Bettors fading Saints early

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Super Bowl Prop Bets: Outrageous but true

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Outrageous but true

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Outrageous but true


Super Bowl Sunday is the one day of the year your minister might ask you if the favorite will cover the spread and it's the one day no bookie will ever call in sick for.

The Super Bowl is the only game where every play has action on it. You see, Vegas takes advantage of the gambling holiday by creating as many proposition bets as possible. Prop bets are wagers on outcomes within the game.

Which team will have more first downs? Will there be a kick returned for a touchdown? If you can think of it, chances are, you can bet it.

Jay Kornegay, Executive Director of the Race and Sportsbook at Las Vegas Hilton, and a few accomplices, are credited with changing the landscape of prop betting during the ?90s.

Only one Super Bowl from 1990-97 was decided by less than double digits and the average margin of victory during that span was 19.6 points. Because of these one-sided games, Kornegay and his crew created ways to keep the games interesting.

?Halfway through the third quarter [bettors] were wandering around, they didn?t have anything to do,? he said. ?To keep everybody in their seats we basically expanded the prop menu.?

When the San Francisco 49ers were labeled as 18-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers in the 1995 Super Bowl, Kornegay knew he had a challenge on his hands to keep bettors interested.

?We took it to a new level in 1995,? he said. ?There were 30 or 40 props at that time so we doubled it because the game between the 49ers and Chargers was going to be lopsided. We had almost 100 props for that game and it was very well-received. From that point, it just got bigger and bigger every year.?



Kornegay and his brain trust of experts spent weeks producing the prop numbers for this Super Bowl?s lengthy sheet. They started working on them before the conference championships and Kornegay estimates they have somewhere around 430 prop bets on this year?s 24-page menu.

When the multitude of props first began to appear on the Vegas boards, the action was a little slow to come in. Now, Kornegay said they have people come in and bet as much as five figures on a single prop.

?We?ve always said that if you don?t have an opinion on the game itself, come and take a look at our board and we?ll give you one,? joked Kornegay.

Kornegay said bettors have really taken a liking to the cross-sport prop bets in recent years. He and his staff have posted nearly 75 of these props that mix the Super Bowl with sports like the NBA, college basketball, NHL, golf, soccer and NASCAR. One prop the Hilton offers is "Will the Orlando Magic's Dwight Howard have more free throw attempts on Sunday (vs. the Celtics) than the Saints and Colts will combine for first-quarter points?"

The coin toss is also a prop classic. The Hilton is supplying you with almost even money at -101 (risk $101 to win $100) for either heads or tails. But we all know metallic currency has a 50-50 shot of landing on one side or the other and history proves it.

Going into last season?s Super Bowl, 21 heads and 21 tails had turned up. When the Steelers incorrectly called tails, the NFC won its 12th straight coin toss and heads took a 22-21 advantage. So if the law of averages remains constant, this year?s toss will drop a tails.

So much fun with so many props to unwrap, it?s almost like Christmas. Let's muse over a few of the most outrageous prop bets offered for Super Sunday:

Gatorade props

Gatorade is the lifeblood of any athlete. But big game after big game we witness coaches getting doused with the famous sports beverage.

So oddsmakers have come up with a bet-quenching prop that asks: What color will the Gatorade be that sends a chill shock down the spine of the victorious coach?

Yellow is the favorite at less than even money with ?clear? or water coming in second at 8/5. Orange is posted at 11/2, lime green at 6/1 and we round out the odds with blue and red at 25/2.

Wait?aren?t lime green and yellow the same flavor?

But the Gatorade prop drenching doesn?t stop there. You can even attempt to predict whether defensive or offensive players will do the pouring.

This one likely depends on who is on the field at game?s end. If the offense is taking a knee, the shower will most certainly come from the defensive personnel who are listed at -165 (offense +135).

If this guy makes the trip down to Miami, he might be the favorite.

