BIG 12 football, Week 5

Jayhawk_Thor

Rock Chalk
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Dec 26, 2004
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Full slate of Big 12 games this weekend... and an 11 o'clock kickoff in the KU/TAMU game... shoot me. Could we make it illegal to begin college games at this time? How are the students supposed to drink the night before... and drink before the game... if the kickoff is this early? As is, I will have to retire early on Friday in order to wake up at 10 a.m. and then go to the game 100% sober. :scared Not the funnest of times.
Thanks for reading the rant. Onto the picks.


Oklahoma +4 (Tex.)
---- Love to see the stinky line movement.
This line has dropped two points since the open, despite 59% of the public currently on Texas. This tells me Oklahoma is definately the right side... which is good, because I leaned to them intially anyway.
Oklahoma will be out for blood in this one, which is nothing new in this rivalry... but they were embarrased here last season, and this is the most important game on their schedule. They will pull out all the stops in this one. They also know a win here, and they WILL be the Big 12's representative at a BCS Bowl game... powerful motivation, as if they needed it.
Paul Thompson has played much better than I expected him to this season, and I think he can make Texas pay when they jam the line of scrimmage. Peterson won't run wild... but I don't think he will have to. I expect him to end with something around 125 HARD FOUGHT yards.
I will probably end up playing the money line closer to game time.

Oklahoma St. -2 (@KSU)
--- Everyone and their mother is on the Cowboys this week (78%)... and I think everyone is going to get payed.
I just don't see how the Wildcats hang with OSU here.
KSU is starting QB Freeman this week, the true freshman... who has been terrible this year... 29.8% completion, 0/4 ratio. This kid has talent, but this is far too soon to get him in there. Prince has come under considerable fire as well for not telling his starting senior QB, Meier, that he was being benched... he heard it from the media. Not something a new head coach does to endear himself to the veteran leaders of the squad... he also benched RB Clayton.
He is clearly looking to the future... as he knows his squad this year won't be going to a bowl. His loss is our gain... KSU will be a 'play against' team for me all season.

Kansas +2 (TAMU)
--- Confession time: I vowed after the Toledo debacle that I wouldnt bet on a KU game again this year... Two weeks later, I'm back.
I happen to love this game, purely from a handicapping standpoint... and therfore I must break my promise to myself for better or worse.
There is NO reason that KU should be an underdog here. They have a Jekyll and Hyde team. They are generally terrible on the road, and unbeatable at Memorial Stadium.
Which is what makes this such a good spot. Texas A&M is an overrated team. They have played 5 home games this season... 4 against terrible non-conferance teams, and one against TT. They lost to TT, but also SHOULD HAVE been shocked by Army (they stoned them inside the 5 on 4 straight plays to end the game)... (that game was in San Antonio).
McGee isn't getting a pleasant place to start on the road, for I believe the first time. I believe Memorial Stadium will be sold out... it is Homecoming Week in Lawrence... and people are excited about football. KU should have won in Lincoln last week (they really should have won by double digits in regulation were it not for difficulties inside the opponents 10 yard line... a fumble, a dropped pass, an interception, etc.).
Meier should be back for this one... and even if not, Barmann has been a very good substitute. He played TERRIBLE in the first quarter last week... I believe he started out 0-6 with 2 picks. But in the last 3 quarters he threw for over 400 yards. If they get the running game going, which I expect, it wont matter who is behind center.
I think KU wins this one by a TD.
Now lets see if the student section is as raucous with no alcohol in their systems :com:

Back on later with a couple more.
 

Destructor D

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Nice plays Jayhawk Thor. I already took Kansas on the ML for 10* & Oklahoma State -2 for 7*... biggest concern is Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS on the road since last season.

I'm leaning towards Oklahoma, but this game could go either way. Paul Thompson isn't good and could hurt them.

Good Luck!
 

