Big 12 Sweet 16

Sun Tzu

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My top tourney play this year:

Texas Tech Red Raiders


3 Unit Play (would be my third highest play this season):

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Very surprised at these lines.

In Non Big 12:

Utah Utes
Villanova Wildcats
 
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gman2

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arizona is favored in that game? gimmie a break. couldnt care less about the seeds. oklahoma state is simply a better team than arizona. with you there
 

Sun Tzu

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I was pretty surprised. I expected OSU -2 or so. Az could win of course, but if OSU shows to play they win, and this is a team with 4 starters back from a FF team. That said, it wont break my heart for Eddie to lose again!
 

maverick2112

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Maybe I am just missing something but I dont see why the high opinions on OSU.........Look at their last 9 games

Lost at Nebraska..

Lost at Kansas

Beat Texas a&m at home by only 6

Lost to Texas at home

Beat a 14-16 Colorado team by only 2 after cu had to play the day before

Beat a KU team with an injured Lankford by 3

Beat Texas Tech by only 4

was neck and neck with SE Louisiana in first round on basically a home friendly court

Todays game against Southern Illinios was really close until the last 5 minutes again having a home croud at ok city

To me OSU was blowing teams out in the early season but they sure have had close calls the last few weeks.........I just dont see where they are playing that great...a really good team would have blown out Colorado and SE Louisiana...I just dont see where OSU is playing that well......
 
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gman2

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actually nice to see vegas really step out and take a stand on a lot of these games coming up. installing ncstate, louisville, and arizona is ballsy on their part.

this much i do know -- arizona is done after thursday. but washington deserves way more respect than theyre getting. what about that team dont people like? and its not like you can say that washington is the dog because their pac10 finesse style will have trouble going up against a physical team that will slow them down. louisville is pretty much a mirror image of washington. i think it takes a good pair of nuts to go against washington. arizona doesnt impress me, but washington is friggin good and getting no respect.

i will say this for oklahoma state: when they bring their best game, they are every bit as good as north carolina and illinois. cowboys have stretches where they just absolute outclass their opponent. they dont always bring it. but assuming both arizona and oklahoma state play 'their games', oklahoma state is definitely a few baskets better
 

gman2

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Sun Tzu said:
Gman I am thinking 2 upsets in Austin. Your thoughts?

On a side note - September 10, 7pm. Columbus, Ohio?

michigan state? absolutely. thought the line would be duke -3. but with it opening at 4.5, im putting a 50/50 split on the spread and moneyline.
utah? can definitely see that one too, although i have had a bitch of a time betting for/against kentucky this year. they screw me no matter if i back 'em or fade 'em. im really disappointed in cincy. not necessarily surprised, because cincy getting bounced early has been common. but that game was there for the taking and cincy let kentucky sieze control and get the win. i still absolutely think cincy is the better team talent wise but huggins got outcoached. but i digress.

you gonna be making the trip in september? i will be doing my best to grab tickets for that game. im sure you would agree that the winner of that game could easily play itself into the national championship game. huge, huge game for such an early date in the season. just to throw out a number, you think osu (-4) sounds right? watching young go up against the great speed ohio state has at lineback will be awesome to watch. looking forward to it, even though im not exactly a buckeye fan. call it the ginn-tressel factor. those two are the only reason i can stomach rooting for osu
 

Nickelback

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gman2 said:
this much i do know -- arizona is done after thursday. but washington deserves way more respect than theyre getting. what about that team dont people like? and its not like you can say that washington is the dog because their pac10 finesse style will have trouble going up against a physical team that will slow them down. louisville is pretty much a mirror image of washington. i think it takes a good pair of nuts to go against washington. arizona doesnt impress me, but washington is friggin good and getting no respect.

If Washington impresses you then how can Arizona not impress you? Their only two losses the last 15+ games have been against Washington only! Also a rather bold statement to say Arizona will certainly lose on Thursday . . . how many times have you actually seen Arizona play this year Gman? Anyone who has seen them on a consistent basis will tell you this is a very good team. . . the most complete team in the Pac-10 over Washington because they can take on different styles of play easier than the Huskies. Yeah, Washington's style beat Arizona this year two out of three but that doesn't mean Arizona is a second tier team.

Also, Vegas didn't install Arizona as the favorite. . . LVSC released this game at a pk. If you really check into this game (stats, records, etc) then this is as close to a true pk game you'll find.