Celebrity props

Celebs can always be seen in the primo suites on Super Sunday and the books have delivered some odds on how many times the director in the production truck will cut to them.

Two sports figures that are sure to be there are Archie and Eli Manning. Oddsmakers have given the patriarchal Manning an over/under appearance number of 4 and Eli a total of 3.

These shots have to be live so those cute pics of the Manning boys in their football jerseys when they were six and 10 won?t count.

But what?s interesting about this prop is that the father and son could be sitting in close proximity to each other. If that?s the case, then the smart money would be on Eli because every pan to the Manning booth would likely show both.

Kim Kardashian, who boasts Saints all-purpose back Reggie Bush as her beau, has been given an appearance total of 2.5.

But the books have gone a few sizes extra with her prop options. They have asked bettors: If the Saints win the Super Bowl will Bush and Kardashian be engaged by July 31, 2010?

The answer of ?NO? is the popular choice with odds of -170. Come on now, it?s a match made in Hollywood.

And you can even wager on what color top the goddess will be wearing at the big game. Black is the favorite at 5/6, white comes in at 53/20 and any other color is 6/5.

Can?t she just throw on a pink No. 25 jersey? Oh wait, that didn?t work out too well for Jessica Simpson.

Halftime props

Iconic British rock band, The Who, is performing during this year?s Super Bowl halftime show. Let's just hope there isn't some sort of wardrobe malfunction.

During the band?s early years, The Who became the godfathers of on stage musical instrument destruction. After Pete Townsend accidentally broke the head of his guitar against a low ceiling during a 1964 show, he shattered the instrument in frustration, and the rest is history.

Propmakers have parlayed that act of theatrical chaos into a halftime betting opportunity. They ask: Will a member of The Who smash a guitar on stage during the halftime show? Books assume the band has mellowed in their later years with the answer of ?YES? getting +155 odds.

The second halftime prop featuring The Who stems from the first stating: If a member of the band smashes a guitar what will the guitar hit first? A fan is the funniest option available (lawsuit waiting to happen) and most profitable at 200/1 with the floor (1/4) going off as the favorite, followed by the speaker (7/2), microphone (9/2) and drummer (200/1).

Townsend was not only known for the six-string smashing technique but also his signature windmill move. So the prop gods want you to guess how many times Townsend will perform his legendary windmill strum. The total is set at 5.5 with the over (-175) taking the majority of action.

At the ripe age of 64 is Townsend still flexible enough to make the full rotation six times? Can you say torn rotator cuff?
 

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LAS VEGAS ? You don?t have to travel far off the Strip to be light years from the Str

LAS VEGAS ? You don?t have to travel far off the Strip to be light years from the Str

LAS VEGAS ? You don?t have to travel far off the Strip to be light years from the Strip.

A drive east on Tropicana Boulevard brings you past an array of business that range from 7-11 convenience stores to palm readers to places where, for a not-so-small fee, locals can cash their paychecks. Condos and apartment buildings, plucked down into the sand, are everywhere, and they are all in beautiful colors as long as you like beige.

After 15 of 20 traffic lights you will eventually reach Boulder Highway, home to tiny grind joints like the Longhorn, moderate-sized casinos like Arizona Charlie?s, and the ever present Sam?s Town.

Sam?s is to locals what the Strip mega-casinos are to tourists, and it?s also home to one of the best sportsbooks in the city.

?We?re not going to get the high rollers in here,? says engaging sportsbook manager Jack Schneider. ?We know what we are. But that doesn?t diminish the excitement that occurs here on Super Bowl Sunday.?

What occurs is a swarm of thousands of Las Vegas-area bettors, some of whom are placing bets for the first time in their lives, just because it?s the Super Bowl. It?s a scene that is replicated at every casino in the city. Hours before the start of the game, players seek out seats, and the lines to place bets are sometimes hundreds deep.

