Betting "bad lines" tonight........

[yyz]

Based on the Nick Douglas debate about bad lines, i thought I might post a couple of games as a test.



Miami/Orlando over 193 (was 191)

NY/NO under 184' (was 187)

LAL/Hou under 174 (was 176')

Min/Utah under 177' (was 179)


These are the games that I found with significant line moves. It is only a small sample, so I don't take much stock in them, but I am curious to see what transpires over the next few weeks.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I am very interested as well. Thanks for doing this, yyz. Should be a fun experiment.

 

[beantownjim]

1 WIN 3 LOSSES DOESNT MAKE YOUR ARGUMENT LOOK TO GOOD TONIGHT NICKY BOY.YOU 2 GUYS CAN FIGHT ALL YOU WANT AS LONG AS MY OVER IN THE NEW JERSEY AND CLEVELAND GAME CAME IN I GRIN WHEN I WIN

ALWAYS SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE THE COVERS THIS WAY YOU WONT BE TEMPTED TO TOUCH YOUR WEINER

 

[mjalam]

1 WIN 3 LOSSES DOESNT MAKE YOUR ARGUMENT LOOK TO GOOD TONIGHT NICKY BOY.YOU 2 GUYS CAN FIGHT ALL YOU WANT AS LONG AS MY OVER IN THE NEW JERSEY AND CLEVELAND GAME CAME IN I GRIN WHEN I WIN

ALWAYS SLEEP WITH YOUR HANDS ABOVE THE COVERS THIS WAY YOU WONT BE TEMPTED TO TOUCH YOUR WEINER

IT WENT 2-2

 

[yyz]

Remember fellas. This is just showing the results versus a significant line move. This doesn't mean that one would blindly bet these games. (They would still need to be games you liked in the first place.)



Miami/Orlando over 193 (was 191) 209

NY/NO under 184' (was 187) 204

LAL/Hou under 174 (was 176') 189

Min/Utah under 177' (was 179) 143


These games actually went 4-0 tonight by this "system". The system being, "does the line move affect your w/l?" No mater when you made your bet, or what line you got, the results would have been the same for you.

 

[yyz]

By the way.........I will be working from 6am-10pm tonight, so I can't post up. If someone wants to do the heavy work tonight, it would be great!

Thanks!

 

[beantownjim]

YYZ MOST OF US HERE DONT HAVE TIME FOR KIDS GAMES WE ARE TRYING TO MAKE A LIVING.IF YOU WERE ANY GOOD AT GAMBLING YOURSELF YOU WOULDNT BE FLIPPING HAMBURGERS FROM 6AM TO 10PM NOW RUN ALONG PAL AND GIVE ME A BIG MAC WITH NO SAUCE AND A LARGE FRIES.YYZ WOULD YOU MIND WORKING THE DRIVE THRU TODAY TYRONE CALLED IN SICK AGAIN.UNBELIEVABLE THE GUY FLIPS HAMBURGERS FOR A LIVING AND HE WANTS US TO DO HIS DIRTY WORK THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU HAVE 2 NIT WITS YYZ AND NICK DOUGLAS IN A DEBATE.

 

[goldcupsports]

Over time it will be a losing proposition.You are getting the worst of the number every time. You will not make money getting the worst of it every time. Especially in the NBA.

 

[KotysDad]

Exactly what hypothesis are you testing here???

That some games are gonna fall between the "best" line and current line is obvious.

Are you debating what % of plays will be affected?

I am not sure I get the point of this.

 

[KotysDad]

If you want to know how many games come within 1-3 points of the best line, just go to one of those sites like nss.net (which is now jim fiest dot something) and look at the past history of NBA games. They give the opening and closing lines and you can get your answer in about an hour instead of weeks.

:shrug:

 

[Nick Douglas]

I misunderstood what you are doing, yyz. It doesn't prove much to track every game. You just have to track your own wagers.

Kdad, I think checking what percentage of games fall 1 or 2 points off the line is also a bit misleading because it matters which side they fall off. If a line moved from 185 to 187.5, then a final total of 189 is a huge difference from a final total of 186.

 

[yyz]

I say everyone just quits betting, then there's no debate!

I guess what I wanted to see, was how many times a game is affected by the line move of 1-2 points. I figured it might be about 1-20 at best.

I'm tired. I worked all day flippin' burgers, and now I smell like Jim's nut sack on a good night!

I'll keep flippin burgers, Jim.......you keep flippin coins.