I have to do this report a day earlier than usual as I am busy tomorrow. I think this has some real value, but I don't know how it will be affected by checking it early. Read all the way thru if you have the time. The starred games are really worth noting I think.
Top Category 1 (Public) plays at Big Guy as of Friday Night @ 8:15pm. Going opposite these picks is usually profitable.
Top Sides:
Houston +9....75%
New Orleans -1?....71% ***** (line opened at -2?)
Green Bay -7....67% ***** (line opened at -7?)
Miami -4?....60% ***** (line opened at -5)
Top Totals:
San Diego Over 45?....89% (!)
Washington Over 48....74%
Denver Over 49?....71% ***** (line opened at 50 and briefly hit 51)
Tampa Bay Under 37....70%
Seattle Over 44?....69%
Buffalo Over 47....65%
Jacksonville Under 39....61%
Not as many games as last week where a side or total is over 60%.
Ok, I've been posting this for a couple weeks and gotten almost no response to it, but I think I am onto something here with the starred games. Now it's not unusual for more of these public picks to be losers than winners. But I think opposite side of the picks with stars may be stronger than average.
The starred games are games where the majority of the public is on one side, and yet the line is moving to encourage MORE money on the side the public is already on. IE. New Orleans opened at -2?. 71% of the people (in this sample) like the Saints, yet the line has gone DOWN. Why? To get even more people on New Orleans?? It should be going UP to get some money back on the 49ers.
This tells me one of two things is happening here. Either: 1) The sharps/syndicates are pouring in huge amounts of money on the other side. If this is the case, the books need more public money to balance their books, so they are making the line more attractive to them. They (the books) don't have a strong opinion on the game, and don't care if the public wins because the dollar amounts the sharps have put on the opposite side is so large that it outweighs what the public as a whole will put on it. Or, 2) The books DO have an opinion on the game, see the public is attracted to what they feel is the wrong side, and they are trying to draw in even more money on the "wrong" side. If this is the case, they are willing to risk getting uneven action on a game, feeling that when they have an opinion on a game their opinion will be correct more often than the public's opinion is (and I am sure it will be, most of the time!).
I can't figure out which of these reasons is the case in these games however. Regardless, I think this method is showing us some strong picks we should at least be considering. Last week the opposite side of the starred games went 3-1. The week before they went 1-0. I'm going to continue to monitor this, because I think interpreting what the line movement tells you can be an effective way to pick winners.
Interested in your opinions.
Top Category 1 (Public) plays at Big Guy as of Friday Night @ 8:15pm. Going opposite these picks is usually profitable.
Top Sides:
Houston +9....75%
New Orleans -1?....71% ***** (line opened at -2?)
Green Bay -7....67% ***** (line opened at -7?)
Miami -4?....60% ***** (line opened at -5)
Top Totals:
San Diego Over 45?....89% (!)
Washington Over 48....74%
Denver Over 49?....71% ***** (line opened at 50 and briefly hit 51)
Tampa Bay Under 37....70%
Seattle Over 44?....69%
Buffalo Over 47....65%
Jacksonville Under 39....61%
Not as many games as last week where a side or total is over 60%.
Ok, I've been posting this for a couple weeks and gotten almost no response to it, but I think I am onto something here with the starred games. Now it's not unusual for more of these public picks to be losers than winners. But I think opposite side of the picks with stars may be stronger than average.
The starred games are games where the majority of the public is on one side, and yet the line is moving to encourage MORE money on the side the public is already on. IE. New Orleans opened at -2?. 71% of the people (in this sample) like the Saints, yet the line has gone DOWN. Why? To get even more people on New Orleans?? It should be going UP to get some money back on the 49ers.
This tells me one of two things is happening here. Either: 1) The sharps/syndicates are pouring in huge amounts of money on the other side. If this is the case, the books need more public money to balance their books, so they are making the line more attractive to them. They (the books) don't have a strong opinion on the game, and don't care if the public wins because the dollar amounts the sharps have put on the opposite side is so large that it outweighs what the public as a whole will put on it. Or, 2) The books DO have an opinion on the game, see the public is attracted to what they feel is the wrong side, and they are trying to draw in even more money on the "wrong" side. If this is the case, they are willing to risk getting uneven action on a game, feeling that when they have an opinion on a game their opinion will be correct more often than the public's opinion is (and I am sure it will be, most of the time!).
I can't figure out which of these reasons is the case in these games however. Regardless, I think this method is showing us some strong picks we should at least be considering. Last week the opposite side of the starred games went 3-1. The week before they went 1-0. I'm going to continue to monitor this, because I think interpreting what the line movement tells you can be an effective way to pick winners.
Interested in your opinions.