Schneider started in the casino business in the 1990s, punching tickets, and was hooked almost immediately. He landed a job at the Bellagio as a supervisor, then became the boss at Sam?s Town, which is literally 15 miles from the Bellagio but figuratively a lot further. Bellagio has Olives; Sam?s has a food court with a McDonald?s.

Sam?s Town caters to an older crowd (out-of-towners are not flown in at casino expense; they arrive in their own RVs and put roots down in the Sam?s special parking lot), but everyone from the cashiers to the blackjack dealers to the sportsbook workers seem to enjoy their jobs. Even notoriously grumpy and suspicious pit bosses go about their jobs with smiles.

Schneider, who may be the busiest man in the casino during Super Bowl week, always finds the time to patiently explain the difference between betting the point spread and betting the money line to novice customers.

?Sometimes it does get a little frustrating,? says Schneider. ?It would be great if everyone coming to the window could educate themselves a bit before they bet, but that?s the nature of the business and we appreciate everyone?s business.?

Even if that business is proportionally quite a bit smaller than what the big boys at the Mirage, Caesars and Hilton will be doing come Super Bowl weekend. Schneider points out that the largest bet he took at the Bellagio was $55,000; at Sam?s the biggest single wager was $10,000.

Much of Sam?s non-Super Bowl bets come in the form of parlays. ?It?s the one way,? says Schneider, ?that someone with not a lot of money can make a decent score.?

Stupak?s million-dollar bet

Every year around Super Bowl time the question is asked about the largest single wager ever made on the game, and that in turn conjures memories of the one and only Vegas legend Bob Stupak.

Stupak, a self-promoter in a town that is chock full of them, is credited with moving the Strip a quarter-mile to the North when he built the Stratosphere in the mid-1990s.
The story goes that in 1989 Stupak bet $1 million at the now-defunct Churchill Downs book (now the site of Planet Hollywood), taking the Bengals and 7 against San Francisco in Super Bowl XXIII.

The 49ers won, but the final was 20-16 and Stupak reportedly had his $1 million, minus the vig. The legend lives, but many locals in the business feel that Stupak may have hedged his bets, though there is no proof.

Little line movement

As of late Wednesday the line was holding in most books at Indianapolis -5.5, but Mirage properties (MGM, Mandalay Bay, NY/NY etc) were also holding firm at 5.

Maybe it was the bad shrimp at the buffet

President Obama?s advice to families about the virtues of saving money rather than ?blowing it? on trips to Vegas makes perfect sense, but it?s driving the locals ? whose livelihoods depend on tourists ? over the edge.

?(Las Vegas Mayor Oscar) Goodman said we lost $350 million in business the last time Obama talked about not coming here for conventions,? said one taxi driver. ?We have to eat, too.?

Local newspapers are reporting that Goodman plans to give the president an earful when Obama visits Vegas in a few weeks.
 

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Super Bowl XLIV weather report: No rain on Sunday

Super Bowl XLIV weather report: No rain on Sunday

Super Bowl XLIV weather report: No rain on Sunday

There is rain in the forecast for the greater Miami area this weekend, but it should stop sometime Saturday and allow Super Bowl XLIV to be a dry affair.

The long-range forecast calls for clouds moving in Friday, with rain in the evening - likely well after the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints holds their final practices - and thundershowers overnight.

The rain will continue into Saturday morning, when the teams will conduct final walkthroughs, but stop by midday. No more precipitation is scheduled for the area until Wednesday.

Temperatures will be in the 50s on Saturday night, move into the 60s during Sunday and back into the 50s for gametime, helping to dry the field and create good conditions for a pair of teams that rely on players with quick bursts of speed such as Reggie Wayne and Reggie Bush.

Oddsmakers have Super Bowl's total as high as 57 points heading into the weekend. The Colts are currently 4.5-point favorites.

The last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl was three years ago, when the game was also in Miami, and played in a steady rain for the first time in history. The weather did not seem to significantly impact the Colts, who amassed 430 total yards in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears that just played under the 47-point total.

