Most stuff we all know....but worth the read
Bob "The Bear" Cowan's Canadian Perspective on Sports
Some general advice about Wagering on Hockey
Every year about this time I give my general thoughts about wagering on hockey. As we approach the NHL playoffs, the teams become a little more honest in their efforts and it follows that the bettors have a slightly better chance than in the fall.
Although the NHL has not achieved the parity we have seen in the NFL it is even more likely that a team lower in the standings is able to beat a division leader on any given night. With only 6 or 7 goals or often less, being scored in each game and with small pucks being fired at the net at speeds reaching 100 mph, often deflected or hitting goal posts, it follows that luck plays a large part in some games. Of course the better teams get more opportunities to score and conversely provide fewer opportunities to their opponents and the law of averages comes out in their favour in the long run.
There are many theories or actual reasons to take one team against another. I suggest that using a single theory or reason will put a bettor more at risk to the luck of a deflection, a screen that allows a soft goal, or any one of the many things that can happen. Every player that reaches the level of play to be in the NHL has the capability to score when given an opportunity, earned or otherwise. Annually, I point out with the usual exception of the very best and the very worst teams, the rest fall in the 6 wins out of 10 or the 4 wins out of 10 category. That is only 2 wins out of 10 difference between the top teams and the near bottom teams and the rest fall in between. Standings, as in points earned for wins, ties, and overtime wins and overtime losses, play a major roll in the public opinion of a team and naturally, the odds. At this writing, Ottawa leads the overall standings with 39 wins out of 63 games just slightly over 6 wins in 10. Buffalo, in dead last, have won only 3 of 10 but have tied 8 games or 1.3 of 10. The Buffalo Sabres in absolute last place have lost only 30 of 61 games in regulation and 5 more in overtime. Atlanta, tied in last with Buffalo have lost only 55% of their road games are + 260 in Vanvouver. I am not suggesting you bet on Atlanta or Buffalo, but want to point out the heavy odds against the skinnier probability of the favorite winning. The same holds with Minnesota at 1st place Ottawa
There are lots of games and as in other sports, you can bet them all, to keep your interest, but if you are trying to make money, it is wise to bet only those games that you think one team has a better opportunity to win over a team you feel is in a better position to lose. There are many styles of hockey wagering. I personally prefer to use the puck lines only when betting high scoring favorites. That is taking favorites that can cover a 1/2 puck or even 1 1/2 pucks easily. That avoids having to lay the heavy money line. For example if you liked Dallas over Boston on Tuesday night (Feb. 23), you either laid -165 or laid 1/2 puck and - 120. Personally, if I thought Dallas would win, the 1/2 puck makes little difference. Things can always go wrong and if so I wouldn't lose the 165. In a league where most teams are between 4 and 6 wins out of 10, it is tough laying over 150 on a regular basis. I am not suggesting that Boston is the correct bet in this situation because Dallas has been hot at home and Boston only so-so on the road. Nevertheless, the Bruins have lost only half of their road games and that chases me from laying 165 against them.
What do I like then? I like to have several things in my favour or an even shot with the odds in my favour. As a general rule, I prefer underdogs with a chance of getting a nice payout. Over the long run, the games bet should be close in wins and losses and the odds make your profits. When assessing the teams, I look at several things, trying not to make one reason too much greater than another. Several games in a few nights has an effect and strangely when a team returns home from a tough road trip, the first game back is often a disappointment.
Injuries to key players can be very damaging in the long run. One or two games without a star seem to be less of a problem. You cannot avoid the home and away records of teams. Recently the road has had less effect as the rinks now, are more standard but it cannot be disregarded. Who is hot and who is not. Look at how a team has played lately, as in last 5 or last 10 games. Be careful to look past the bare stats and see who and where they played. Obviously a win streak over the deep South East isn't as impressive as one against the strength of the Western Conference including teams like Detroit, Colorado, Dallas, St. Louis and Vancouver.
Conversely, a bad run against the top teams should be taken lighter than a skid against the also-rans. Hot goalies are something to consider especially when using a puck line or the over/under. I don't want to rain on the Toronto Maple Leafs hot record of late but it has been against a mediocre set of opponents. After playing New Jersey January 1st and 2nd they have played mostly teams with losing records and their so called tough games have come against, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington, none of which rank with the top Western teams. Pittsburgh, Florida, Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina and Chicago were patsies. Fortunately March promises more of the same but there are few tests or pitfalls to avoid as a Leaf follower. The games against Detroit in late February, Ottawa, Vancouver and perhaps the fast skating Edmonton Oilers will be a better judge of how Toronto will fare versus the better teams that they will see in the playoffs.
As in the NFL, nobody is as bad or as good as they appear to be, especially for one game. Use the odds and the fact that teams are more balanced than you may think. We will start evaluating the individual teams as the trade deadline comes and goes. Who is going for it this year and who are looking to the future.
