good luck with our Kansas play
there is a lot of value in this play.....+4..
betcha it drops to +3 by game time
there is a lot of value in this play.....+4..
betcha it drops to +3 by game time
Big 12 Weekend
- Thread starter Jayhawk_Thor
- Start date
Glad I got on the two earlier games when I did... KU is down to +3.5, Marshall is down to +9.5...
Anyhow, wanted to finish out my Big 12 picks for this week.
ISU +14 (@Iowa), -110, 55/50
--- Iowa St. hasn't played well yet this season... but they have always struck me as a team that played up or down to their competition. They played well enough to win both games... and I dont put a ton of stock in the UNLV game... I think they have a very underrated team.
This is a fierce rivalry game, and I think ISU will keep it within single digits.
Baylor +12.5 (@WSU), +100, 150/150
--- This Baylor team is MUCH better than people think. They should have beat TCU in the first game, but were getting accustomed to the new offense and left many points on the field.
It wouldn't shock me to see Baylor win this one... WSU doesn't impress me very much... and if Morriss has worked the offensive kinks out in practice, the Bears will put up some points. I like Bell, and they have depth at receiver.
Oregon -4.5 (Okl.), -105, 105/100
--- Oregon gets a chance for revenge. I dont play that angle often, but I think here it is justifiable. The Sooners just defeated this team in a bowl game 8 and a half months ago... in a very tight game that could have gone either way.
I think Oregon jumps out to a lead in this one and keeps their foot on the pedal... they arent going to let the Sooners have a chance to put them away at the end.
I wouldnt be surprised if the Ducks win this one by a couple TD's. There is no secret as to how to stop the Sooners... and the Ducks are coached as well as any team. They have the QB play to go along with Stewart.
KU ML +155 (@Tol.), 50/77.50
--- My confidence has grown on this play... and the thing is, I never thought the line would come into play... the winner is going to cover here... so I will take a very generous +155 for half a unit to add to my other play.
Reasons for the increase in confidence:
+ Toledo is a small public pick (55/45 last time I checked) and yet the line has gone down by 2 full points since it opened... definately a good sign.
+ Talib is will almost assuredly return. If I find out he is out, I will sell off all of my action. But the players are speaking to the media like he is already back, even though Mangino wont confim it.
+ The local media keeps hounding Mangino about winning on the road. He will want to shut them up, and the team has heard about this all week (well... all spring and summer too). They know their struggles, and they are gonna claw for this one.
+ Two cappers who I respect on this board are on this one as well.
Anyhow, I would almost advise any KU betters to just take the money line... on Pinny right now, KU at +3.5 is at +100, wheras the ML is +155. The odds of KU losing by 3 points, in my opinion, is VERY small. Not a big enough chance to give an additional 55 points of vig to the book. I think a better play would be to wager less to win more on the ML. Or maybe spread... half on each. Just something to think about.
GL guys.
Anyhow, wanted to finish out my Big 12 picks for this week.
ISU +14 (@Iowa), -110, 55/50
--- Iowa St. hasn't played well yet this season... but they have always struck me as a team that played up or down to their competition. They played well enough to win both games... and I dont put a ton of stock in the UNLV game... I think they have a very underrated team.
This is a fierce rivalry game, and I think ISU will keep it within single digits.
Baylor +12.5 (@WSU), +100, 150/150
--- This Baylor team is MUCH better than people think. They should have beat TCU in the first game, but were getting accustomed to the new offense and left many points on the field.
It wouldn't shock me to see Baylor win this one... WSU doesn't impress me very much... and if Morriss has worked the offensive kinks out in practice, the Bears will put up some points. I like Bell, and they have depth at receiver.
Oregon -4.5 (Okl.), -105, 105/100
--- Oregon gets a chance for revenge. I dont play that angle often, but I think here it is justifiable. The Sooners just defeated this team in a bowl game 8 and a half months ago... in a very tight game that could have gone either way.
I think Oregon jumps out to a lead in this one and keeps their foot on the pedal... they arent going to let the Sooners have a chance to put them away at the end.
I wouldnt be surprised if the Ducks win this one by a couple TD's. There is no secret as to how to stop the Sooners... and the Ducks are coached as well as any team. They have the QB play to go along with Stewart.
KU ML +155 (@Tol.), 50/77.50
--- My confidence has grown on this play... and the thing is, I never thought the line would come into play... the winner is going to cover here... so I will take a very generous +155 for half a unit to add to my other play.
Reasons for the increase in confidence:
+ Toledo is a small public pick (55/45 last time I checked) and yet the line has gone down by 2 full points since it opened... definately a good sign.
+ Talib is will almost assuredly return. If I find out he is out, I will sell off all of my action. But the players are speaking to the media like he is already back, even though Mangino wont confim it.
+ The local media keeps hounding Mangino about winning on the road. He will want to shut them up, and the team has heard about this all week (well... all spring and summer too). They know their struggles, and they are gonna claw for this one.
+ Two cappers who I respect on this board are on this one as well.
Anyhow, I would almost advise any KU betters to just take the money line... on Pinny right now, KU at +3.5 is at +100, wheras the ML is +155. The odds of KU losing by 3 points, in my opinion, is VERY small. Not a big enough chance to give an additional 55 points of vig to the book. I think a better play would be to wager less to win more on the ML. Or maybe spread... half on each. Just something to think about.
GL guys.
jayhawk, thanks for the writeups. Agree with your dog picks, ku, baylor and marshall, should cash 2 of 3. I love the over in the Org/OU game. Already on it at over 50. The winner of this game should score in the 30's with the losser getting at least 23 24 points. gl turk
