Best home bets in
We?re looking for teams that play significantly better at home than on the road, regardless of their overall records.
For example, the 2009 Yankees were 57-24 at home and 46-35 on the road. That comes out to a +11 H/AWD ? slightly above average (The average H/AWD in 2009 was 7.9). The Yankees were a tremendous team, but the difference between the Yankees at home and the Yankees on the road was negligible ? they were good wherever they played.
The lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, were pure H/AWD gold in 2009. Although they went 22-58 on the road, Pittsburgh went 40-41 at home for an impressive +18 H/AWD. The Pirates were vastly better at home than they were on the road.
A team can offer good value at home when relatively poor road play drags down its overall record enough for its home performance to be overshadowed.
Here are the teams with the highest home/away win differentials over the last five seasons. The number in parentheses is their H/AWD since 2005.
Tampa Bay Rays (+79)
The Rays had the highest H/AWD in baseball last year (+20), due in large part to the starters at the front of their young rotation.
Upcoming Opening Day starter James Shields pitched much better at home than on the road over the last two seasons. Since the beginning of 2008, Shields is 15-8 with a 3.17 ERA at home and 10-12 with a 4.72 ERA away from Tropicana Field.
Matt Garza showed similar Jekyll-Hyde tendencies in 2009, going 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA at home, but just 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA on the road. Garza lasted almost one inning longer per outing on his home field.
Carlos Pena probably had the ugliest home/road splits for the Rays in 2009, as his .266 home average looked fantastic next to his puny .189 road average. Pena?s home OPS (.985) dwarfed his road OPS (.803) and, although his home/road HR totals were close, 17 of his 25 doubles came at Tropicana Field.
Boston Red Sox (+63)
Over the past few years, nobody has enjoyed the friendly confines of Fenway Park more than Dustin Pedroia.
Since 2007, Pedroia is batting .337 at Fenway with a .908 OPS. That?s a stark contrast to his .289 average and .768 OPS on the road. During his 2008 MVP campaign, Pedroia hit 35 of his MLB-leading 54 doubles in Boston.
Sox ace Josh Beckett went 7-5 on the road last year, but was 10-1 at home. That marked a turnaround for Beckett who, from 2007-2008, had a road ERA (2.54) that was far better than his ERA at Fenway (4.76). It will be interesting to see if Beckett continues to flourish at home.
Budding star Jon Lester posted a home ERA at least a run lower than his road ERA in each of his first two full seasons. Since the beginning of 2008, Lester is 13-10 on the road, but has compiled an impressive 18-4 record at home.
Milwaukee Brewers (+59)
The Brewers claimed the No. 3 spot on this list thanks to a +21 H/AWD in 2006. Over the last five years, no team in baseball had a higher single-season H/AWD.
On the road last year, Yovani Gallardo had a losing record and a 4.38 ERA. Gallardo?s home starts were a different story altogether, as he went 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and a stingy .198 BAA at Miller Park.
In 2008, star slugger Ryan Braun hit 39 points higher at home (.305) than he did on the road (.266). In 2009, however, Braun reversed course and hit 49 points higher on the road (.343) than at home (.294). Milwaukee?s H/AWD in 2010 will depend heavily on which Ryan Braun shows up.
Colorado Rockies (+59)
Todd Helton recently signed a two-year contract extension that should allow him to finish his career in Colorado. And who could blame him?
Helton?s lifetime home/road splits are borderline absurd. He enters 2010 with a ridiculous 1.100 home OPS (.885 on the road) and an even more ridiculous .361 home average (.294 on the road). Helton has hit 200 of his 325 career homers in the thin Colorado air.
Last season, Helton hit .348 at home (.302 on the road) while SS Troy Tulowitzki hit .326 at home (.267 on the road). The likely 3-4 hitters in Colorado?s Opening Day lineup, Helton and Tulowitzki tallied 111 of their combined 178 RBI at Coors Field.
Houston Astros (+56)
Houston?s high H/AWD ties into Wandy Rodriguez?s affinity for home cooking. Since 2007, Rodriguez is 20-11 at home with an impressive 2.63 ERA and .229 BAA. Away from Minute Maid Park, he is 12-21 with a 4.96 ERA. Not so impressive.
*The Philadelphia Phillies have the lowest H/AWD since 2005 (+7). They are the only team in baseball to post negative H/AWD differentials in two of the last five seasons.