That being said, I can understand why many would take OSU with their experience and aggressive play which could be the end for Arizona. But to say that OSU is clearly the better team and Arizona is clearly finished on Thursday when this game on paper is a pk tells me that you really haven't seen Arizona that much this year. I've seen OSU many times this year on ESPN and they are a great team. . . how many times have you seen Arizona? If its only in their losing efforts to Washington then that's not enough.
 

Sun Tzu

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I have seen Zona play very well - I have also seen horrible performances v Washington State and Virginia that are rather inexplicable.
 

Scott4USC

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I agree Nickelback that this game could go 50/50. OSU plays better defense but Arizona has better offense.

I am not sure why OSU has so many fans hyping them up throughout this tourney. OSU has NOT dominated an opponent in their last 8 games. 8 straight games OSU has barely won or barely lost. (except maybe round 1 of tourney) Has anybody been impressed with their tourney play? Arizona has looked a lot more impressive in the tourney IMO.

Not sure why OSU has the confidence of so many.

If J. Graham continues his streak of foul trouble in this tourney, Arizona def. has the advantage. OSU will not have the luxury of McFarlin bailing them out like he did against So. Ill. OSU would have lost by 5+ pts if McFarlin didn't dominate. He won't dominate against Arizona. 10-13 --> 31pts

Can't wait to watch this game.
 

Blackman

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Considering I picked Oklahoma State to win the whole thing, I'm right with you on this one. Will gladly take this line.

Best of luck.
 

Nickelback

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Losing at home to Washington State the way Arizona did was the best thing that has happened to them all year. . . believe it or not. . .

I really think looking at November/December games are meaningless even though I hear the committee takes a close look to determine at large bids. Arizona is a completely different team right now and I'm sure OSU is the same. Stoudamire for one is playing the best basketball he can right now unlike the first part of the year and Arizona has surrounding players doing things they weren't back in November.

One big concern for me still is Frye. . . how will he react to OSU's strength upfront? He has been suspect to me because he will look like a god against inferior competition yet struggle against guys on his level of play at times. He could be brilliant or look like a freshman center on Thursday. . . which will it be?
 

Sun Tzu

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It does seem to me in what i have watched that the refs are not calling the games as tightly as they have in the past. Would certainly favor OSU if that held up.
 

Scott4USC

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Nickelback

Will Arizona attack the basket. They are so physically talented but will they put it to use. I think if Arizona attacks the basket, they will get McFarlin and Graham in foul trouble. That Adams kid should be attacking the basket 10 times a game. I don't get why so often you see teams settle for outside shots. I think thats a reflection on bad coaching. Coach should say DRIVE TO BASKET or SIT. College hoops has 5 fouls your out, so ATTACK and get them players out of the game. No question in my mind Graham will foul out if Arizona attacks.

I thought Miss. St. did pretty good job attacking the basket against Duke, unfortunately they were not putting the ball in the hoop and missed ton of free throws.
 

Nickelback

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Problem is that Stoudamire is horrible handling the ball. . . you want him to take the last shot of the game for Arizona but not if its off a dribble! Shakur is starting to take it to the basket more often than he has but still needs practice at it. . . Hassan as you said is the best threat to take it in every time but he doesn't always go for it either. Will be interesting to see if they attack. I think Lute will stress for Arizona to get it in to Frye and let him dictate what happens next. . . a turn around jumper, pass out for the open jumper or dish it off to someone cutting to the basket
 

gman2

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nickelback:

why do you have it in your head that arizona plays in anonymity. this is the year 2005 bro. every single power conference team either has a package with foxsports or espn/abc that puts about 90% of their games on the air for the nation to see. not to mention arizona gets the majority of the west coast national tv games anyways, so theyre often playing in the only game on tv once a week and often twice. the whole 'how many times have you seen arizona play' theory really wont fly. you pac-10 people really have to get off this 'we get no respect because we play out west' train. im a self-professed basketball junkie. i watch far more basketball than i probably need to. suffice to say, i certainly have watched enough zona to offer my opinion.

i dont ever remember saying arizona is a second-tier team. i simply said im not overly impressed with them. washington is the one team out west that i think is most dangerous.