Super Bowl VIII between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings at Rice Stadium in Houston had some intermittent drizzle but no heavy rain.

Outdoor games are not common for either the Colts or Saints, both of whom play their home games in climate-controlled domes. However, both teams won games at Miami during the regular season.

In Week 2, the Colts had the ball for less than 15 minutes but made the most of it and Peyton Manning hit a pair of long touchdown passes in a 27-23 win over the Dolphins as 3-point favorites in a Monday night game.

In Week 7, the Saints dug themselves a 24-3 hole in the second quarter but stormed back for a 46-34 win over the Dolphins as 6-point favorites in a late afternoon Sunday game, overcoming a season-high three interceptions by Drew Brees.

The Colts played just five outdoor games during the season, with road contests at Arizona, St. Louis and Houston. They won and covered the first four before resting their regulars for most of a 30-7 loss at Buffalo in the regular-seaosn finale.

It was 12 degrees for the game in Buffalo but at least 56 degrees for each of their other outdoor contests.

The Saints also played six outdoor games, with two of their road contests at domes in St. Louis and Atlanta. They were 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread, escaping with a 33-30 win at Washington as 9-point favorites in Week 13 and losing 23-10 at Carolina as 10-point underdogs in Week 17, when they also rested their starters.

It was 36 degrees for the game in Washington and 30 degrees for the contest in Carolina. All of their other road games were at least 64 degrees.
 

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BETWEEN THE LINES - PROP BETS

BETWEEN THE LINES - PROP BETS

BETWEEN THE LINES - PROP BETS
DREW BREES TO PASS FOR MORE YARDS IN THE SECOND HALF THAN FIRST

Conventional thinking has the Colts ahead, leaving the Saints to play catch-up in the second half.

REGGIE BUSH TO HAVE MORE THAN 281/2 yards receiving

Bush can get this prop with one catch. He averages 11 touches a game, and expect more than that.

PIERRE GARCON MORE THAN 581/2 yards receiving

Garcon is usually a downfield threat, and if the Saints key on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he will have one-on-one coverage and should break off at least one long one.

LONGEST FIELD GOAL MORE THAN 421/2 YARDS

Both field goal kickers have strong legs and should have a couple of chances to win this prop.

TOTAL PASS ATTEMPTS BY PEYTON MANNING MORE THAN 371/2

The Colts have little or no run game and will be passing all game long.

PIERRE THOMAS MORE THAN 121/2 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Thomas is the main person in the Saints' rushing attack. He will get plenty of carries if they try to keep Manning off the field.
 

