Billy Blastoffs Picks 2/28
- Thread starter Billy Blastoff
- Start date
Just went to bet this and line is + 5 . I might wait a little and see if I can get a +6 or more. No matter what you get anything over + 4 is a bonus :mj14:
Hmmmmmmm
Hmmmmmmm
but your system is based on the morning line !!
i believe you stated that in previous threads!!
correct???
Hmmmmmmm
but your system is based on the morning line !!
i believe you stated that in previous threads!!
correct???
blastoff, what do you mean when you say pitt should be +8, your saying the opposite of what you bet. Do you actually mean the line should have been pk ? confused
Blastoff - If I infringed on your post - I apologize.
Blastoff is saying that he capped the game at Pitt +8, but since Vegas line is only +4 (Trying to get you to take the favorite), then the play is Pitt. Vegas is trying to get the public to play on the favorite in this game; therefore the line is lower than what he has capped.
Vegas basically likes Pitt to cover this game, so they set the low line hoping to get the action on the favorite.
Hope that helps
Blastoff is saying that he capped the game at Pitt +8, but since Vegas line is only +4 (Trying to get you to take the favorite), then the play is Pitt. Vegas is trying to get the public to play on the favorite in this game; therefore the line is lower than what he has capped.
Vegas basically likes Pitt to cover this game, so they set the low line hoping to get the action on the favorite.
Hope that helps
Just FYI, BB does not cap these games. He gets what the lines SHOULD be from an undisclosed site (for good reason), and then compares these lines to what they opening line is. If they are off by 3+, then it is a play.
Dopeslayer,
He does use his system based on morning lines, but he is just saying he thinks the line will go to +6 with the way Pitt has played the last couple games and the way BC has played all year and exects the general betting public to drive the line to +6. So, he is waiting to hopefully get a better line for the play he will make, that's all
He does use his system based on morning lines, but he is just saying he thinks the line will go to +6 with the way Pitt has played the last couple games and the way BC has played all year and exects the general betting public to drive the line to +6. So, he is waiting to hopefully get a better line for the play he will make, that's all
nchiappetta said:Dopeslayer,
He does use his system based on morning lines, but he is just saying he thinks the line will go to +6 with the way Pitt has played the last couple games and the way BC has played all year and exects the general betting public to drive the line to +6. So, he is waiting to hopefully get a better line for the play he will make, that's all
Perfectly said. Line has moved to 5 1/2 at a few books, and stayed a 5 at others. Believe Ill take the 5 1/2 and not be gready.
Casey, I'm sorry I don't understand, if he capped at it +8 he has bet a way worse line than he capped. The money is moving towards bc as the line indicates and there not looking for BC money but actually Pitt money. This thread makes very little sense to me, not bashing just wondering
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ThomasJ,
In this instance, the line is indeed moving in the direction of BC, but this is one instance. You will see more often than not that the line will move in the direction that BB's plays are.
Remember, any handicapping/betting system is not 100% no matter how well it works or everyone would be winning..unfortunately, that is not the case!!
Back to the BC/Pitt line, these line moves are not totally out of the ordinary of what we should normally see. Remember, Vegas knows something in which they want people to take BC. They also probably know a lot of people look at the line moves and strictly bet on that. So, their thinking is, "why not move it more in the direction of BC?" in order to get more takers on the Eagles instead of the Pitt Panthers.
Hope this helps.
P.S. BB's system is simple to understand after you think it through because it was one of the most unintuitive logics. Basically, he gets a line at where it SHOULD be. Then the opening line comes out...say Team A SHOULD be favorded by 5 (-5) but instead is at -9. In fact, you should take the LESS advantaged side than what the line should be. Team A would be the choice. (If the line was -2, then Team B would be the choice).
Simple logic would say to take the extra points you THINK you should be getting. But does one really think Vegas makes that big of a mistake(s)?! I don't think so as they have too much $$ at stake. These lines are put out for a reason, and one of those is to mess with bettors heads and make the wrong pick.
In this instance, the line is indeed moving in the direction of BC, but this is one instance. You will see more often than not that the line will move in the direction that BB's plays are.