Jayhawk_Thor

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Thanks DD! Good to see you on those, as well. I think Gundy's inexperiance, and the upheaval of the program led to those numbers last year. I expect to see a much more competitive team in the Big 12 this year.

Adding one more for now:

Texas/Oklahoma UNDER 49
---- This is going to be a hard fought, conservative game.
Both teams will look to get established on the ground, and the clock will be running. I really like both defenses as well.
You know Texas is going to play conservatively to allow McCoy to get comforatable, and Oklahoma certainly knows Thompson isnt Peyton Manning.
It helps this year that both teams are close, talent wise, and the game should remain competitive. I think scoring will be at a premium.
I expect a 21-17 type game...


As an aside... I have played a few totals this season, mostly unders... and have done very well. I think I have hit on like 8 of 11. Just wondering if you guys have noticed this too... coming into the season, with the clock rules, I wanted to mostly play unders if I found good spots, thinking that fewer points would be scored this year.
Are more games going under? Does anyone have the numbers on this? :shrug:
Would be curious to see this...
 

blgstocks

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GL jayhwak

is it a big play on KU or not. Cause i really thought we were on the right side last time you took KU. Besides if this game is another heartbreaking 2 OT, it will be worth the unit!
 

Jayhawk_Thor

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GL jayhwak

is it a big play on KU or not. Cause i really thought we were on the right side last time you took KU. Besides if this game is another heartbreaking 2 OT, it will be worth the unit!

Thanks my friend. We WERE on the right side! Unfortunately the final score didn't recognize that...:mj16:

But yeah... I will probably make an above average play on this one... a unit and a half probably... Haven't placed the wager itself yet... honestly, I am waiting to hear indefinately the status of Meier (he is cleared to play but Mangino hasnt said whether he will get the start). The play won't change on that info, but the confidence will.

GL to you if you hop on, man... I think we'll cash this one... :Yep:

I will post Meier's status if I hear anything tomorrow on campus.
 

treynolds

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im glad to see your on ku i really like them this weekend also. I dont have any numbers on the unders, but it does seem like they have been hitting alot early on in the season, especially in primetime games. The new rule changes have really taken alot of plays out of the games.

Good Luck
 

Jayhawk_Thor

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Thanks for the words fellas.

I have one more Big 12 play before I head off to bed early... in order to wake up for the KU game tomorrow.

Texas Tech -4.5 (Missouri)
--- Misery is going to get stomped in this one.
They have run up a 5-0 record by playing 5 terrible teams, 4 of which were in Colombia.
This one won't be. They will be taking a VASTLY overrated offense into Lubock. I think TT will be able to throw all over them.
TT actually tested themselves in the preseason, unlike the Tigers. The Raiders have played 3 road games already, and have a tough, close Big 12 win under their belt on the road in College Station.
This is a team that is currently underrated, in my opinion, and they will make a statement against a deceivingly ranked team.
Tech is 17-7 in their last 24 home games.

Have fun watching football tomorrow, guys. And good luck with your bets.
 

vvegas29

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Agree with you on all games, although I'm laying off the TTech/Mizzou battle.

Glad to see you are back on your team this week. Last week you were a doubter against the huskers. I'm right back on KU this week in total agreement that at home they should not be getting points.

Great home dog, and rock solid 7-1 ATS last 8 home games vs Big XII opponents.

Hope we all collect!!
 

Jayhawk_Thor

Rock Chalk
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Dec 26, 2004
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Off to Memorial Stadium.

Pleasantly surprised to see that the Jayhawks have become the favorite at -1 (even though the majority of the public is on TAMU)... a lot of late money is hitting them.

Have a great Saturday, guys.
 

trolln4walii

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Jul 11, 2004
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GL today Thor. With you on your J-Hawks for my best play today. Also played the Raiders. Butt'n heads on the Tex/Okla game. What's up with that KSt coach? May have to add the Cowboys for a play with that controversy (just hate being on side backed by that high %) Enjoy the game :mj06:
 
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