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Super Bowl betting capsule

Super Bowl betting capsule

Super Bowl betting capsule
Time: 3:25 p.m. Line: Colts -5 Total: 561/2

TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? WEATHER: Mid-70s, 20 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: New Orleans failed to cover against Minnesota two weeks ago despite a plus-4 turnover edge. In all other games the past two seasons in which a team had such a positive margin, clubs were 33-0 against the line (straight up, too). ... Indianapolis and QB Peyton Manning rallied from an 11-point deficit in the AFC title game against the Jets to win, 30-17. The only team that went on to win the Super Bowl that crawled out of a deeper hole was Washington in the January 1988 divisional round, when it came back from 14-0 in Chicago to beat the Bears, 21-17. ... If games were to end after one quarter, the Saints' record their past 13 games would be 2-9-2. The Colts, meanwhile, have trailed after one period four times all season. ... The Vikings fumbled six times against the Saints in the NFC title game, tied for third most in league postseason history. ... New Orleans' defense, ranked 25th in the league, was on the field for 82 plays that game (none in overtime), the sixth most for any team all season. The Saints ran only 55 plays, a differential of 27. The greatest gap in a game this season was 49 when Miami ran 84 plays and Indianapolis 35 in Week 2, but the Colts won anyway, 27-23. ... Those 35 plays run by the Colts are the fewest by a team since Oakland had 34 in a 24-0 loss to Atlanta in Week 9 last season. ... The last time the Saints played in Miami, in Week 7, they rallied from 21 points down to win 46-34, matching the greatest comeback in team history. ... New Orleans had seven three-and-outs against Minnesota, four more than it had in any of the other 16 games Drew Brees started at QB. ... Scott Green will be the referee. He worked one victory apiece for New Orleans and Indianapolis, including the Colts' bizarre triumph over New England in which the Patriots were foiled on that controversial fourth-down try in the waning minutes. ... The Saints were outgained by 218 yards against Minnesota, the greatest negative discrepancy for a winning team in postseason history, according to the Elias folks. ... In half of Indianapolis' 14 regular-season victories, it overcame a fourth-quarter deficit to prevail. In each game, the Colts were favored, including by 121/2 points over San Francisco in an 18-14 home triumph. ... The Saints have scored TDs on eight opening drives this season, the most in the league. Indy has seven. On the other hand, New Orleans has yielded a first-possession touchdown in nine of its past 12 games. That stretch not only is the worst for any team this year but the lousiest for anyone the past six seasons. ... The league says the Super Bowl will be "distributed" to 185 foreign countries. Who's not getting it? WorldAlmanac.com says only 193 countries are in the world, give or take a couple. ... Brees is the league's top-rated passer. The last time such a No. 1 QB won the Super Bowl was Peyton Manning three seasons ago. ... The Tampa Bay curse: No team that has lost to the Buccaneers during the regular season has gone on to win that year's Super Bowl. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 16, 20-17 in OT. In a reverse twist, in 2002, when the Bucs won the title, they were two-time losers to the Saints. ... No team in the league defeated both the Saints and Colts this season. In 1979, however, San Diego had the most dominant performances against Super combatants, beating the Los Angeles Rams 40-16 and eventual world champion Pittsburgh, 35-7. ... New Orleans is 4-for-4 scoring touchdowns when starting a drive in enemy territory in the postseason. Indianapolis is 0-for-1 in such possessions. In the regular season, however, New Orleans had only five short touchdown marches. ... Now that New Orleans finally has reached the Big Game, only four existing franchises haven't -- the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions. Detroit, though, did win three NFL titles in the 1950s. ... During the regular season, New Orleans outgained foes by 46 yards a game, better than the Colts' plus-23.9 edge. Over the past eight Super Bowls, the team with the better differential has gone 3-5. But in the 20 years before that, they were 16-4.

? ANALYSIS: Judging by the over/under number of 561/2, matching the season high for any game this season (New Orleans-Arizona three weeks ago) and also the greatest for any Super Bowl, it's sure to be a high-scoring game. Then again, if Manning goes down early, the 100-1 odds that Indianapolis will get shut out seems attractive.

Anyway, both squads have QBs who are among the most accurate in history and an outstanding fleet of receivers, but it's the running games that separate the teams.

The Colts ground game had the worst output in the league at 80.9 yards a game in the regular season, and it was less productive in the playoffs. And since the Saints have shown in the past they can shut down premier backs (Adrian Peterson had 32 yards on 21 carries last season), Indy's ground game doesn't pose near the challenge behind Joseph Addai, who hasn't shown giddy-up in his stride.

That's the Saints' edge, with Reggie Bush, hungry for a new contract, being an all-purpose threat and with the power running of Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry) and Mike Bell. And if the Saints can come close to having a ball-control offense, the presence of standout Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (questionable, ankle) will be lessened.

The key for New Orleans is to not fall behind quickly, as is its custom, and to have strong safety play in the secondary to try to befuddle Manning, who has a tendency to lose track of aggressive defenders.

If the Saints win the toss, the ball should get rolling in their direction. And if that happens, Louisiana had better mobilize the National Guard to protect New Orleans again.