Remember, any handicapping/betting system is not 100% no matter how well it works or everyone would be winning..unfortunately, that is not the case!!
Back to the BC/Pitt line, these line moves are not totally out of the ordinary of what we should normally see. Remember, Vegas knows something in which they want people to take BC. They also probably know a lot of people look at the line moves and strictly bet on that. So, their thinking is, "why not move it more in the direction of BC?" in order to get more takers on the Eagles instead of the Pitt Panthers.
Hope this helps.
P.S. BB's system is simple to understand after you think it through because it was one of the most unintuitive logics. Basically, he gets a line at where it SHOULD be. Then the opening line comes out...say Team A SHOULD be favorded by 5 (-5) but instead is at -9. In fact, you should take the LESS advantaged side than what the line should be. Team A would be the choice. (If the line was -2, then Team B would be the choice).
Simple logic would say to take the extra points you THINK you should be getting. But does one really think Vegas makes that big of a mistake(s)?! I don't think so as they have too much $$ at stake. These lines are put out for a reason, and one of those is to mess with bettors heads and make the wrong pick.
nchiappetta
Thanks for the explanation, so basically do the opposite of what your system says then. In your ex. take BC at -9 because you capped it at -5 and take Pitt if it had come out -2. That is confusing to say the least, it's kinda a lousy system you bet against, is that what your saying
I mean bb's system above
Thanks for the explanation, so basically do the opposite of what your system says then. In your ex. take BC at -9 because you capped it at -5 and take Pitt if it had come out -2. That is confusing to say the least, it's kinda a lousy system you bet against, is that what your saying
I mean bb's system above
ThomasJ said:
Let me help you out. I found a data source I believe Vegas users. Most games lines come out within a point. The system doesn't select a game it predicts a point spread. when the line is off by 3 or more, that means Vegas tweaked the line.You aren't really betting against anything you are betting with Vegas but you don't get the vig.Vegas isnt in the business of giving away money.
The system has won 12 of 13 weeks. LOUSY or not :moon:
not a lousy system by a long shot ... if you do indeed have the same system that most of vegas prepares its numbers from ... well :clap: to you bb ...
in this instance my number just happens to be bc-8 as well ... making the pitt play even stronger ... both my rating systems had the same number ... and vegas still said no ...
let peter public bring the line up as much as they want ... so much the better ... 5 1/2 still the best i have seen ... lol sofar ...
luck !!!!!
in this instance my number just happens to be bc-8 as well ... making the pitt play even stronger ... both my rating systems had the same number ... and vegas still said no ...
let peter public bring the line up as much as they want ... so much the better ... 5 1/2 still the best i have seen ... lol sofar ...
luck !!!!!
Thank you very much for that I get it now and lousy may have been the wrong word, I was thinking opposite or something like that and thats the word I came out with, still don't know the right word lol.
BB,
I love it..the line is moving once again in line with your pick...Once all the money from the "wiseguys" started coming in on Pitt, the line has finally started to fall. Let's just hope the outcome is as good.
GL to all!
I love it..the line is moving once again in line with your pick...Once all the money from the "wiseguys" started coming in on Pitt, the line has finally started to fall. Let's just hope the outcome is as good.
GL to all!
nchiappetta,
quote..
Once all the money from the "wiseguys" started coming in on Pitt, the line has finally started to fall. Let's just hope the outcome is as good.
end of quote;
question, cause i can't figure it out....
what is public and what is wiseguy?
thanks in advance.
quote..
Once all the money from the "wiseguys" started coming in on Pitt, the line has finally started to fall. Let's just hope the outcome is as good.
end of quote;
question, cause i can't figure it out....
what is public and what is wiseguy?
thanks in advance.
My inclination is that the gen public is the average bettor that doesn't go on anything other than a feeling (no research, etc, aka: first time bettors) as opposed to the books themselves who call huge plays off at times to other books, which in turn cause the lines to move at the last moment. It doesn't always follow this but quite often it does.
Not in this thread, but in maybe another one, what does anyone else think?
Not in this thread, but in maybe another one, what does anyone else think?
