In my opinion this is a play to stay away from. Very excited about the game from a fans point of view, definatly not from a bettors point of view.
Not sure Oregon is all they are advertised to be. I think 2 years ago they were far superior and even last year they were a better team - certainly on D and with a better RB, absolute stud WR. They have crushed 4 teams that are really having big problems in their own ways leading into this game and that has inflated their stats and ranking. This team is improved from the team who was held without a 1st down until the 2nd half vs Boise and barely got by Purdue at home at the begining of the season, but they still have a QB who is not an accurate passer and a questionable D. For SC, it will come down to wheather or not SC turns the ball over. They will not have a problem stopping Oregon from running and they will force a team that is not that strong in the air to beat them thru the air. It seems there's this misconception about SC and what types of QB's they struggle against. Its not been a problem for them shutting down spread O/rushing QB's in the past few years. If you look at how QB's like Locker, Prior, Dixon, Misoli? have done on the ground vs SC's D (Locker and Dixon's teams both beat SC, but look at their stats), its been down right brutal. But, they've had problems with accurate, pocket passers who take what SC's D gives them - Clausen (65%, 16-2, 161 Rtg to date) and Canfield (68% 11-4, 141 Rtg)fall into those catagories. That then opens up the running game. The other factor is that SC struggles when they arent under pressure. They lose vs teams that they are expected to walk over. Last week, was a big time sandwich game for SC. ND and Ore St lite up the SC D after SC was up big. OSU was down 21-9 at half and 42-23 early in the 4th. They dont seem to get motivated in situations like that and lose focus focus, letting teams back in when they get up a few. They will be focused here.
However, the big negative for SC has been TO margin. Its -3 this year. During Carroll's 1st 5-6 years, they were amongest the nation's leaders in TO margin year after year. But recently, its made them vulnerable. It killed them 2 years ago at Oregon and cost them the game. In the wet turf, on the road in a loud stadium with a freshman QB and a RB with a propensity to drop the ball, it could spell doom on Sat. It could be a long night. If they hold onto it, they will stiffle Ore's run game and make life miserable for Oregon.
That, to me, makes this game a complete coin flip and 3 pts is about right.