Billy Blastoffs Picks 1/30

Billy Blastoff

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CBB record 37-30-4 +$515

Picks for 1/30 are:

Detroit +2 line should be +5 1/2

System play would also have been Wisc-Milw but q numbers where questionable
 

Billy Blastoff

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Should be interesting to see what gmans2 and speedster1 think of this selection . I will still bet the game but are interested what both of these capers say as they follow the Horizon league closely.
 

gman2

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detroit can beat anybody in the conference on a given night. and imo, theyre the only team that stands a legit chance of knocking milwaukee out of the tournament in march. i will always give watson's guys a look as an underdog. one huge edge that detroit has is defense -- green bay plays defense like its a foreign concept, whereas detroit wins games on that end of the floor. having said that, detroit is not immune to clunker. they have the ability to look terrible on some nights. i agree with the play itself, but not because "the line should be 5.5". the line looks right. its an even game with uwgb having a basket edge for the home court. but i would trust detroit with my money far before id trust uwgb.

as for milwaukee, they totally dominated loyola in the first meeting but pissed away the lead and let the final score become way closer than it should have been. milwaukee is 7-8 points better than every team in this league. what scares me is this line reeks. loyola has some scorers, but milwaukee should be at least a 4 point favorite against every team on the road this year in the horizon.
 

Lee

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When I saw the UWM line, I loved it then wondered why is it so very low!! Totally agree w/ GMAN! Very fishy.
 

IE

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not sure what of out whack ratings you use like users have questioned in past, but # is right there up with any linesmakers' numbers coming out/beta off +/-1.0...for a tough game like this.

1/28/2006 A LOYOLA-CHICAGO (C) 81.5 63-68 +5 131.5 78.5 L P U 25-58 10-12 3-10 24-61 14-16 6-16
1/21/2006 H ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (C) 76.5 76-65 -5.5 130 78.0 W W O 31-54 9-10 5-11 24-49 13-18 4-13
1/18/2006 H WISCONSIN-MILW (C) 88.0 71-72 +5.5 126 78.0 L W O 25-52 16-25 5-12 23-57 22-32 4-16
1/14/2006 A BUTLER (C) 88.0 52-64 +13 117 78.0 L W U 22-59 3-5 5-15 20-44 16-20 8-20
1/12/2006 A CLEVELAND STATE (C) 71.5 53-59* -3.5 126.5 79.0 L L U 22-51 5-13 4-13 18-53 18-26 5-16
1/7/2006 H YOUNGSTOWN STATE (C) 78.0 68-63 -7 129.5 79.0 W L O 27-54 9-13 5-13 22-53 8-10 11-24
1/5/2006 H LOYOLA-CHICAGO (C) 81.5 73-67 -2.5 127 79.0 W W O 25-46 18-22 5-9 26-60 11-15 4-13
1/2/2006 H WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (C) 75.5 60-57* -9.5 126 79.5 W L U 22-62 13-22 3-18 22-58 5-8 8-22
12/31/2005 A SOUTH CAROLINA 91.0 35-65 +12.5 120.5 81.5 L L U 13-48 5-6 4-16 25-53 11-16 4-10

