Betting Against Last Years ML Dog Winners

edludes

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everyone is aware that bowl ats underdog covers win the game outright an inordinately high percentage of the time,so high many including many here have made lots of dough playing their Bowl dogs ml vs with points.I am playing against the 2005 ml dog winners in the 2006 bowl season,not in all,but in most games from here on out starting with tomarrows game.I feel the linesmaker is likely to make these teams eat some extra points if favored or get less points if dogs the next bowl year as last years bowl game winners particularly dogs,are always popular with players.Playing Okla State -2 vs 'Bama who covered in '05 as a +126 Ml dog.I am also playing against some of these '05 ML dogs that are fav's in'06(BC has covered two years in a row as ML dogs opened -7 vs Navy.They would seem to be candidates to be disappointed by the quality of their competition where as Navy will play to about 10% over whatever their best has been so far this year.)I know if both play to their best BC covers easily,but playing Navy +6 and hoping BC doesn't throw their #1 shot at the Middies.Playing under 38- in Fla St/Ucla,no side.Playing under 47 Mich/Usc with impunity.Back to playing against the '05 ML dog winners...Playing Auburn-1- (an '05 ats loser vs an '05 mldog winner),playing Ark-1-,GaTech+11,Boise St+7,Iowa+9(last years national champs most likely a bet against due to popularity)Florida+7-.Taking all with points to start,will add some ml dog plays later.GL to all handicappers
 
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edludes

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playing against Missouri..OregonState-3- along with Houston+5- previously posted for friday's slate.GL to all handicappers
 

edludes

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Playing over 58- Clemson/Kty.Everyone in the free world is moving on Missouri,just like they did on alabama just before gametime yesterday.Hope the money is wrong again.....Gl to all handicappers
 

IntenseOperator

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I had the same feeling about Mizzu. Seems to be everyone's favorite dog. There's a big fat trend favoring dogs in that bowl game. It's something like 9-1 ATS.

GL
 

cruisin

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Holiday Bowl had 8 straight dog covers, and Cal blew em out. Guess some of these trends won't hold up. Knowing which ones, of course, is another story.
 

edludes

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Yes Ohio State was a fav last year vs ND and covered.However,they were ML dog covers for the two years before that!!Three straight Bowl covers,two as ML dogs in 04 and 03 bowl seasons(this one being 06) plus a Heisman winning qb.My Dad went there and played against Tom Harmon in the late 30's so it's not a hater play just the way I think it works out,florida will play very well in this game.So anyway,the choice to go for two by the Beavers denied us the chance for the cover in that one,lost two more and sat out waiting for today which I like better.Navy/BC over 47,first half over 23-,already on Navy +6 and under 37- Virtech/Geo and Iowa+9.GL to all handicappers
 

edludes

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Also adding USC +1 in the Rose Bowl to the plays in the first post in the thread,plus the two totals right above.GL to all handicappers
 

edludes

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Parlays plus one ML

Parlays plus one ML

Played Boise +240 ML this am.Also played the following parlays:Last week-Navy+6,auburn-1-,arkansas-1-,boise st+7,florida+7- in a five teamer.yesterday:auburn-1-, GaTech+11,under 47 usc/Mich in a three.Arkansas,over 46 Ark,Gatech+10, in a three.And the granddaddy an 8 teamer played on saturday,Auburn-1-,ark-1-,over 46 ark,gatech+11,under 47 gatech,under47 ucs,under50 okla/Boise,and boise+7.Gl to all handicappers...Happy New Year!!!!!
 

edludes

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8-3 on posted sides(including the 2nd h on iowa) plus one ML on Boise State.Hit four of five sides yesterday,4-5 on totals this bowl season,so no more of them to trash up the performance of my sides( what a pisser to lose the three teamer on 28 fourth qtr points in the usc game.)I did figure out that Boise was going over before game time,just couldn't get to the computer to post it,but i did make a good bit parlaying Boise and over on the nightcap.As much as I hate to play them,ND+8 follows a trend that is undefeated so far this bowl season ats,and I am definately playing them with points and possibly ML.Other teams in this column of my notes before any of the games were played are Geo Tech,Boise St,,Fla St,Georgia,Usc,Iowa,and ND.All covered,four won outright so far.Nd will at least cover........Good Luck to all handicappers
 
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edludes

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Didn't mean not to share the trend.After the lines came out,I logged teams that lost on the scoreboard in last bowl season who were playing teams that covered as ML dogs in last years bowl season,(meaning they played out of their asses and should be looked at as a bet against in my mind),and last years losers were placed in an underdog role against last years ML dog winner.As the bowls progressed I looked at the teams in this column and they are now a pretty memorable group,boise st,Ga tech,,fla st,georgia,usc,iowa,and now ND.
 
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edludes

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ND didn't come close talent wise,though I thought they played hard.However in the national championship game I feel florida will surely cover.Ohio State has covered their last thre bowl games,last year as a fav vs ND and the two previous years they covered and won as underdogs.That combined with Smith winning the Heisman (a major,major distraction) means to me that an imperfect performance is forthcoming for the mighty Buckeyes.The talent gap is not as pronounced as people thinkin this game.If betting were all about indentifying who has the better team it would be easier,the ohio state money is doing that,but its really about who will play better on a particular day and on this day you can bet that florida will cover the 7.GL to all handicappers
 
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