betting baseball vs football/basketball
- Thread starter Tapir Caper
- Start date
ok.
obviously i have some thoughts.
i'm trolling to find if anybody has found what i have. i have never had success betting baseball and never failed betting football and basketball. i do totals, unders most of the time. supplement with some sides. the last month i've been betting wnba and winning - without seeing any of the games. in fact, i cant even name the teams. contrarily, i know a great deal about baseball, but have never been able to do better than 50-50. i dont really lose, but waste time trying to beat it.
so...
i'm wondering if others see this pattern.
it seems that there are very few people consistently able to beat baseball whereas there are a good number able to beat basketball/football.
i'm not sure why this is, and i've thought about it for quite a long time to no great result.
i've been reading this forum for must be close to ten years. in all that time, the best baseball cappers are
- Bad Angel
- Titus
i cannot think of anyone else who consistently wins. whereas in football/basketball, any number of guys can come out ahead consistently. there has to be something fundamental at work here. i just can't see what it is.
- Bad Angel
- Titus
i cannot think of anyone else who consistently wins. whereas in football/basketball, any number of guys can come out ahead consistently. there has to be something fundamental at work here. i just can't see what it is.
Its tough to answer.. I think it is much easier to hit parlays in baseball such as 4 to 7 team parlays. I think that I could do really well if I just played 1 baseball game a day maybe 2 if the scenario was good. I think most people do poorly in baseball because there are so many more games than football, although with colloge and pro hoops going there is plenty of action. I just think baseball is easier to predict and easier to follow hot and cold teams. Football the teams are so up and down from each week.
Also, this will be my first year to monitor the football season on this site so that will be a new experience. Watch for my Viking game handicapping, I am usually excellent handicapping this team. I will tell you like it is and am never a homer. I dont bet against them personally because I did it once and it drove me crazy even tho I was a huge winner. Packers 34 - 0 last year. I just have a knack for knowing when to bet on or against them. Having said that I probably should just kick myself in the nuts.
hmm... seems there are two types of mindsets...
the first expects what has happened to keep happening
the second expects reversion to mean
i'm definitely in second camp.
In baseball, long streaks - more than four games - are common, but that does not seem to be the case in basketball and football. If you bet on a streak in baseball to reverse, you can be screwed. But in basketball and football, usually you don't need to chase more than three times to get a result. most times you can get it the first time, if you pick your spots.
personally I like football and college basketball. baseball is too long and way too hard to handicap everyday. My best luck has been college basketball and college football, last year I was okay on the NFL, only betting a few games each Sunday and every primetime game:mj07:
Actually, I've found most streaks stop at 4 but haven't bet any bases this year. Used to follow the White Sox and bet their games but watching last years team really turned me off to the sport. Haven't seen more than an inning this year.
I think what's tough in baseball is the value proposition on taking a line. You can make the right play, but it's not often rewarded as much as it is in football/baseball
books say NFL is hardest, but i dont find that. just go against the experts on espn. that's one simple way to win.
i find baseball hardest. nba regular season to me is unfathomable. but i dont like the league and dont watch/bet it until playoffs.
one of the problems with baseball vs football: individual games are too light. no one game matters much in baseball, whereas every game matters in football.
i'm not a stats or trends guy, i'm an intuition or circumstance guy. i feel how the game will depart from what the trends and experts say. that's for sides. for totals, most of what i do, i know patterns in basketball. can do very well in college hoops totals, pretty good in pro hoops playoffs totals, good in WNBA, good in NFL on sides and total. and yes, the key, for me, is to limit the number of games. it's easy to get in that contest mode of trying to pick every outcome, but that just leads to action betting and spinning wheels. others may have diff experiences, hence this thread. seems like there are some guys who make money and bet lots and lots of games, but i cant do that.
college hoops 2h totals are the easiest bets out there, especially in the january-mid-feb frame. after that gets a bit dicier with fouls and reffing as teams struggle to make ncaa, but before that games tend to conclude as they should.
baseball SEEMS like it ought to be easiest. you have same teams playing under same circumstances three or four days in a row. but somehow it's not as easy to predict.
only the very best mojo gets me hornier than a 2h 76 in the last week of january. but don't quote me on that. i will show what i mean when the time comes. they just post some numbers that there is no fking way on god's green earth the two teams can reach. and with totals, no one gets emotional, so you're free of the manipulations that mess up so many sides.
baseball to me is the hardest to be disciplined in. there are so many games, i feel like a dog running through the park. there are about fifteen things (results) i want to chase at the same time.
yeah. i think that non-110 numbers are harder to feel and estimate correctly. a number like 140 - it doesn't seem like that much, but you have to hit an ungodly percentage to beat that over time. so favorite betting is only where you have an extremely strong opinion that a team is going to win. otherwise, the number will wipe you out. that's not true in totals betting at 110 or better. you just have to hit a little better than 1/2, which is not hard if you can exercise discipline.
Last edited:
i rue the day that pinny shut down for USers. no one has really filled their supply. the books are a little better in that more of them offer more reduced juice than before, but pinny lets you push against the outcome you predict to where you can get odds on or even money on the majority of your bets. if you know what you're doing, and you can keep your discipline, you almost can't lose that way because you don't even have to hit 50% of your picks to make money. i guess pinny access is just one more thing our pathetic, criminal, terrorist government has messed up. someone tell me again why we need a central government? i dont think we do.