Bob "The Bear" Cowan's Canadian Perspective on Sports
Some general advice about Wagering on Hockey
Every year about this time I give my general thoughts about wagering on hockey. As we approach the NHL playoffs, the teams become a little more honest in their efforts and it follows that the bettors have a slightly better chance than in the fall.
Although the NHL has not achieved the parity we have seen in the NFL it is even more likely that a team lower in the standings is able to beat a division leader on any given night. With only 6 or 7 goals or often less, being scored in each game and with small pucks being fired at the net at speeds reaching 100 mph, often deflected or hitting goal posts, it follows that luck plays a large part in some games. Of course the better teams get more opportunities to score and conversely provide fewer opportunities to their opponents and the law of averages comes out in their favour in the long run.
There are many theories or actual reasons to take one team against another. I suggest that using a single theory or reason will put a bettor more at risk to the luck of a deflection, a screen that allows a soft goal, or any one of the many things that can happen. Every player that reaches the level of play to be in the NHL has the capability to score when given an opportunity, earned or otherwise. Annually, I point out with the usual exception of the very best and the very worst teams, the rest fall in the 6 wins out of 10 or the 4 wins out of 10 category. That is only 2 wins out of 10 difference between the top teams and the near bottom teams and the rest fall in between. Standings, as in points earned for wins, ties, and overtime wins and overtime losses, play a major roll in the public opinion of a team and naturally, the odds. At this writing, Ottawa leads the overall standings with 39 wins out of 63 games just slightly over 6 wins in 10. Buffalo, in dead last, have won only 3 of 10 but have tied 8 games or 1.3 of 10. The Buffalo Sabres in absolute last place have lost only 30 of 61 games in regulation and 5 more in overtime. Atlanta, tied in last with Buffalo have lost only 55% of their road games are + 260 in Vanvouver. I am not suggesting you bet on Atlanta or Buffalo, but want to point out the heavy odds against the skinnier probability of the favorite winning. The same holds with Minnesota at 1st place Ottawa
There are lots of games and as in other sports, you can bet them all, to keep your interest, but if you are trying to make money, it is wise to bet only those games that you think one team has a better opportunity to win over a team you feel is in a better position to lose. There are many styles of hockey wagering. I personally prefer to use the puck lines only when betting high scoring favorites. That is taking favorites that can cover a 1/2 puck or even 1 1/2 pucks easily. That avoids having to lay the heavy money line. For example if you liked Dallas over Boston on Tuesday night (Feb. 23), you either laid -165 or laid 1/2 puck and - 120. Personally, if I thought Dallas would win, the 1/2 puck makes little difference. Things can always go wrong and if so I wouldn't lose the 165. In a league where most teams are between 4 and 6 wins out of 10, it is tough laying over 150 on a regular basis. I am not suggesting that Boston is the correct bet in this situation because Dallas has been hot at home and Boston only so-so on the road. Nevertheless, the Bruins have lost only half of their road games and that chases me from laying 165 against them.
What do I like then? I like to have several things in my favour or an even shot with the odds in my favour. As a general rule, I prefer underdogs with a chance of getting a nice payout. Over the long run, the games bet should be close in wins and losses and the odds make your profits. When assessing the teams, I look at several things, trying not to make one reason too much greater than another. Several games in a few nights has an effect and strangely when a team returns home from a tough road trip, the first game back is often a disappointment.
Injuries to key players can be very damaging in the long run. One or two games without a star seem to be less of a problem. You cannot avoid the home and away records of teams. Recently the road has had less effect as the rinks now, are more standard but it cannot be disregarded. Who is hot and who is not. Look at how a team has played lately, as in last 5 or last 10 games. Be careful to look past the bare stats and see who and where they played. Obviously a win streak over the deep South East isn't as impressive as one against the strength of the Western Conference including teams like Detroit, Colorado, Dallas, St. Louis and Vancouver.
Conversely, a bad run against the top teams should be taken lighter than a skid against the also-rans. Hot goalies are something to consider especially when using a puck line or the over/under. I don't want to rain on the Toronto Maple Leafs hot record of late but it has been against a mediocre set of opponents. After playing New Jersey January 1st and 2nd they have played mostly teams with losing records and their so called tough games have come against, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington, none of which rank with the top Western teams. Pittsburgh, Florida, Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina and Chicago were patsies. Fortunately March promises more of the same but there are few tests or pitfalls to avoid as a Leaf follower. The games against Detroit in late February, Ottawa, Vancouver and perhaps the fast skating Edmonton Oilers will be a better judge of how Toronto will fare versus the better teams that they will see in the playoffs.
As in the NFL, nobody is as bad or as good as they appear to be, especially for one game. Use the odds and the fact that teams are more balanced than you may think. We will start evaluating the individual teams as the trade deadline comes and goes. Who is going for it this year and who are looking to the future.
