plays is putting yourself out there and I enjoy ALL who do that. I agree, if anyone is not posting because they will hurt their odds are being foolish. I hope to continue to see both your picks as well as others and would appreciate any pointers you may have along the way. Good luck and prosper. :toast:

 

[Hard Times]

NO PROBLEM

NO PROBLEM

I have no problem with your Q and A'S and I can see where I would wonder why anyone would bet a horse that would pay 2.40,and I assure you that I don't.But you ,sir, pick the 2.40 horse for a comparison. So why not go to my post of 10/24 at oak tree picks and comment on the third race where I show you 4 horse box and if you looked at my picks on a daily bases,you would see that I very seldom post exotics especially a 4 horse box,
but I do every now and then ,when I get or pay for horse picks I share them.
I see that a poster named lucky posted that he was betting 700 on ZENYATTA on friday 10/24 it paid 3.00 and he won 350. I dont't like to say how much I bet,it's not in good taste.Go look at my post on that race and if you bet 700 on exotics on what I posted you would of made a bundle.
GOOD LUCK AND FEEL FREE TO ASK ANY QUESTION .

 

[Chip Hilton]

Thanks

Thanks

Thanks for the response. I had to leave early on that first day of the Breeders Cup on Friday so I didn't have your post by the time I left. Wish I did for that third race -- nice score!!! I didn't mean to highlight the $2.4 if it came across that way and if you are betting in advance as most of us have to, you won't know how low a horse can be bet down to.

What a great two days of racing. Did you catch that horse, Conduit in the $3M Turf. It looked like he could still go strong for 2 miles. Those two racing days nearly had me get in my car and make the 3 1/4 hour drive to Belmont on Sunday for their last day. I go to Saratoga once a year for a weekend and love it.

Thanks for being open to questions. I hope to be able to pick your brain on these matters as time goes on. Any tips off the top of your head would be appreciated. Thanks again.