Boise St at Fresno State

[The Big Tease]

I will be back around lunchtime with a writeup, but I want to get a thread for this game started because the matchup intrigues me. This game will pull Fresno to tied in the conference and Fresno has revenge on thier minds from last years beating. Boise puts up points with little to no effort at all against most teams. Fresno has been rock solid at home including a win against Oregon State. Their only losses were AT Oklahoma, AT Tennessee, AT Hawaii (one of the toughest places to play in America)and AT Colorado State...no shame in any of those. Fresno has played the tougher schedule and is more battle tested. They were simlar underdogs in the oregon State game and came away with the outright victory. Both teams play VERY GOOD defense. The total is set at 56.

There is some seed info....lets nail this one. I will be back later!

 

[vinnie]

Like Fresno getting more than a td for sure but the total is moving up 57 now.

 

[i'm not the one]

FRESNO AT HOME GETTING MORE THEN A TD........JUST LUDACRIS!!!!!!!!! HAMMER THE HELL OUT OF THAT

THEY ALWAYS PLAY GOOD AT HOME

 

[The Big Tease]

OK?..now I have done my homework. Fresno State comes in undefeated at home here and is getting a whopping 9.5 points is what coach Pat Hill has deemed as the biggest game in his tenure as coach. The game will pull Fresno State to tied with Boise State in the conference and likely the champs as they would have the head to head advantage and they play UTEP to finish the season. Fresno State as, I said is undefeated at home this year and that includes a game against Oregon State at home in which Fresno pulled out the outright win. Fresno coach Hill also has been noted as saying that he does not anticipate a high scoring game. He respects Boise?s defense much more than the offense and that happens to be Fresno?s strength as well. And usually, as many know, when the intensity is high and the crowd is pumped, the defense is the aspect of the game in which the level of play is raised. At least for the home team. Look for a strong performance from the Fresno defensive group tonight. Boise can be held. Boise tends to rack up points against helpless teams. I think the perception is that they can score 50+ points against anyone, and my opinion is that is not the case. Do not get me wrong, Boise will score points, but if they score more than 30, I will be surprised. Fresno on the other hand will have their hands full scoring points against the best defense in the WAC. Boise plays a mean run defense and doesn?t give up much on the passing side either. If Fresno is going to stay in this game they will have to control the clock and show that they have the will to run the ball. I believe they can do that, and in fact, that is Coach Hill?s game plan. He has stated that he will attempt to run the ball and control the tempo of the game. With the crowd fired up, this is do-able.

As I stated before?Fresno?s losses were against very formidable opponents in very hostile environments. Hawaii, Oklahoma, Colorado State and Tennessee all on the road. Since then, they have run off 4 in a row to get to this position tonight. They beat Oregon State at home and that is no small feat. This is a good football team, and to be this high of an underdog at home, is an insult to them. I look for them to come out tough and the game should be a tough one throughout. If Fresno is to stay in this game it is because their defense is playing solid, which means that the total should not be in jeopardy.

My take on the game is this?.

Boise State 27
Fresno State 24

Boise may pull this one out late, but I would not rule out the Fresno outright victory. Fresno has been a VERY solid home dog over the past few years. No way, Boise covers the high number tonight. They are solid, but to go on the road and beat a perennial powerhouse (in mid-level school terms) is unthinkable.

Good Luck!

 

[StuckinNJ]

I agree, kind of

I agree, kind of

For what it's worth, I'm with you as far as BSU winning, but I come to a different conclusion as to how and how much.

First off, from the BSU perspective, they have seen defensive teams like Fresno State in previous games this year...teams like Idaho, Wyoming and San Jose State. This doesn't jibe too well with my gut perception of Fresno St. in recent times, but that's the way it looks to me this year. BSU has had no particular problems against teams like these. A SWAG at Dinwiddie's numbers leads me to something like 19 of 33 for roughly 300 yards, 3 TDs and, of course, 0 INTs. A SWAG at Mikell gives me 19 carries for roughly 80 yards. Based on this, I put BSU at around 31 points tonight.

From the other side of the field, Fresno St hasn't played any teams combining great rush defense with lousy pass offense, except for Oregon St. Yes, indeed, Fresno won that game, but I keep coming back to the fact that Pinegar didn't. Grady still taking the snaps at that point. I think things are different now. Over the last 5 games, where Pinegar has been the sole QB for Fresno St., a very strange thing has happened. In general, the better the pass defense they have faced, the more they have thrown. More importantly, the worse the passing defense faced, the more they have run. I cannot figure this strategy out, but then I don't have to, I just have to recognize it. BSU has a fine little run defense, and just plain little pass defense. Again, SWAGs at passing and rushing for Fresno St. lead me to numbers like 21 of 31 for 200 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT for Pinegar, and aggregate rushing numbers of around 36 carries for 175 yards. I make this out to be worth about 17 points.

So there it is, I agree that BSU beats The Other FSU, but I am leaning to a score of about 31-17. I'm taking BSU minus the points and the under for the game. I might be regretting it by the end of the 1st half, but then again...

 

[Fabulous]

Nice write up. However, Fresno is averaging giving up 193+ yards a game at home. Their losses to Oklahoma, Hawaii and Colorado State were all on the road so their rushing stats dont come into play and Fresno is still averaging 193+ rushing yards against them. This is not a good thing for Fresno especially since Boise has such a good offense. If Boise can run the ball at will they will be able to set up the pass off of the run and Fresno will have no answer. Any thoughts on this?

 

[treynolds]

I think the under might be the best play. I see the winner scoring in the mid to high 20's which would mean the the total would go under.


Favorits have been covering on most of the weekday games, which is im staying away from fresno tonight.


Gl

 

[StuckinNJ]

It appears that anyone and everyone can run on Fresno. Even Portland State put up over 250 yards at Fresno State. The issue to me is that BSU just doesn't seem to run Mikell to the limits, even when they could ("only" an 80 ypg average, if you take out the aberrant Idaho numbers). On the other hand, Dinwiddie tends to get his reps in against all teams, regardless of the score.

Based on BSU's style of playcalling/scoring and FSU's recent past performances (Pinegar at the helm and a coach insisting on beating the opponent's defensive strength rather than its weakness), I think BSU's score is far more uncertain than FSU's. That is, looking at scoring ranges around what I think the individual scores will be, I am more confident that FSU will fall into the 7-27 range than BSU will fall into the 21-41 range. Put another way, I think if the game goes over my implied total of around 48, I think more of the excess scoring will come from BSU than from FSU. I believe that this was your point and I agree.

The normal way to attack this sort of correlation problem is to take 2 parlays - FSU/under and BSU/over. The reason I personally did not do that this time is that I think that I have a large pad built into the Total already that is based on an overestimation of FSU's scoring power in this game. This is, of course, just my read on the situation. I would certainly not be offended if thought otherwise, stubborn if others could show otherwise, or stunned if proven wrong on the field.

I hope this addresses your question, and on a more basic level, I hope the question was addressed to me.

 

[Jaycadd]

I am personally waiting for WORM44's Smash play and them I am going the other way. Seems to pay good money about 90% of the time. Thank god he confirmed my So. Miss. pick! If he hadn't been all over TCU I might have been worried.

I am leaning towards FSU + points at home. A decent football team. Watched them play the Sooners. No lean on total. Public probably on the over which would move me towards the under.

 

[treynolds]

i noticed that also jaycadd

 

[Topdog]

STUCKinNJ

STUCKinNJ

Great call on the Boise/Fresno game!! Not too bad on predicting the score either. LOL!!

Keep it Positive, Topdog