Big 12 Preview (Part 1)

The Judge

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Aug 5, 2004
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Baylor Bears
The Bears have become nothing more than a doormat for the rest of the Big 12. The fact is that they do not belong in this conference and were only granted admission in the first place because former Texas Governor, Ann Richards made sure of it. At the time that the Southwest Conference was dissolved and the Big 8 accepted the four Texas schools into their ranks to become the Big 12, TCU was the top candidate for the fourth spot. Because Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all state schools, the merger required the approval of the Governor?s office and Richards held the deal hostage until the conference settled on Baylor. In retrospect, Richards did her alma mater no favors as they have had the snot kicked out of them by every team in the Big 12 since its inception.

The single shining moment for Baylor has been their unbelievable upset over Texas A&M last season. The Bears rallied late in the game to beat the Aggies 35-34 as 24 point underdogs and you would have thought that it was the second coming of Christ at this Baptist school in Waco. Even with that unlikely victory, the team put up a record of 3-8 and still has not been able to win four games in the same season since 1996 although they did finish a very nice 7-3 against the number in 2004.

The Bears have lost 24 straight road games since the 2000 opener at North Texas and are now 6-66 SU in conference play since joining the league. Being the worst team in the Big 12 means that you have to play every conference game against a team that is better and that is made even more difficult in the powerful Big 12 South. If there is a player to watch on this team it has to be Danny Sepulveda, winner of the Ray Guy Award in 2004 and one of the best punters in the nation.

A couple of positive notes for gamblers; Baylor was a perfect 6-0 ATS last year at home and is also 6-0 ATS over their last six non-conference opponents. They have also lost 24 straight road games since the 2000 opener at North Texas but Baylor could very well start the 2005 season 3-0 with wins over Army, Samford and SMU.

Oklahoma Sooners
Despite losing efforts in the National Championship Game two years in a row, the Sooners still own the best record in NCAA Division 1A Football since the turn of the century at 60-7. That my friends, is six wins better than any other team, but that record does little to fill the spots that were prematurely reserved in a certain trophy case in Norman. Nonetheless HC Bob Stoops has done an awesome job since arriving at Oklahoma 1999 when he inherited OU football team with average players and turned them into a perennial powerhouse.

Former Heisman Trophy winner, Jason White was denied an 11th year of eligibility, so OU will be looking to fill the quarterback position along with several others. Although the Sooners had 10 players from last year drafted by NFL team, White was not one of them but there is no question that he will be sorely missed. Rhett Bomar, a redshirt freshman, will contend for the quarterback job along with junior Paul Thompson who will probably get the nod and will have one of the most exciting players in college football in the backfield. Freshman Adrian Peterson was the runner-up for the 2004 Heisman Trophy, rushing for 100 yards or more in 11 of Oklahoma?s 13 games. The running back had 339 carries for 1,925 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, while scoring at least one touchdown in nine outings. The offensive line is not very big nor is it very deep and protecting a new quarterback with little game experience will be a challenge. The receivers are thin due to the huge loss of talent to graduation but the group is very athletic and will just need someone to get them the ball.

The defensive line is solid again after being ranked 6th against the run last season by allowing just 94.6 yards per game. The linebacking crew is also top notch but overall the defense needs to replace seven starters. The secondary was exploited at times last year and after recording 20 or more interceptions four straight seasons, they had just seven last year and were ranked 48th in the country against the pass allowing 204.4 yards per game.

The Sooners should capitalize on an easier than normal schedule as Oklahoma plays just three true road games the entire season. They play both Texas and Kansas on a neutral field but will travel to UCLA on September 17th for a game that will be their first real test. The annual Red River Shootout with Texas has been dominated by Oklahoma the past five seasons but many think that this is the year that UT gets some revenge. A final road game in Lubbock against an explosive Texas Tech team has the potential to be another stumbling block.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State is a team that could compete in almost any other conference other than the Big 12 South but having to play Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and half of the Big 12 North every year has just been too much for this program to handle. The Cowboys finished 7-5 in 2004 which was only good enough for 5th place in the South Division, just ahead of Baylor. After last season, Les Miles left the team to take the head coaching job at LSU and is replaced by former Cowboy quarterback Mike Gundy who holds the OSU records for most passing yards in a career (7,997), a season (2,203) and a game (429). It?s a shame he can?t suit up and play this year.

New Offensive coordinator, Larry Fedora will institute a no huddle, spread offense that he brings with him from Florida. Donovan Woods should keep his job as the starting quarterback after passing for 1,491 yards with 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 2004. There is great chemistry between Donovan and his older brother, D?Juan Woods who led the Cowboys in receptions, yards and touchdowns last season and the two hooked up 29 times last year for 650 yards. The loss of stud running back Vernard Morency will be felt with no standout player to takes his place.

The defense returns seven starters to a team that ranked 2nd only to Southern Cal last season in turnover ratio with a +17 but that did little to offset the 4.6 yards per carry that was allowed by the front four. This year does not look much more promising with JUCO transfers and young inexperienced players in several positions, especially on the line, and teams should be able to run on them again.

The Cowboys are fortunate to have their first five games at home and the first three are against cupcakes such as Montana State, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State. This will hopefully give the team a chance to get accustomed to their new schemes on both side of the ball before ending the season with a brutal slate featuring Texas A&M, Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Oklahoma State?s home games have proven to be quite profitable recently as they are 13-5 ATS in Stillwater over the last three seasons but are only 6-16 ATS as a road underdog since 1999.

Texas Longhorns
If Mack Brown is going to ever get over the hump at Texas, this had better be the year. This is without question the best team Brown has had in his ten years in Austin and the expectations for this team have never been higher. Bob Stoops and his Sooners have been the biggest thorn in his side as they have dominated the Longhorns the last five years and with OU having a bit of a down year (by their standards), a win on October 8th in Dallas is an absolute must if UT is to have the chance to return to Pasadena this year for the National Championship game.

Four-time 1,000 yard rusher, Cedric Benson is playing for the Chicago Bears this season and replacing a player like that is no easy task. Quarterback Vince Young is 17-2 as a starter and last year as a sophomore, he ran the nation?s 7th ranked offense on his way to becoming the first in Longhorn history to both run and pass for over 1,000 yards. His name is already on the short list of players vying for the Heisman Trophy, after his unbelievable performance in last year?s Rose Bowl caught the attention of many who were unaware just how versatile a player he is. One of the best offensive lines in the nation returns almost intact and will be needed as Texas breaks in new players at running back and fullback but the team is deep at these positions. The receivers are unproven but Jordan Shipley and Limas Sweed both have break away speed as do the backups. One of Young?s favorite targets last year was TE David Thomas who has great hands so as long as Young can improve on the 11 interceptions thrown last year, this unit should be able to consistently move the chains against any team in the nation.

The defense finished last year ranked 16th in the country against the run and this season, nine starters return from that unit. The loss of All-American LB Derrick Johnson will be felt but the defensive line is the consensus best in America and will make the young linebacking crew look good. The secondary is full of speedsters who are all big hitters, and the team is very deep at every cover position.

This year, Oklahoma is not the only game that generates genuine concern among the Longhorn faithful. For the first time in school history, Texas plays Ohio State on September 10th at The Horseshoe in Columbus. While both teams deserve credit for scheduling an out of conference game of this magnitude, not often do we see two teams with legitimate national title aspirations face off this early in the season. The entire country will be watching this match-up as the winner of this game gets a huge boost in confidence that could propel the team through the remainder of their schedule and it certainly won?t hurt their strength of schedule rating. No prediction here but if there is any doubt who I am pulling for, check my avatar.
 
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