? FORECAST: Saints 26, Colts 21

? RECORD: Conference title games: 1-1 vs. spread; 2-0 straight up

Season total: 125-133-8 vs. spread; 160-106 straight up
 

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Super Bowl XLIV ? Explaining the Betting Possibilities

Super Bowl XLIV ? Explaining the Betting Possibilities

Super Bowl XLIV ? Explaining the Betting Possibilities

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning?s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don?t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don?t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning?s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy?s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can?t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won?t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team?s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

Sportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.
 

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Saints, Colts ready for battle

Saints, Colts ready for battle

Saints, Colts ready for battle
February 7, 2010
By SBGGlobal.com

Super Bowl XLIV
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 6:25 pm Eastern ? CBS



A high scoring game is expected on Sunday when the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts meet in Super Bowl XLIV Odds. The Saints had the top-ranked offense in the NFL this season led by Drew Brees while the Colts have perhaps the best quarterback in the game in Peyton Manning. Oddsmakers seem to think there will be a lot of scoring as the total is the highest in Super Bowl history.



Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5 at SBG Global.



Indianapolis will be trying to win their second Super Bowl title in the last four years while it will be the first-ever Super Bowl for the Saints. The Saints may not have the experience edge but they do have Brees who led the NFL with a 109.8 passer rating this season. He threw for 4,388 yards and led the league with 34 touchdown passes and the Saints led the league at 31.9 points per game. The Colts were seventh, averaging 26 points per game. "You understand just how explosive their offense can be," Manning said. "I think you have to be careful trying to get out of your rhythm in order to keep up with them. You still have to go play offense the way we have played all year, trying to be efficient. We have been excellent on third down, been good in the red zone. Those things will be important this year." Manning was second in the league with 4,500 yards and 33 TD passes. He has been virtually flawless in the NFL betting playoffs this season with a 104.6 passer rating, throwing five TDs and only one interception.






Much of the attention this past week has been on Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney?s ankle. He could play but won?t be at full strength.

"I think he'll be back and playing third downs. And I think he'll be effective, until I see something different," said Raheem Brock. The Colts have the defensive edge in this game as they were eighth in the league allowing 19.2 points per game while the Saints were 20th, allowing 21.3 points per game.



The Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five NFL betting games as an underdog. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.



The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff games.



The ?over? is 5-0-1 in the Saints last six playoff games. The ?over? is 5-1 in the Colts last six games overall.
 

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BETWEEN THE LINES
THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE COLTS (-5) OVER THE SAINTS

The game boils down to Peyton Manning and his ability to break down a defense. He torched the Jets and will torch the Saints.

Except for a porous Cardinals defense, the Saints have had trouble scoring and will not be able to keep up with the Colts.

The Saints will try to blitz, as they did to Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. If they do, they will pay for it.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE SAINTS-COLTS UNDER (57)

This is a tough number because both teams can score, but the Saints have been sputtering lately.

If the Colts have a lead in the second half, Manning will kill the clock with long drives.

With the emphasis on the offenses, watch one of the defenses step up.

TWO WEEKS AGO: 1-1

SEASON: 18-24-2
 

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CLASSIC OR DUD?: Saints figure to get physical but most favor Colts

But most side with Manning, Colts to win

By BRIAN BLESSING
SPECIAL TO THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

The two-week Super Bowl hype-fest mercifully has come to an end. The top two seeds, the Indianapolis Colts from the AFC and New Orleans Saints from the NFC, will settle the issue today in Miami.

The Saints didn't play their best in the NFC Championship Game, but they still found a way to win, which is the calling card of a high-quality team.

The Colts, while disposing of Baltimore and the New York Jets, were pressed in both postseason games.

After early money on Indianapolis surfaced around Las Vegas, the line has settled in with the Colts as 5-point favorites, and the total is around 57.

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney's injured right ankle has been a major pregame talking point. He'll likely play on a limited basis, and the impact he'll have in the game is anyone's guess.