We?re looking for teams that play significantly better at home than on the road, regardless of their overall records.
For example, the 2009 Yankees were 57-24 at home and 46-35 on the road. That comes out to a +11 H/AWD ? slightly above average (The average H/AWD in 2009 was 7.9). The Yankees were a tremendous team, but the difference between the Yankees at home and the Yankees on the road was negligible ? they were good wherever they played.
The lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, were pure H/AWD gold in 2009. Although they went 22-58 on the road, Pittsburgh went 40-41 at home for an impressive +18 H/AWD. The Pirates were vastly better at home than they were on the road.
A team can offer good value at home when relatively poor road play drags down its overall record enough for its home performance to be overshadowed.
Here are the teams with the highest home/away win differentials over the last five seasons. The number in parentheses is their H/AWD since 2005.
Tampa Bay Rays (+79)
The Rays had the highest H/AWD in baseball last year (+20), due in large part to the starters at the front of their young rotation.
Upcoming Opening Day starter James Shields pitched much better at home than on the road over the last two seasons. Since the beginning of 2008, Shields is 15-8 with a 3.17 ERA at home and 10-12 with a 4.72 ERA away from Tropicana Field.
Matt Garza showed similar Jekyll-Hyde tendencies in 2009, going 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA at home, but just 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA on the road. Garza lasted almost one inning longer per outing on his home field.
Carlos Pena probably had the ugliest home/road splits for the Rays in 2009, as his .266 home average looked fantastic next to his puny .189 road average. Pena?s home OPS (.985) dwarfed his road OPS (.803) and, although his home/road HR totals were close, 17 of his 25 doubles came at Tropicana Field.
Boston Red Sox (+63)
Over the past few years, nobody has enjoyed the friendly confines of Fenway Park more than Dustin Pedroia.
Since 2007, Pedroia is batting .337 at Fenway with a .908 OPS. That?s a stark contrast to his .289 average and .768 OPS on the road. During his 2008 MVP campaign, Pedroia hit 35 of his MLB-leading 54 doubles in Boston.
Sox ace Josh Beckett went 7-5 on the road last year, but was 10-1 at home. That marked a turnaround for Beckett who, from 2007-2008, had a road ERA (2.54) that was far better than his ERA at Fenway (4.76). It will be interesting to see if Beckett continues to flourish at home.
Budding star Jon Lester posted a home ERA at least a run lower than his road ERA in each of his first two full seasons. Since the beginning of 2008, Lester is 13-10 on the road, but has compiled an impressive 18-4 record at home.
Milwaukee Brewers (+59)
The Brewers claimed the No. 3 spot on this list thanks to a +21 H/AWD in 2006. Over the last five years, no team in baseball had a higher single-season H/AWD.
On the road last year, Yovani Gallardo had a losing record and a 4.38 ERA. Gallardo?s home starts were a different story altogether, as he went 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and a stingy .198 BAA at Miller Park.
In 2008, star slugger Ryan Braun hit 39 points higher at home (.305) than he did on the road (.266). In 2009, however, Braun reversed course and hit 49 points higher on the road (.343) than at home (.294). Milwaukee?s H/AWD in 2010 will depend heavily on which Ryan Braun shows up.
Colorado Rockies (+59)
Todd Helton recently signed a two-year contract extension that should allow him to finish his career in Colorado. And who could blame him?
Helton?s lifetime home/road splits are borderline absurd. He enters 2010 with a ridiculous 1.100 home OPS (.885 on the road) and an even more ridiculous .361 home average (.294 on the road). Helton has hit 200 of his 325 career homers in the thin Colorado air.
Last season, Helton hit .348 at home (.302 on the road) while SS Troy Tulowitzki hit .326 at home (.267 on the road). The likely 3-4 hitters in Colorado?s Opening Day lineup, Helton and Tulowitzki tallied 111 of their combined 178 RBI at Coors Field.
Houston Astros (+56)
Houston?s high H/AWD ties into Wandy Rodriguez?s affinity for home cooking. Since 2007, Rodriguez is 20-11 at home with an impressive 2.63 ERA and .229 BAA. Away from Minute Maid Park, he is 12-21 with a 4.96 ERA. Not so impressive.
*The Philadelphia Phillies have the lowest H/AWD since 2005 (+7). They are the only team in baseball to post negative H/AWD differentials in two of the last five seasons.
