Big Pac-10 tilt for 18th

[pt1gard]

OK, im in semi-reirement but this one looks pretty damn good ... I think I ran aground reading too many posts in previous weeks and sometimes its confusing; LW i made my bets on sunday nite in college and pro and had great week and didnt do any research during week or get persuaded so I'm going with a big gut/tech instinct this week

we have one game Im pretty familiar with both teams ...

CAL @ UCLA

Im not going to make it too complicated ....

UCLA played UW and ZONA last 2 weeks I watched every snap, I am not impressed in least ... Zona missed 3 fgs, had a shovel pass INT for TD from 50, outrushed bruins by wide margin and shoulda scored on long scamper by QB late which woulda won it SU ... Vs UW they get crap Tds and UW sux (i.e. cant even stand up at home vs NEV) so now UCLA is chic team ... the same squad that scored 6 at home vs Illini (cal was killing Illini in champagne and let wild series of events make it close at very end), and couldnt cover vs SD st, and gave up 194 returns at OU w/o Dante Hall involved ...

I have bet Cal every game this year, and am 4-3 ats ... I like this club a ton and their coach tedford esp ... Cal played 7 straight weeks starting in august and had a much needed BYE LW after Beavs came in and pounded them following big USC OT W ... QB Rogers was 9/34 vs beavs and they were never in it ... This helps Bruin matchup IMO spread wise... LY after Cal bye week they went into Tempe when Devils were coming off loss at WSU (but devils had won 3 straight b4 that) and with ASU fully focused, Cal throttled them 55-38 ...

Gimme Tedford with week to prepare and I like their chances ...

I was pleasantly surprised line came out at Cal +4 ML +155

Also teased and parlayed to Kansas 19.5 vs Baylor for smaller amount (cal +10.5 to KS -13) ... kansas is for real offensively, shoulda beat COL, missed XP and chippie FG late ... anyhow, aggies tossed up 73 on Bears, I dont see Kansas in good mood this week and letting a possible Bowl slip thru fingers for first time since 1995 ...

gl to all
gregg


ps caveat, pleez pleez, dont ever bet more than U can afford to lose, yes I like Cal but lets be realistic, anything can happen and odds at best are prob 67% ... veterans here dont need me saying this but with onslaught of lock wannabes on this board Id hate for any newkid coming on here thinking anyone is friggin Jack Price selling a mink coat outta a car trunk for song

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Well said Greg about capping!

I like the play. You are so right about UCLA, how Arizona did not win is beyond me. They had it first and goal on the 3 and blew it after that big run from QB Heavner. GL

HORNS

 

[taoist]

Re: Big Pac-10 tilt for 18th

ps caveat, pleez pleez, dont ever bet more than U can afford to lose, yes I like Cal but lets be realistic, anything can happen and odds at best are prob 67% ... veterans here dont need me saying this but with onslaught of lock wannabes on this board Id hate for any newkid coming on here thinking anyone is friggin Jack Price selling a mink coat outta a car trunk for song

...excellent advice, gregg.


...what I don't understand is why you don't constantly refer to yourself in the third person. :shrug:





edit: ...by the way, good luck this week, buddy.

 

[gardenweasel]

his wife calls him

his wife calls him

"THE GREGG"........of course he`s married to ivanna trump.....

 

[g-hawg]

Great advice, and love the Cal pick, GL.

 

[ajoytoy]

toy

 

[bej0101]

 

[bgold13]

agree 100 percent with cal

 

[Scott4USC]

Some things to remember before betting this game.

* UCLA has the better defense

* Its @ UCLA

* UCLA had let down and was not up for the Arizona game but will be up playing CAL (semi rivalry game).

* UCLA offense is still learning west coast offense so they are better now then earlier in the year. Throw out stats.

Lastly i am not impressed at all with the CAL defense. USC played its worst game of the year against CAL @ CAL (and CAL played almost perfect, Tedford even said that) and the game went into 3 OT's.

I think this game could go either way but I give UCLA the edge. I think UCLA will be able to run and pass against the CAL defense. All in all, i am not betting this game.

FIGHT ON!!!!

