8/29/06
With the NFL regular season just around the corner, Nevada bookmakers are hoping for a return to "normalcy" in the split between winning favorites and underdogs.
Last season, NFL favorites were an unprecedented 147-107 against the spread (ATS), a whopping 57.9 percent winning percentage.
Historically, favorites win at or near 50 percent in the NFL. Here is how they fared ATS over the past five seasons:
Won-loss win %
2005 147-107 57.9%
2004 125-130 49.1%
2003 128-120 51.6%
2002 112-137 45%
2001 116-122 48.7%
With favorites covering at such a high rate, the Nevada sports book industry took it on the chin. The "hold" or winning percentage on football bets plummeted from 5.47 percent in 2004 to 3.8 percent last year, which resulted in a 29 percent or $14 million decline in revenue.
The blood-letting spilled over into the industry?s lucrative parlay card operations, which saw its winning edge plunge from 34.9 percent in 2004 to 22.8 percent last year. That was worth another $7 million in lost revenue from the previous season.
After the season, Nevada bookmakers were scratching their heads, wondering why there was such a spike in winning favorites.
One theory that surfaced was that the Internet and other media made it easier for the public to gain crucial information.
But since only NFL betting was affected (and not college football or basketball), that notion was discarded.
Then, some critics pointed the finger at Nevada?s main oddsmaker, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, for possibly sending out "easier" betting lines.
Since LVSC had an ownership change last year, some theorized that the new line makers could have been "off" just enough to create winning opportunities for favorite bettors.
But most sports directors rejected that idea because they ultimately had the power to move the lines and would have adjusted to heavy favorite betting.
In the end, most experts agreed the high percentage of winning favorites was an aberration, the result of a large number of teams (20) enjoying a winning record as a favorite. (An average of 10 teams had winning records over the previous four seasons.)
Going into the 2006 season, Las Vegas bookmakers and oddsmakers claim they won?t do anything differently when it comes to setting the lines.
But if it appears that a team is doing better or worse than expected, you can be assured that the point spread will be the first adjustment that will be made.
Of course, sports books don?t like to over adjust. And while they?re seeking the right level, astute bettors should be able to cash a few more tickets.
With the NFL regular season just around the corner, Nevada bookmakers are hoping for a return to "normalcy" in the split between winning favorites and underdogs.
Last season, NFL favorites were an unprecedented 147-107 against the spread (ATS), a whopping 57.9 percent winning percentage.
Historically, favorites win at or near 50 percent in the NFL. Here is how they fared ATS over the past five seasons:
Won-loss win %
2005 147-107 57.9%
2004 125-130 49.1%
2003 128-120 51.6%
2002 112-137 45%
2001 116-122 48.7%
With favorites covering at such a high rate, the Nevada sports book industry took it on the chin. The "hold" or winning percentage on football bets plummeted from 5.47 percent in 2004 to 3.8 percent last year, which resulted in a 29 percent or $14 million decline in revenue.
The blood-letting spilled over into the industry?s lucrative parlay card operations, which saw its winning edge plunge from 34.9 percent in 2004 to 22.8 percent last year. That was worth another $7 million in lost revenue from the previous season.
After the season, Nevada bookmakers were scratching their heads, wondering why there was such a spike in winning favorites.
One theory that surfaced was that the Internet and other media made it easier for the public to gain crucial information.
But since only NFL betting was affected (and not college football or basketball), that notion was discarded.
Then, some critics pointed the finger at Nevada?s main oddsmaker, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, for possibly sending out "easier" betting lines.
Since LVSC had an ownership change last year, some theorized that the new line makers could have been "off" just enough to create winning opportunities for favorite bettors.
But most sports directors rejected that idea because they ultimately had the power to move the lines and would have adjusted to heavy favorite betting.
In the end, most experts agreed the high percentage of winning favorites was an aberration, the result of a large number of teams (20) enjoying a winning record as a favorite. (An average of 10 teams had winning records over the previous four seasons.)
Going into the 2006 season, Las Vegas bookmakers and oddsmakers claim they won?t do anything differently when it comes to setting the lines.
But if it appears that a team is doing better or worse than expected, you can be assured that the point spread will be the first adjustment that will be made.
Of course, sports books don?t like to over adjust. And while they?re seeking the right level, astute bettors should be able to cash a few more tickets.