Indianapolis won a number of tight games throughout the season, a further testament to quarterback Peyton Manning's leadership in pressure situations.

Many perceive the Saints to be a finesse team that has to take care of business through the air. Don't be fooled. New Orleans can play a physical brand of football. As much as Minnesota gave away a Super Bowl appearance, the Saints created many of those opportunities that punched their ticket.

In this matchup, the points look attractive, and New Orleans might be able to secure a title in its first appearance on the NFL's biggest stage. Will this year's edition be a classic or a dud? We'll know soon enough. I'm anticipating an entertaining event.

Teams with Super Bowl experience have fared extremely well over the years, which is an advantage for the Colts. I think the Saints might have gotten the jittery kinks out of their system against the Vikings.

Manning and Drew Brees should put on a show, with the San Diego Chargers castoff having the last laugh. I'll go with New Orleans, 27-24, and under the total is my strongest opinion.

Everyone seems to be expecting an aerial show, but the Saints could find success on the ground, and if Freeney is a nonfactor, Manning might opt to keep Brees off the field with lengthy, time-consuming drives.

Let's take a trip around town for opinions from various sports book directors and one oddsmaker:

? Mike Colbert, M Resort, Saints 28-24

The Indianapolis defense might get exposed. The Colts got the best of the Jets and Ravens, but those offenses pale in comparison to what they will face today. The Saints will be able to move the ball at will.

? Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton, Colts 34-21

Two great offenses will be on the field, but the Colts' defense ultimately might be the difference-maker. Other than the game against Arizona, which had a defense that couldn't stop Bo Peep, New Orleans has struggled offensively down the stretch.

? Art Manteris, Station Casinos, Colts 38-35

The injury to Freeney and issues at cornerback for the Colts should open up the passing game for the Saints. If Brees gets comfortable in the pocket, he will find his weapons. If it's the high-scoring, close game I'm anticipating, it would be difficult to bet against Manning finding a way to get the win.

? Tony Miller, Golden Nugget, Colts 34-31

This game comes down to the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, and the edge has to go to Manning. The Saints offense keeps them in the hunt, but I'll say Manning drives the Colts down the field and they win on a field goal on the final play.

? Jay Rood, MGM Mirage, Colts 24-21

I look for a lower-scoring game than most people. These two defensive units aren't getting the respect they deserve. I'm inclined to believe the Colts, as they have all season, will find a way to get it done.

? Bob Scucci, Boyd Gaming, Colts 27-21

Manning has looked as impressive as any quarterback has looked heading into a Super Bowl. I'm especially impressed with the way he figured out a great Jets defense in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints might experience first-half jitters. Eventually, they'll settle down, but it might come back to haunt them by game's end.

? Ken White, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Colts 35-31

If this game is played on a fast track, I look forward to plenty of scoring. Freeney's ankle injury leads me to believe Brees will have many opportunities to swing for the fence. But, in the end, the Colts' Super Bowl experience of 2007 ultimately will help them prevail.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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In the shadows
Super Bowl betting odds: Books detail action, predict final lines

Super Bowl betting odds: Books detail action, predict final lines

Super Bowl betting odds: Books detail action, predict final lines

Super Bowl calls for a super-sized action report. We called around offshore and in Vegas to find out where the pointspread and total will land by kickoff. Make sure to check out our NFL live odds page to find the current numbers.

Senior oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback fills us in on what?s happening at the MGM Mirage:

Opening pointspread and total: 3.5, 55.5

Friday afternoon line: 5, 57

Comments: Our pointspread was immediately bet up to 4.5 after opening at 3.5. I think the line will close at 4.5 with the total as high as 58 by kickoff.

Preferred prop: Player to score the first TD is the MGM?s most popular prop with Colts wideout Pierre Garcon receiving the most action.



Opening pointspread and total: 4, 56.5

Friday afternoon line: 4.5, 57

Comments: We were at 5.5 all week and I was certain that we'd be going to 6 at some point and would likely close 6.5. But then news broke on Colts DE Dwight Freeney. That definitely slowed down the action on the Colts. I think we?ll close at 5 or 5.5, but not as high as 6.

