Blunts, Bongs, & Bowls

kcwolf

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CFB: 69-58 +26.28 units

Might as well start with the last game first.

Championship Bowl - Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Thursday, January 7, 2010

TEXAS +5.5 -110 x5

It looks like Alabama will have two jinx'es going against them from the start - getting the Sports Illustrated cover and the Heisman winner this week. Mark Ingram will pick up the trophy as voters feel some obligation to the Crimson and Tide for never having a winner. Ndamukong Suh was the best player, hidden from view by the cornfields of Nebraska.

Enough soap box rhetoric and no need for mounds of information. You can get enough of that to make your head spin over the next 4 weeks.

The important stuff: Oddsmakers were forced to set Alabama as the favorite for a heavily bet game, based on last week's perception. Alabama stomps the defending champions and Texas gets the coyote ugly win over Nebraska. To guarantee balanced action, Alabama opened as a 5 point favorites and it raced to six. A true line would have Texas as the favorite, according to sports consultants. Maybe I should wait for the 6 again, but feel I don't need it. Impressive sharp action moved the line from six to four and a half on Monday. One more thing, Texas won't have to sweat the small stuff, playing in this game in Pasedena previously. Logistics and requests will be old hat for the Longhorn staff.


Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth
December 31, 2009

Air Force +4.5 -110 x5 W

Another sharp play. A rematch of two teams from last New Year's Eve, with Houston winning by 6 as a 3 point favorite. Last year's game was revenge against an earlier season loss to Air Force. This year, Air Force is seeking revenge. Houston won at #5 Oklahoma State early. Second-year coach Kevin Sumlin said "We're a talented enough team to win every game on our schedule". They ended the year with 2 road losses, 10-3. crushing their dreams for the national spotlight. A team hoping to go 13-0 is now playing in a bowl they went to last year with only 8 wins. Are they motivated to be there?
 
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AR182

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hey kc....

air force is on my radar but waiting to see if it goes up....

good luck this bowl season....
 

tulah

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CFB: 69-58 +26.28 units

Might as well start with the last game first.

Championship Bowl - Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Thursday, January 7, 2010

TEXAS +5.5 -110 x5

It looks like Alabama will have two jinx'es going against them from the start - getting the Sports Illustrated cover and the Heisman winner this week. Mark Ingram will pick up the trophy as voters feel some obligation to the Crimson and Tide for never having a winner. Ndamukong Suh was the best player, hidden from view by the cornfields of Nebraska.

Enough soap box rhetoric and no need for mounds of information. You can get enough of that to make your head spin over the next 4 weeks.

The important stuff: Oddsmakers were forced to set Alabama as the favorite for a heavily bet game, based on last week's perception. Alabama stomps the defending champions and Texas gets the coyote ugly win over Nebraska. To guarantee balanced action, Alabama opened as a 5 point favorites and it raced to six. A true line would have Texas as the favorite, according to sports consultants. Maybe I should wait for the 6 again, but feel I don't need it. Impressive sharp action moved the line from six to four and a half on Monday. One more thing, Texas won't have to sweat the small stuff, playing in this game in Pasedena previously. Logistics and requests will be old hat for the Longhorn staff.


Any worrie's about the TX OL Vs ALA DL match up? :shrug:

1st post I've seen with a bcs championship pick
No play yet for me but I lean to Bama:shrug:

GL this Bowl season:toast:
 

kcwolf

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Any worrie's about the TX OL Vs ALA DL match up? :shrug:

1st post I've seen with a bcs championship pick
No play yet for me but I lean to Bama:shrug:

GL this Bowl season:toast:

Yes Tulah, I worry some about the line. Maybe? a a good time to have played Nebraska for adjustments? :shrug: I play mostly on smart money without paying much attention to personnel. In simple terms looking at it, both teams have great defenses and Texas has the better offense.
 

joefrog91

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Love the AF play for the same reasons. I think it may go up to at least +6 though. Waiting.
 

kcwolf

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LAS VEGAS BOWL
Tuesday, December 22

Oregon St. -2.5 -108 x3 L

BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall is saying all the right things. saying they are excited to be going to the Las Vegas Bowl. Maybe Bronco is excited as it will be the first time two ranked teams will play. Mendenhall was also a former player at OSU. It presents some motivation problems though as BYU is heading to this bowl for the 5th straight year. The players were very unhappy last year. BYU is 2-2 in Las Vegas Bowls under Mendenhall, losing to Cal and Arizona and beating Oregon and UCLA. OSU has a five-game bowl win streak, all with Coach Riley at the helm.