12/24/2005 A LOUISVILLE 92.5 48-56 +16 135 80.0 L W U 19-44 5-9 5-13 17-45 16-22 6-21
12/22/2005 A OHIO U. 86.5 55-56 +11 132.5 78.5 L W U 23-54 1-4 8-21 19-42 11-15 7-17
12/19/2005 H CHICAGO STATE 73.0 68-65 79.5 W 22-46 22-27 2-10 20-53 23-31 2-14
12/17/2005 H CANISIUS 72.0 69-68 -11 129.5 81.0 W L O 24-46 13-15 8-19 26-48 9-13 7-15
12/10/2005 A MISSOURI ST 95.0 71-85 +15.5 140 80.5 L W O 24-66 17-22 6-14 27-61 22-27 9-20
12/7/2005 A WRIGHT STATE (C) 77.5 58-69 +1 121 81.5 L L O 21-52 11-17 5-12 24-49 15-22 6-16
12/3/2005 H WESTERN MICHIGAN 84.5 77-74* -5 125.5 81.5 W L O 28-58 17-24 4-5 28-60 17-24 1-11
11/29/2005 A EASTERN MICHIGAN 74.5 64-60 -3.5 128 81.5 W W U 26-55 9-17 3-9 22-57 9-16 7-18
11/26/2005 N BUFFALO 83.5 60-66 -3 137 81.5 L L U 23-44 13-20 1-8 21-53 15-21 9-24
11/25/2005 A SHAWNEE ST 35.0 56-51 81.5 W 19-48 11-15 7-15 18-46 9-10 6-10

11/22/2005 A OKLAHOMA STATE 91.0 56-90 +11.5 131.5 83.5 L L O 19-45 16-26 2-8 32-53 19-31 7-10
11/20/2005 A DRAKE 82.0 61-69 +1 126 84.0 L L O 26-61 5-10 4-13 25-51 19-28 0-4
11/18/2005 H ROCHESTER COLLEGE 35.0 80-61 84.0 W 30-50 16-25 4-14 15-37 26-33 5-16

WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY Game Log...
Date L Opponent O P/R Score Line Total P/R S/U ATS O/U FG FT 3pt FG FT 3pt
1/28/2006 A ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (C) 77.5 68-81 +6.5 140 78.5 L L O 25-64 9-14 9-27 28-58 20-30 5-14
1/26/2006 A LOYOLA-CHICAGO (C) 83.5 72-66 +10 145.5 76.5 W W U 25-51 15-20 7-17 23-63 13-19 7-21
1/21/2006 H CLEVELAND STATE (C) 76.0 63-66 -5 138 77.5 L L U 20-52 21-25 2-15 21-58 15-19 9-23
1/19/2006 H WRIGHT STATE (C) 78.0 57-44 -1 131 76.5 W W U 23-50 4-10 7-13 18-50 5-11 3-17
1/14/2006 H WISCONSIN-MILW (C) 90.0 84-77 +10 140.5 74.5 W W O 28-53 23-28 5-15 27-61 16-24 7-29
1/11/2006 H ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (C) 79.0 90-84* +2.5 136 74.0 W W O 28-59 26-33 8-21 28-57 21-28 7-19
1/5/2006 A YOUNGSTOWN STATE (C) 76.0 70-95 +5 137 76.0 L L O 23-58 18-21 6-20 39-62 10-10 7-17
1/2/2006 A DETROIT (C) 79.5 57-60* +9.5 126 75.5 L W U 22-58 5-8 8-22 22-62 13-22 3-18
12/30/2005 H CAL-IRVINE 80.0 77-65 +2 143.5 74.0 W W U 26-51 15-20 10-22 25-56 8-8 7-20

12/29/2005 H NORTHERN MICHIGAN 35.0 106-58 74.0 W 34-64 28-34 10-17 23-66 4-8 8-33
12/21/2005 H MICHIGAN STATE 95.0 69-98 +14 144 75.5 L L O 30-65 6-12 3-20 36-58 13-16 13-23
12/17/2005 A WISCONSIN-MILW (C) 90.5 60-80 +16.5 136 75.5 L L O 24-49 5-13 7-16 28-53 17-25 7-21
12/14/2005 H EASTERN MICHIGAN 75.5 73-69 -4.5 135.5 75.5 W L O 29-55 10-16 5-19 26-60 9-17 8-26
12/10/2005 H MONTANA STATE 76.0 75-73 -3.5 134 75.5 W L O 29-54 8-13 9-21 26-62 11-22 10-32
12/7/2005 A WISCONSIN 92.0 62-82 +21.5 132.5 75.5 L W O 21-55 14-16 6-19 28-55 18-29 8-16
12/3/2005 A ILLINOIS STATE 82.5 51-59 +8.5 121.5 75.0 L W U 18-62 9-12 6-17 18-42 20-27 3-15
11/29/2005 H NORTH DAKOTA STATE 48.0 60-55 77.0 W 20-57 17-22 3-13 20-44 7-8 8-18
11/21/2005 A CENTRAL MICHIGAN 72.0 62-67 +1.5 137 77.5 L L U 19-49 18-26 6-13 24-52 15-22 4-18
11/15/2005 N MIAMI-FLORIDA 92.5 54-80 +11.5 135 79.0 L L U 16-48 17-23 5-10 30-57 12-17 8-19