Preferred prop: Coin toss. Our bettors love this prop and it gives bettors action before the game even starts. It's also the cheapest bet on the board. Whichever side you bet, you're only laying a penny. Head's -1.01 and Tails is -1.01.

Jimmy Vaccaro makes the lines at Lucky?s Sportsbook:

Opening pointspread and total: 4, 56.5

Friday afternoon line: 5, 57

Comments: I think the over will close as high as 58 or 58.5. Just about all of our parlays are tied to the over. I think we?ll also see some more Colts money coming in with the line closing around 6.
Preferred prop: We?re going to be rooting for a missed field goal. We opened the bet with ?yes to a missed field goal? paying -180 but we?ve got it down to -150 now because of all the action on the ?no.?

Richard Gardner is the head oddsmaker with Bodog.com:

Opening line: Indianapolis -6.5 (-105)

Movement: Early money was on Indianapolis moving line to -6 -110 and then -6 -115. Then word of the Dwight Freeney injury so moved line back to -6 -105 and currently bets have been coming in on New Orleans pushing line back to -6 Even. The current line is still drawing a little more Saints money but still exposed on the Colts from the early money.
Percentage of action: Public 59 percent on Indianapolis, but sharps 54 percent on New Orleans

Moneyline: Fifty seven percent on New Orleans (+160)

Total: Seventy percent of public action on the over at 57 (opened at 56.5)

Sharp action: On adjusted line New Orleans -3.5 with a +250 payout.

Most popular prop: Coin toss with majority of folks on heads same as last year although by game time expect it to be black and black (follows the same pattern every year).

Fun prop getting the most handle: How many times will Pete Townshend do his legendary windmill move during half time show opened at 5 and was bet heavy on the over and was moved to 5.5

Jay Kornegay is the Executive Director Race & Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton

Opening line: 4.5, 56

Friday afternoon line: 5, 56.5

Comments: We opened -4.5 where most of the town opened -3.5 or -4. The light action took the game to -5.5 in a few days where it stayed for most of the time until this past Monday with all the news surrounding Freeney. These news reports made most of the action come in on the Saints which drove the like to -4.5 and -5 around town. We?re getting good two-way action at Colts -5. I see the total going higher than 56.5 by the time we close.
 

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
21,104
58
0
57
In the shadows
Super Bowl betting odds climbing offshore and in Vegas

Super Bowl betting odds climbing offshore and in Vegas

Super Bowl betting odds climbing offshore and in Vegas

Underdog and under bettors woke up a little happier this morning. The Super Bowl?s pointspread and over/under line are both growing leading up to this evening?s kick off.

Almost every major sportsbook is dealing Colts -5 or higher as of Sunday morning. In Vegas, the Hilton, Mirage, Planet Hollywood and Harrah?s properties are all dealing 5.5 while the Hard Rock is offering 6.

Offshore, only Pinnacle and 5Dimes are using 4.5 while BookMaker and SportsInteraction are at 5.5. Every other major offshore book is at 5 with the exception of Bodog and Sportsbetting, who are both dealing 6.

The number books first to post a Super Bowl pointspread two weeks ago was Indianapolis Colts -3.5 or -4 points.

That number was immediately bet up to 5 and climbed as high as 6 shortly before the Pro Bowl. The line started moving towards the Saints after more news came out on Colts' All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney.

The line bottomed at 4.5 before beginning its lift late last night.

Meanwhile, the total sits at 57 just about everywhere with a few 57.5s on the board (Hard Rock and SIA). The over/under had been sitting tight at 56.5 and 57 for most of last week.

Several saidon Friday afternoon that they thought the total would close at 58 or 58.5.

Make sure to check our NFL live odds page to keep up with the Super Bowl pointspread and total.
 
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