I think this game is a very good one to bet on :
Playing
Philadelphia / Mets Over 8.5 @ -105
I think this line is gonna change a bit.
Here is my reasoning :
1. Both teams are swingin the bat well. I find that in day games
in a place like New York where there is humidity and moisture the pitcher MAY find it hard to control the ball. This can lead to more hits and more runs. I have not exact numbers to this theory but worked today [could be a factor but I think the Philly Bull Pen SUX so much that they are just plain horrible in any kind of weather .. rare talent].
2. Philly Bull pen plainly SUX .. as I observed in one of the articles Nick Douglas has written about betting on baseball he had said that "your objectives are the same as the team's objectives"
well .. as far as I can see the objective of Phill's closers is to make the total go OVER .. so since we share the same objective it satisfies the criteria of good intentions ..
3. Philly in july games : 7-1 in favor of the Over.
Philly in road games : 26 - 16 in favor of the Over.
On the road when total is betn 8 and 8.5 : 14-6 in favor of Over
Vs. Right handed pitcher : 40 - 31 in favor of the Over.
When playing on Sunday Over is 7-7
4. NY Mets do lean towards the Under but in the present series i see the Philly bull pen makin life easy for the Mets bats. No one wanna lose at home on Sunday so I am sure the bats will hit tomorrow in front of home crowd to make up for 2 losses in a row.
5. Mets are 6-1 favoring the Over when they are home favs
and line is -150 to -175
In July games this year Mets are 7-2 favoring the Over.
When playin on Sunday Over is 7-6
6. Philly average 4.5 runs a game.
On the road they average 4.7 runs a game.
Against right handed pitcher they average 4.8 runs a game.
Mets average 4.3 runs a game.
Mets average 4 runs at home.
Mets average 4.5 runs against right handed pitcher.
Coming to both pitchers :
Duckworth does have a low ERA against the Mets .. but Mets bats have started to hit again and I think they will get around 5 runs or so. In 3 starts against the Mets the OVer is 2-1
His Overall ERA is 4.64 with a Whip of 1.404. But on the ROAD his ERA increases to 7.36 with a Whip of 1.879.
He is 6-1 in favor of the Over on the road.
Astacio is 1 - 5 Over / Under at home. But against Philly he has an ERA of 4.68 and a Whip of 1.606
The Over is 5-2 in seven starts .
Astacio as I have said before is 1-5 Over / Under at home this season. Philly's are hittin the ball well and Astacio does not fare well against Philly.
and now the final piece of tomorrow's puzzle :
The Ump Mark Wegner is 12-8 favoring the Over.
Averages around 10.8 runs a game and 6.9 walks a game.
This guy is 2-3 Over/Under last 5 games. But with all the other factors I think thi game has a very good chance of going Over 8.5 runs.
If ya lookin for a pattern his last 5 games have gone :
under - over - under - over - under - ??? [logically it shud be Over]
In his last 5 games the 3 unders are with following :
July 7 : Pittsburg Vs Houston : Both teams have trouble scorin
June 28 : Montreal Vs Toronto : Armas and Halladay pitching. This game cannot go Over whichever Ump is there.
June 20 : Boston Vs San Diego
Martinez Pitchin .. ... enuf said
In 9 games he has been home plate umpire and both pitchers were right handed the Over is 7-2
[one of the Unders was the one in which Hallady was pitchin]
In 9 games he has been home plate Ump in National League games the Over is 7-2
The Over is 1-0 when he was Ump for NL West game.
Taking the Over 8.5 for a substantial amount for myself.
Am not making any other plays at least for now. I have noticed I am making just too many plays for my comfort in last 2 days. So have decided to be very selective and pick my plays very very carefully.
Final Score :
Philadelphia 8 Mets 7
Good luck to all
Cheers !!!
Spock
Playing
Philadelphia / Mets Over 8.5 @ -105
I think this line is gonna change a bit.
Here is my reasoning :
1. Both teams are swingin the bat well. I find that in day games
in a place like New York where there is humidity and moisture the pitcher MAY find it hard to control the ball. This can lead to more hits and more runs. I have not exact numbers to this theory but worked today [could be a factor but I think the Philly Bull Pen SUX so much that they are just plain horrible in any kind of weather .. rare talent].
2. Philly Bull pen plainly SUX .. as I observed in one of the articles Nick Douglas has written about betting on baseball he had said that "your objectives are the same as the team's objectives"
well .. as far as I can see the objective of Phill's closers is to make the total go OVER .. so since we share the same objective it satisfies the criteria of good intentions ..
3. Philly in july games : 7-1 in favor of the Over.
Philly in road games : 26 - 16 in favor of the Over.
On the road when total is betn 8 and 8.5 : 14-6 in favor of Over
Vs. Right handed pitcher : 40 - 31 in favor of the Over.
When playing on Sunday Over is 7-7
4. NY Mets do lean towards the Under but in the present series i see the Philly bull pen makin life easy for the Mets bats. No one wanna lose at home on Sunday so I am sure the bats will hit tomorrow in front of home crowd to make up for 2 losses in a row.
5. Mets are 6-1 favoring the Over when they are home favs
and line is -150 to -175
In July games this year Mets are 7-2 favoring the Over.
When playin on Sunday Over is 7-6
6. Philly average 4.5 runs a game.
On the road they average 4.7 runs a game.
Against right handed pitcher they average 4.8 runs a game.
Mets average 4.3 runs a game.
Mets average 4 runs at home.
Mets average 4.5 runs against right handed pitcher.
Coming to both pitchers :
Duckworth does have a low ERA against the Mets .. but Mets bats have started to hit again and I think they will get around 5 runs or so. In 3 starts against the Mets the OVer is 2-1
His Overall ERA is 4.64 with a Whip of 1.404. But on the ROAD his ERA increases to 7.36 with a Whip of 1.879.
He is 6-1 in favor of the Over on the road.
Astacio is 1 - 5 Over / Under at home. But against Philly he has an ERA of 4.68 and a Whip of 1.606
The Over is 5-2 in seven starts .
Astacio as I have said before is 1-5 Over / Under at home this season. Philly's are hittin the ball well and Astacio does not fare well against Philly.
and now the final piece of tomorrow's puzzle :
The Ump Mark Wegner is 12-8 favoring the Over.
Averages around 10.8 runs a game and 6.9 walks a game.
This guy is 2-3 Over/Under last 5 games. But with all the other factors I think thi game has a very good chance of going Over 8.5 runs.
If ya lookin for a pattern his last 5 games have gone :
under - over - under - over - under - ??? [logically it shud be Over]
In his last 5 games the 3 unders are with following :
July 7 : Pittsburg Vs Houston : Both teams have trouble scorin
June 28 : Montreal Vs Toronto : Armas and Halladay pitching. This game cannot go Over whichever Ump is there.
June 20 : Boston Vs San Diego
Martinez Pitchin .. ... enuf said
In 9 games he has been home plate umpire and both pitchers were right handed the Over is 7-2
[one of the Unders was the one in which Hallady was pitchin]
In 9 games he has been home plate Ump in National League games the Over is 7-2
The Over is 1-0 when he was Ump for NL West game.
Taking the Over 8.5 for a substantial amount for myself.
Am not making any other plays at least for now. I have noticed I am making just too many plays for my comfort in last 2 days. So have decided to be very selective and pick my plays very very carefully.
Final Score :
Philadelphia 8 Mets 7
Good luck to all
Cheers !!!
Spock
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