11/14/2005 A WASHINGTON 98.0 54-87 +21 151 80.0 L L U 19-53 15-23 1-7 36-65 7-10 8-17
11/13/2005 N N.C.-GREENSBORO 76.0 71-48 -4 135.5 78.0 W W U 28-54 3-10 12-18 15-48 13-20 5-19


detroit has dropped 6 points since start of season which is expected in line with their season and in line and wgb just above neutral...

detroit 8-10 vs spread
wgb 9-10 vs spread

so linesmakers are just slightley off since november....



detroit -9.5 at home in first game of rematch and counting approx varation of home court of 3.9 -4.5 pts....would make the game around a pickem....

maybe the ratings you use factor in to much home court advantage, not sure...


would make this game opening anywhere from -1.0 --2.0 factoring recent play and public sentiment.


pinnacle opened the game at -2.0 and slowly is working up to probably -3.0
(read from bottom up)

Date/Time of Line Visitor Line Home Total

01/30/2006 12:29:33 AM Detroit U 2.5(-105) / -2.5(-105) Wisc Green Bay o128 -105
01/30/2006 12:19:33 AM Detroit U 2.5(-105) / -2.5(-105) Wisc Green Bay o128.5 +104
01/29/2006 10:47:28 PM Detroit U 2(+103) / -2(-113) Wisc Green Bay o128.5 +104
01/29/2006 09:39:28 PM Detroit U 2(-101) / -2(-109) Wisc Green Bay o128.5 +104
01/29/2006 09:15:29 PM Detroit U 2(-105) / -2(-105) Wisc Green Bay o128.5 +104
01/29/2006 06:37:30 PM Detroit U 2(-105) / -2(-105) Wisc Green Bay o128.5 -105

at +5.5 they would get smacked unreal....

don't have an opinion on the game, and wish you the best of luck with it....just not sure line is out of whack...reason for post and also to help you refine your system that you or anyone at madjacks has in progress.

tough game in that league with detroit coming back in 2nd half for push on the road and wgb off 2 big games on the road where they let it hang out...outplaying opponents in 2nd half.
 

Billy Blastoff

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I wish I didnt have to defend all my line numbers

Dunkel has Detroit a 3 point dog
Sagarin has Detroit a 3 1/2 point dog
Dilphin has Detroit a 4 Point Dog
Billy Blastoff has Detroit a 5 point dog
RPI has Detroit a 7 point dog

Need any more info?
 

IE

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you don't have to defend anything Billy, just trying to help.

i see where your coming from using these ratings that are in-season and good luck using those type of rankings.

no other info needed, good luck on your play.
 

jmizeus

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gl billy

i have a friend who does those #'s as well, im not a believer in them
but he said louiville is a big play for him today? he uses sagarins numbers i know of, and when i looked at the game the ratings are 5 points off from the line,like i said i dont believe in these but he does, im surprised you dont have a play on louiville then?

gl
 

Billy Blastoff

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jmizeus said:
gl billy

i have a friend who does those #'s as well, im not a believer in them
but he said louiville is a big play for him today? he uses sagarins numbers i know of, and when i looked at the game the ratings are 5 points off from the line,like i said i dont believe in these but he does, im surprised you dont have a play on louiville then?

gl

Louisville qfactor problems
 
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