 

[pt1gard]

hehe scott

hehe scott

I knew youd go other way, U are still bitter Cal beat your Boys off a bye .. well so am I, we have that pac-10 bet with trojans that better win, dammit, or I'm holding you responsibe for USC's OT loss in Berekley ... U have been high on ucla all year, im waiting to see a decent game out of them, beating the UW proved absolutely nothing to me, in fact NEV beat them even worse IMO at Montlake) ... maybe Bruins will have game of year, their DC was pissed with all the sloppy tackling & giving Zona 2xs their normal OFF yards, but Cal has better overall team and played much better schedule too, which is always your #1 criteria ... anyhow, hope U get your comp running again

take care
gregg

ps whats your take on usc this week?

 

[pt1gard]

more info

more info

Tedford thinking bowl as Cal enters second half

Bruce Adams, Chronicle Staff Writer Sunday, October 12, 2003

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Coach Jeff Tedford isn't making any predictions, but he's optimistic that his Cal Bears are in a good position to finish the season with a winning record and become bowl eligible.

That sense of well-being comes despite an overall losing record and the team's worst performance of the season, a 35-21 loss to Oregon State on Oct. 4,

a game that marked the midpoint of the Golden Bears' 13-game season.

"I don't know how many games we're going to win,'' Tedford said, "but as long as we play consistent, we play hard and we do our job, then everything else will take care of itself.''

The Bears (3-4, 1-1 Pac-10) need to win four of their remaining six games to finish above .500 and be eligible for their first bowl appearance since December 1996. After this weekend's bye, the Bears resume play Saturday at UCLA.


The Bears have played a testing schedule, facing two teams -- Kansas State and USC -- that were in the Top 10 when Cal played them. The Bears split those games, and also lost to Colorado State and Utah. From here, the remaining schedule doesn't appear quite as daunting -- especially given the promise the Bears showed in their 34-31 triple-overtime upset of the Trojans.

"I think we have played a tough schedule and we've been in every game we've played -- except maybe one (Oregon State),'' Tedford said. "I don't think there's anybody on the rest of our schedule that we can't compete with and have a chance to (beat).''

Tedford said he expects some changes in the second half of the season, with tight end Garrett Cross and linebacker Joe Maningo, both JC transfers, playing more critical roles. Tedford said he also expects defensive lineman Brandon Mebane to make more of a mark.

Maningo is still coming back from a knee injury. Mebane, a true freshman, is still learning.

Cross, Tedford noted, hasn't been utilized enough in the passing game. "We have to find a way to get the ball to Garrett because he's a threat as a tight end as a receiver,'' he said.

Tedford singled out some players -- offensive tackle Mark Wilson, defensive tackle Lorenzo Alexander and rover Donnie McCleskey -- for earning solid marks the first half of the season.

He said much of their contributions comes "behind the scenes.'' The worth of tailback Adimchinobe Echemandu and receiver Geoff McArthur has been more apparent. Heading into the weekend, Echemandu was No. 2 in the Pac-10 in rushing with 660 yards. McArthur led the conference, and the nation, in receiving yards with 695.

As for specific disappointments in the first half of the season, Tedford pointed to the team's turnover margin and red-zone efficiency.

The Bears have a turnover margin of minus-3, meaning they've has lost the ball to turnovers three more times than they've gained it.

"That's not good enough,'' Tedford said.

The Bears finished last season with a turnover margin of plus-18, and that figure often was cited as a primary reason for the team's turnaround 7-5 year.

Inside the 20, the Bears rank ninth in the conference in offensive efficiency. In 24 trips into the red zone this year, the team has collected points 17 times. The Bears have missed three field-goal tries, lost the ball twice on downs, fumbled once and been intercepted once. Last year, Cal ranked No. 3 in the conference in red-zone efficiency.

In general, Tedford said the Bears -- who lost 24 seniors from last season -- have been on a learning curve.

"We are young a little bit and there are going to be mistakes that we can learn from,'' he said. "I just hope ... we don't make the same mistakes again. ''

 

[Scott4USC]

Matt Ware one of the better defensive players for UCLA is listed doubtful for Sat. I personally think he is over-rated but many think he is great player.

I think UCLA is one of the more talented teams in the pac 10. I also am seeing signs of UCLA coming around and think maybe this Sat. they put an impressive showing against Cal @home. Its also homecoming for UCLA so should be a good size crowd.