i dont think arizona is the most cohesive team, and theres many times when lute is trying to 'manage his talent' as opposed to trying to coach basketball. zona has a lot of me-first players, and that starts with stoudamire. washington is willing to make the extra pass and it should come as no surprise that the huskies average 3 more assists per game than arizona. when stoudamire is hot, he's borderline unstoppable. but when he is cold, or when he isnt getting the ball, he visibly pouts on the floor. he's a great player, but i just like washingtons composure and cohesion more than arizona. purely a subjective opinion and observation (from someone who doesnt watch zona basketball :rolleyes: ). i think the huskies do a great job of swinging the ball around the perimeter and then driving into the gaps to draw and kick. both teams shoot a lot of jump shots, but i think washington has more balance on the perimeter (or from the guys who shoot it from the perimeter). ostensibly, arizona is a lights-out 3-point shooting team (at 50%). but those numbers are skewed by stoudamire. he is such a great outside shooter that his 51% shooting really hides the fact that only 2 other guys shoot better than 36% (and mclellan does it in limited minutes). five guys in washingtons rotation can nail the 3.

im not trying to get into a statistical debate, because when the ball is tossed up, stats often go out the window. what im getting at is that i like washington's cohesion and balance, as opposed to what i almost think is arizona's collection of talent that can be erratic at times.

and i think the two meetings for each team against washington state tell a lot about both teams, and the outcomes have nothing to do with it.

no secret that washington state's style can frustrate even the best of teams. the final scores mean nothing. couldnt care less that washington went 2-0 against them and arizona split 1-1.

what stands out to me is that when times get tough for arizona, do they play together or do they branch off and try to make it a one-on-one game and do their own thing?

vs. washington state:
arizona had just 8 assists in the first meeting.
arizona had just 9 assists in the second meeting.

vs. washington state:
washington had 11 assists in the first meeting.
washington had 20 assists in the 2nd meeting.

huskies had almost double the amount of assists.

incidentally, stoudamire was 4-14 and 1-7 from the floor in both games. he contributed 2 rebounds and 2 assists in the first meeting. 2 rebounds and 4 assists in the 2nd meeting.

as you know, i certainly think stoudamire is one of the premier shooters in the country. hes a terrific player. but when the going gets tough, do he step up like he did against ucla and arizona state to knock down the big shot? or does he go into a shell and pout the way he did vs. washington state both times, or the way he wasnt composed on the road in washington.

i dont think theres any doubt that arizona has every bit as much athleticism as a team like north carolina. but i dont like the fact that stoudamire is their leader, but also their biggest liability at times with his attitude. when he's good, arizona is a top 5 team. zona will bury you if they jump out to an early lead. but i think washington is better at staying composed, playing together, and battling through tough times.
 

Nickelback

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Ok, I understand your opinion about Arizona vs. Washington but what about Arizona vs. Oklahoma State? Why do you believe OSU is so much better?

I still say Arizona is the most complete team in the Pac 10 if you factor in defense and size up front but you make very strong arguments from the team play perspective. However, Washington really doesn't play solid defense at all yet Arizona has won a couple games this year because of their defense (most notably at Marquette). And we all know that Washington doesn't have the size up front.

Your comments about Stoudamire are right on the money but I believe he has worked on the team aspect of his game a little more in recent months (still not the best as you mention because he mainly creates for himself more than his teammates). That being said Washington clearly plays better team basketball for sure as they work much harder to find the open shot than Arizona.

Does OSU come off as a team that plays a similar team play mode as Washington? Just trying to figure out why OSU in your mind is clearly the better team.
 

gjn23

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Further to the point of how the rest of the nation cannot seem to get the story straight regarding Arizona in the first round....

Dan Patrick is having a discussion on bad 1st round losses, the Bucknell/Kansas game being the generator of the topic. They are trying to come up with worse ones. Of course Hamption over #2 seed Iowa State is mentioned. Amazingly, Richmond over Syracuse is not. But here's the kicker...

When Patrick comes to East Tennessee State and Mr. Jennings over Arizona, he says that ETSU beat Arizona "just a couple of years ago".

Couple of years ago? That was in 1992.

We've been to more final 4's than experienced first round losses since the program took off in 1988 (and one loss was as a 9 seed last year)....so yeah, I believe the rest of the country doesn't watch as many of our games.

As for this game...it's a toss-up. I think you'll see Lute go to the 1-3-1 zone and make ok state beat us from outside....a risky prop since ok state led the nation in 3 pt % but most of those are off dribble drive/kickouts....the 1-3-1 prevents that. I also think you will see Frye featured down low. Ok state is tough but they are giving up 3-5 inches to frye and radinovich. Im a big proponent of the inside-out philosophy, especially when you have a talented center, it creates fouls, open jumpers or gives frye 1-1 with a shorter guy.

I think the key to the game will be roubounding, can we limit ok state to one shot. Problem vs UW was that they shot horrible % but when you get 2-3-4 shots each possession you really didnt stop them.

Great game, could go either way. Going in I see little differences between the teams.
 
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