National media rank this bowl game in the top-10 matchups, with two top-20 teams. ESPN ranks the Las Vegas Bowl No. 7 of the 34 postseason games. Both teams got there official welcome in Vegas today. OSU beat UNLV earlier this year at the bowl site. I have a number of -7 for OSU. Hope to get more news from the OSU side later. Both HC's have become good friends over the years.
 
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Hornsfan

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Normally I would totally agree with Oregon State in a bowl game, but I worry more about their motivation than BYU. They were oh so close to going to the Rose Bowl. I am concerned that the distraction that is Vegas is more of a problem for the kids from Corvallis than BYU. Maybe that is just stereotyping. Good luck.
 

Grama

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no stereotype for BYU - just facts. Add in that BYU has been to 4 straight Vegas bowls and there are no distractions.
 

kcwolf

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Thanks GOAT, hope you have a Merry Christmas.

Hornsfan & Grama: Your points are very valid and more correct than my original assesment. Thinking more about this game, I need to change my mind about BYU. BYU should be motivated to finally get to play a ranked team. Familiarity to the site, yes more distrations for OSU, but they have already played there this year. I went outside my normal thinking a bit on this one using only handicapping numbers. I worry about how popular they are to the betting world. I like the discussion, keep them coming, and thanks.
 

harlytiger

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KC... good luck on your post....

I SURE HOPE your right on TEXAS... i am in ALABAMA and they think they already won the National Championship..... If AL plays to their potential they will win but again thats why they play....
I believe the Roles are turned...ALabama went into the FL game off a sqeaker win at AU and was motivated as a DOG, Where as FL won dominating FSU and was the favorite that was suspose to beat AL....
Now we have a TExas team that looks like the Ohio st team that won the national championship IT WAS SO UGLY but they won.....they are comming off a aweful looking game against NEB...a huge underdog that noone is giving them the respect to win... ALabama will have the heismond curese and will read their press clippings........Being in ALABAMA i have followed them for years and they always do best as an UNDERDOG...lots of stress being number 1 and favored...we will see...still believe AL wins due to SEC being a dominating confrence and i predict 8-2 straight up in bowl games this year...had FL one of the losses but now KElly is gone...not sure...

MErry Christmas
 

kcwolf

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Agree Harly, I have been reading all the newspapers there. I feel real good about Texas, especially if Mark Ingram wins the Heisman.
 

Dizzayton

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Title game

Title game

I think Texas defense can possibly keep them in the game, but if their offense that concerns me. If they can't run the ball, then they will get beat soundly because a one demensional McCoy to Shipley is just too easy for Bama to shut down...ala Oklahoma and Nebraska. If Nebraska had a lick of offense then Texas would be on the outside looking in. Who has Texas beaten this year anyway?
 

gardenweasel

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i`ve admired bama all year...i think they were underappreciated till the florida game....

they`ve flown a bit under the radar,imo....still,i don`t think for a second that they warrant being a 5.5 point fave over texas...

it`s amazing how public perception is sometimes based on one game or event....the last one...

same thing is happening in boxing in showtime`s super-middleweight tourney...mikkel kessler lost here in the states to andre ward...the consensus was that kessler was the best super-middle in the world...

kessler may have underestimated ward...or maybe it was just a bad style match-up...whatever....now he`s only a -155 fave(at home in denmark)vs an overrated carl froch....

this is a very favorable style match-up for kessler(in denmark)...imo,a gift solely based on his last fight in the states vs a very different type of fighter....

that`s the gardenweasel / long-winded way of saying,i`m with you on texas plus the points...



g.l.
 
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kcwolf

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Thank you gents!

HOLIDAY BOWL
December 30 - San Diego

Nebraska over 40 -105 x4 L

A rematch of 1998 23-20 Arizona victory in the Holiday Bowl. Weather should be good and want to get this number now as it went as low as 39.5. My numbers say mid 40's.

thx Poon for the correction.
 
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Mr. Poon

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A rematch of last years 23-20 arizona victory in the Holiday Bowl. Weather should be good and want to get this number now as it went as low as 39.5. I see a game like last year or a little higher on the point total.

Nothing against the play, but that game was the '98 Holiday bowl.

GL on all your bowl plays man.
 

kcwolf

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Sat. 12/19

Sat. 12/19

UCF +3 -110 x3 L

Rutgers had a disappointing year by their admission. This week they were still taking final exams in Florida and some players were working on 5 hours sleep per day.

UCF has had an extra week to prepare. Although they are 0-3 in bowls, they are excited to get that monkey off their backs. The baseball field will be set up for 28,000 fans with UCF fans grabbing up 20,000 tickets. UCF is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS away from their home field.

gl!
 
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