 

[pt1gard]

hey scott

hey scott

my pal did tell me he heard ware was out last night too ... I didnt know about homecoming, thanx for heads up, wasnt in either mag i use ... that wont help my cause but I still like Cal off a bye, it wont be easy and if Bruins get the crap TDs they got last couple weeks Im sure I'll lose but tedford said they are tryign to keep TOs down etc ... we'll see

gl, gregg

 

[bgold13]

matt ware is not overrated at all... and will be a major blow to ucla if he is not going.. consider there alternative!

pt- any thought on orest washington?

 

[Scott4USC]

Matt Ware is over-rated. He looks like a physical specimen but is just average/good player. People make him out to be a "great" player that I do not think he is. The guy clearly is afraid to hit somebody and gets hurt a lot. Maybe he changed somewhat this year (cuz i hve not watched too many UCLA games) but that is my opinion of him.

 

[JEFF]

Cal ML seems like the call here. Love Tedford, one of the best offensive minds in the game. GL Gregg.

 

[pt1gard]

BG

BG

on uw/beavs

I cant stand the UW and have bet against them a few times this year, but heres a line that doesnt favor a bet too much, like i posted elsewhere, I am absolutely kicking myself for not giving -2 a couple weeks ago; I love betting futures lines unlike most here and it has saved my bacon the last couple years ... that said, I think Beavs could win by 21 and will rub it in if possible, IMO LY the UW lucked out beating beavs with b2b INT TD in seattle ...

FWIW, the UWs OL is in shambles, no less than 3 or 4 projected starters from this summer have vanished ... NEV had their way at pickect, knocking him on his ass all day ... I teased Beav game to 3 to WSU -2 first chance i got sunday nite ...

as for 10.5, the current line, I could see UW playing tuff i suppose (best case scenario, them covering big line) but with Beavs week off, following nice win at CAL, lotta marbles out there, they should have much more motivation, I dont see the UW even bowling this year--the are soft as margerine on an August sidewalk

gl, gregg

 

[bgold13]

washington cant run or protect or really stop the run or garner a pass rush... i am liking osu more and more but will stay away... but i think osu has a good as chance if not better chance than usc for the rose

 

[pt1gard]

either tedford is worried or sandbagging or both

either tedford is worried or sandbagging or both

after reading this, coach inkspeak, almost sounds like tedford is implying Cal might not risk too much and the under good play, esp. with TOs being a minor prob ... anyway, heres some more info ...


UCLA's secondary is Cal's primary concern

Bruce Adams, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 15, 2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCLA coach Karl Dorrell and Cal coach Jeff Tedford agree on where the Bruins' strength lies -- defense.

"There's no doubt we've fed off of what they've been doing for us this season to date,'' Dorrell said. "Obviously we're trying to ride the experience and leadership on that side of the ball.''

Tedford was succinct. "Their defense is tremendous,'' he said.

Cal (3-4, 1-1 Pac-10) plays UCLA 4-2, 2-0) on Saturday at the Rose Bowl and a key will be in how the Golden Bears' offense -- which turned tepid in a 35-21 loss to Oregon State on Oct. 4 -- deals with a defense that is fourth in the Pac-10, allowing 331.5 yards a game.

Yards allowed don't tell the whole story. The Bruins are opportunistic, often taking advantage of turnovers.

In last week's 24-21 win at Arizona, the Bruins came back from an 11- point halftime deficit and prevailed largely on the strength of big plays on defense -- most notably four interceptions.

Tedford -- who with Cal's bye week has had an extra week to look at UCLA game films -- said it's especially hard to prepare for the Bruins because they can mount a solid three-man rush while dropping back eight players to defend the passing game.

"They get a lot of their interceptions from their linebackers who are dropping out in coverage,'' Tedford said. "We can't force the ball.''

UCLA is third in the Pac-10 with a turnover margin of plus-5, compared with Cal's minus-3. The Bruins have done it mostly in the secondary, intercepting 14 passes in the last five games, including seven in the last two.

It will be the second game in a row for the Bears against a stingy pass defense, after throwing for just 52 yards in the loss to Oregon State.

