Betting the NFL for Week 13
December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it?s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it?s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.
Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX
The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.
Keys to the Game-
In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don?t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.
Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.
Power Line ? Philadelphia by 2
Philadelphia covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Philadelphia -5.5, 44
Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS
The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak?s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio?s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.
Keys to the Game-
For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).
Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you?ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub?s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston?s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.
Power Line ? Houston by 7
Consensus ?Houston covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Jacksonville -1, 46
Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS
When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts? win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher?s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ?09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell?s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.
Keys to the Game-
Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league?s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn?t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.
The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to ?spy? Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.
Power Line ? Indianapolis by 12
? Tennessee covers
Sportsbook.com Line ?Indianapolis -6.5, 46
New England at Miami 1:00E CBS
Miami?s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England?s quest to obtain the AFC?s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano?s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.
Keys to the Game ?
It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.
Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won?t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the ?clutch? context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.
Power Line ? New England by 9
Forecaster ? New England covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? New England -4, 45.5
Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX
New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin?s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ?09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven?t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.
Keys to the Game-
It?s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they?ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.
The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don?t blame it trailing in losses, as they?ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.
Power Line ? Giants by 1
Dallas covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Dallas -2.5, 45.5
December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it?s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it?s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.
Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX
The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.
Keys to the Game-
In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don?t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.
Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.
Power Line ? Philadelphia by 2
Philadelphia covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Philadelphia -5.5, 44
Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS
The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak?s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio?s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.
Keys to the Game-
For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).
Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you?ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub?s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston?s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.
Power Line ? Houston by 7
Consensus ?Houston covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Jacksonville -1, 46
Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS
When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts? win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher?s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ?09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell?s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.
Keys to the Game-
Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league?s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn?t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.
The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to ?spy? Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.
Power Line ? Indianapolis by 12
? Tennessee covers
Sportsbook.com Line ?Indianapolis -6.5, 46
New England at Miami 1:00E CBS
Miami?s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England?s quest to obtain the AFC?s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano?s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.
Keys to the Game ?
It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.
Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won?t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the ?clutch? context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.
Power Line ? New England by 9
Forecaster ? New England covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? New England -4, 45.5
Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX
New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin?s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ?09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven?t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.
Keys to the Game-
It?s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they?ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.
The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don?t blame it trailing in losses, as they?ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.
Power Line ? Giants by 1
Dallas covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Dallas -2.5, 45.5
