Tonight's matchup reminds me of yesterday's DEN-KC game. That game was very close, decided by a single point. These are two teams which have been very good so far this season, the outcome of which is wide open. The line is shaded in favor of Tampa because of the perception that Bucs' defense is better than the Colts' offense (which is probably true). There are also legitimate concerns that Indy may not be as strong a team outdoors, as inside a dome -- where conditions are ideal.
The best value tonight is to play on the Colts, betting them in all four quarters. To do so, you must get at least a half point and not lay more than -125. The upside of this wager is tremendous, while the downside is minimal.
1Q: INDY +.5 (-120)
2Q: INDY +.5 (even)
3Q: INDY +.5 (-105)
4Q: INDY +.5 (-115)
Assuming the Colts keep this game close, they could win a majority of the four quarters.
SCENARIO 1: A close back and forth game -- in which case the Colts likely win at least 3 of four quarters. Colts win one quarter outright, Bucs win a quarter outright, other two quarters tie, which gives Colts the win (plus half-point).
SCENARIO 2: Colts pull an outirhgt upset -- Colts could win all four quarters. If Tampa's offense struggles tonight, Indy could win all four quarters as the dog is getting a half point.
SCENARIO 3: A close game for 2-3 quarters, and Tampa finally wins by a wide margin in the end of the game. Likely means a 2-2 split.
SCENARIO 4: A Tampa blowout win, where Indy is shut out or held to minimal points. Indy would lose 3 of 4 quarters. Very rare for any team to get outscored in all four quarters (only happens in about 5 percent of all NFL games).
Some examples from this season include the Bengals sweeping the board versus Cleveland last week (4-0). The Broncos went 3-1 yesterday in quarters, and likely should have gone 4-0 were it not for a terrible decision to kick to the speedy return man. Een in a game where one team dominated the other (MNF -- Raiders/Broncos), Oakland managed to cover in 2 of the 4 quarters. So, even a Tampa blowout does not necessarily translate into a loss.
The upside of this wager is excellent, presuming you share the belief that INDY will make this a close game. The Dungy factor certainly helps the Colts. It also helps that these are two excellent defenses and points will be hard to come by. That alone certainly favors the dog in every quarter.
Four bets tonight, pending a possible halftime angle or two.
-- Nolan Dalla
The best value tonight is to play on the Colts, betting them in all four quarters. To do so, you must get at least a half point and not lay more than -125. The upside of this wager is tremendous, while the downside is minimal.
1Q: INDY +.5 (-120)
2Q: INDY +.5 (even)
3Q: INDY +.5 (-105)
4Q: INDY +.5 (-115)
Assuming the Colts keep this game close, they could win a majority of the four quarters.
SCENARIO 1: A close back and forth game -- in which case the Colts likely win at least 3 of four quarters. Colts win one quarter outright, Bucs win a quarter outright, other two quarters tie, which gives Colts the win (plus half-point).
SCENARIO 2: Colts pull an outirhgt upset -- Colts could win all four quarters. If Tampa's offense struggles tonight, Indy could win all four quarters as the dog is getting a half point.
SCENARIO 3: A close game for 2-3 quarters, and Tampa finally wins by a wide margin in the end of the game. Likely means a 2-2 split.
SCENARIO 4: A Tampa blowout win, where Indy is shut out or held to minimal points. Indy would lose 3 of 4 quarters. Very rare for any team to get outscored in all four quarters (only happens in about 5 percent of all NFL games).
Some examples from this season include the Bengals sweeping the board versus Cleveland last week (4-0). The Broncos went 3-1 yesterday in quarters, and likely should have gone 4-0 were it not for a terrible decision to kick to the speedy return man. Een in a game where one team dominated the other (MNF -- Raiders/Broncos), Oakland managed to cover in 2 of the 4 quarters. So, even a Tampa blowout does not necessarily translate into a loss.
The upside of this wager is excellent, presuming you share the belief that INDY will make this a close game. The Dungy factor certainly helps the Colts. It also helps that these are two excellent defenses and points will be hard to come by. That alone certainly favors the dog in every quarter.
Four bets tonight, pending a possible halftime angle or two.
-- Nolan Dalla
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