Tedford said the two defenses were very distinct, with the Beavers bumping receivers near the line and playing tight man-to-man coverage while the Bruins relied on zone coverage.

"You really have nowhere to go with the football,'' he said.

The defense, which has six senior starters, is led by tackle Rodney Leisle and cornerback Matt Ware.

Ware, whom Tedford called "one of the best players in the league,'' might not play. Dorrell said Ware had a tender ankle and was questionable for the game.

Leisle, meanwhile, is healthy after battling back from a broken foot last year.

"All that hard work is starting to pay off for him,'' Dorrell said.

As effective as the Bruins are against the pass (ranking third in the conference in pass-defense efficiency), Tedford said the eight-man drop didn't necessarily open up the run game.

"They do it on situations where they don't feel you're going to run,'' he said. "If you get into a guessing game with them, they get you.''

Tedford said with the Bruins' multiple looks, it was critical for the Bears to stay patient on offense. "We have to take what they give us and not force things,'' he said.

It's a message his players apparently are taking to heart.

"All you can do is use your vision, be patient and follow your reads,'' running back Adimchinobe Echemandu said.

"I've got to stay focused and go through my progression -- trust the line and trust my reads,'' quarterback Aaron Rodgers said.

Briefly: Cal freshman cornerback Brandon Sanders will undergo shoulder surgery and is out for the year. ... UCLA freshman Maurice Drew, a graduate of De La Salle, is averaging 26.9 yards per kickoff return. He would rank No. 2 in the conference but, with 11 returns in six games, is one return short of cracking the Pac-10 stats.

 

[pt1gard]

QB Rodgers

QB Rodgers

Rodgers' attitude pleases Tedford

Bruce Adams, Chronicle Staff Writer Wednesday, October 8, 2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cal coach Jeff Tedford says quarterback Aaron Rodgers showed signs of greatness in his dismal performance in Saturday's 35-21 loss to Oregon State.

It certainly wasn't in his numbers -- he completed just nine passes in 34 attempts for 52 yards with one interception and no touchdowns. Tedford liked something else he saw in the sophomore -- his frustration.

"The guys who are great quarterbacks have tremendous pride,'' Tedford said. "The key is what happens after that. How do you bounce back from tough times?''

Tedford thinks Rodgers will be just fine. His next start comes Oct. 18 at UCLA after the Bears' bye week.

"He's a very young guy,'' Tedford said. "Each game is a learning experience. ... All quarterbacks go through it.''

Tedford says Rodgers needs to find "a comfort level'' with Cal's offense, with the speed of the game and with his presence in the pocket.

Other than that, Tedford said Rodgers' mechanics are fine for now. "He's got a lot of talent,'' Tedford said.

Rodgers transferred to Cal this year from Butte College. He began theseason backing up Reggie Robertson and has started the last three games.

"I'm sure Aaron hasn't been through a day like the other day,'' Tedford said, taking note of Rodgers' comments after the game when he said he was embarrassed.

"That's a reflection of frustration from a guy who's just had the worst game of his career. He's a perfectionist. He takes great pride in being successful.''

Tedford said there was plenty of blame to go around for Saturday's loss - - including a game plan that didn't put his players in the best position to succeed, receivers who couldn't shake defenders and linemen who let the Oregon State front create a strong push on the pocket. As a result, Rodgers was hurried and under pressure most of the day.

Tedford did find one play that he said illustrated Rodgers' poise under pressure -- a shovel pass to Adimchinobe Echemandu that was good for 10 yards in the Bears' touchdown drive late in the first half.

The play was designed to draw in the defensive end on Rodgers, who then would pitch the ball to tailback Echemandu as he broke downfield. The end stayed with Echemandu, Tedford said. So Rodgers scrambled and drew in the end for the tackle -- freeing Echemandu for the pitch.

"There's no panic in him,'' Tedford said. "I think it all has to do with his comfort level.''

Tedford also was pleased with Rodgers' durability. "I have no doubt he's a tough guy,'' he said. "When he runs, he runs aggressively.''

Now, Tedford said, the immediate challenge for Rodgers is to keepSaturday's performance in perspective.

"He has to treat it as temporary and move forward,'' he said, saying he hoped Rodgers would emerge with "a burning desire to make sure we don't have that kind of game again.''