Bowels

[IntenseOperator]

Memphis' starting RB and a wideout are probably going to miss the game.

I'm liking Memphis here.

Big loss last game as a 9 point road chalk gave them a taste of the future if they don't win here. The fact that NT played some monster programs earlier in the year doesn't mean much to me. Memphis' D and O are ranked higher and each will focus more with the stud players out. From what I've seen online, and the line movement, the public is favoring NT here. Not to emphasize that, but just something to take note of. NT won't be walking into this game unnoticed as they have the last couple NO Bowl games they played in. Memphis already played a game (and won big) on the turf this year while NT hasn't yet.

Ton of trends favoring NT.

Some key ones favoring Memphis

Memphis is 9-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.
Memphis is 9-1 ATS off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival.


GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

The deadly flu bug is knocking out Lou players. Read an article on how is really hitting the defense esp hard. Line moves half a point to 14 like is wasn't going to do that anyway. Total hasn't moved much at all with all the recent stories on this game. Fourth road game for Mia O. I'm also thinking Mia O should be ranked much higher and is better than many of those above it. They won their last game and most of their games in dominating fashion. No reason for them to play any better at this point for respect they ain't going to receive, even if they destroy a weaker Lou team here. I think Lou has to try to run the ball in the 1st half to keep Mia O off the field while their defense may have a couple wrinkles for Mia O. I also think the Mia Oh will want to run a bit to keep Lou offense off the field to start the game. UNDER may be the value play here with these to high scoring teams. Lou 4/0 O/U this year after playing a game as a fav, but historically that trend favored the Under for them. In all games they are 5/1 O/U but I think that trend also comes closer to their history of Under leans in that trend. On grass, 4/0 O/U, same thoughts as above. If each teams running attempts do not succeed, they will go to what they know best and each will become one sided and may be easier to defend. If the running game works for either, it will take time off the clock as they move the ball. The layoff may hurt Mia O here more. Lou has had more of a reason to focus on their opponent being the dog and having players sick while Mia O has had to sit around and listen of talk of the higher bowls with less talented teams that they are not in. Their focus may take a bit more time to come around tonight.

Under 1st half

and

Under for the game

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Over

Over

I'm thinking Kansas is going to give NC St a game here. They aren't going to do it by holding them down. NC St has played better talent. The monster teams that they almost beat should not make one overlook the fact that they lost to Wake, GT, and Maryland, while also not having stellar wins against some other slouch teams. Might be a motivation thing here with them (from what this years history says), bad sign when playing for a lower bowl game than expected. Neither team is going to be mistaken for the '84 Bears, the greatest team in organized sports history to grace this planet LOL (no I'm not).

Kansas
Giving up 4.7 ypr to teams that av 3.9, giving up 5.4 on the road, 5.5 in the last three. Passing D on the road, 66.7% completion to what the average is for their opponents on the season 53.7. They can be run, thrown, 3 point shot against by this stronger team they are up against now. Road games and grass games they are giving up over 43 pts/game. With their QB back they should be able to score at least 30 (seasons av) tonight against this D.

NC St
D against the pass (Kansas' #1 threat) gives up 60% on the season (as well as on grass and on the road) against opponents that av 58.7 offensively. Kansas' O ranks 32nd in the nation (a 6-6 team by the way) and will be throwing against this D. Either completions/incompletions with the clock stopping a lot. Offensively, NC St has a +70% completion % (road and grass as well) against D's that av 59.3%. They are also going to throw like crazy against one of the weaker passing D than they have seen all year. Again, scoring and clock stoppages.

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

I know I was late (just got home)

this is my personal bowl record as well

 

[IntenseOperator]

Boise St and the Under

Boise St does have a decent D, and on the road they held Hawaii to 28, Fresno St to 17, and BYU to 12. The opposition may not have been as run oriented but they new they were in a shootout and this is all they could muster. Meanwhile, Boise' D knew they were in a shootout and knew their team was scoring and still held the others down. I know TCU has played a better schedule but I don't see them scoring over 14 tonight. From my read on the past season I also think there will be at least 5 or 6 turnovers btwn these two tonight which will help the game go Under. Boise St weak schedule and early lose doesn't have them all pissed that they didn't make a better bowl. TCU will run and run more than Boise has seen and they won't stop regardless of the score. TCU held Lou's passing game to 28 so they may have an impact early on the monster Boise QB but I think Boise ends up pulling this one out and covering in a mild scoring game. TCU played through the expectations and pressure as the season rolled on but lost SU and ATS a couple games ago and didn't show up in a win against SMU. Also read that the suspensions won't impact this one as much as originally thought.

Boise St not a team to let up when hot....
as a fav of (10-) to 21, 12-0 ATS
as a road fav of (7-) to 14, 6-1 ATS
when playing with two weeks or more rest, 8-2 ATS
3-0 in minor (Dec) bowl games
on a grass field 11-6 ATS, 3-1 this year
14-5 ATS on the road last three years, 5-2 this year
10-4 ATS as a road fav, 4-2 this year

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Ore St

Over Ore St

 

[IntenseOperator]

I'm liking the dog in this one and the over
I don't think Haw may be as pumped for this one as Houston is, a program not too far from an 0-11 season. If this was a bigger name opponent, I might lean to the fav. Read it somewhere in the past to lean towards the dog in these high scoring affairs. I think Houstons strong spot passing game will compliment their running attack very well against Haw's weak passing D. Houston was able to score well on TCU and Miss St earlier. Any QB Haw throws in there (Chang this time) will do well against this Houston D, so that won't be of any distraction IMO. I also don't think there will be more than 2 or 3 turnovers so that will help the Over (along with the Defenses). Haw missing one of there "better" defensive players. Against the same two opponents this season, Haw allowed the opponents to score over 24 pts while Houston allowed 14. Haw was the beneficiary of (4-) turnovers on av in those two games from the opponents offense and still gave up more points while Houston received an av of one and held them down to a lower scoring av.

Haw 10/1 O/U over last three years after having won 2 of 3
6/1 as a fav of (10-) to 21
7/1 off a loss to a conference rival
7/2 in a home game where the total is >=63

GL Jackers

 

[Kdogg21]

nice call yesterday IO!!!! im still having trouble with this game as well. I liked the dog getting 10.5 or 11, but the more i'm looking at it, the more im like the warriors. tough to say what hawaii eam will show up. Good luck to ya bud!!!

 

[IntenseOperator]

GL on your action today Kdogg21.



I'm heading out

Both dogs here looking real good to me. Both have shown better numbers (yardage wise) against opponents averages defensively and offensively, and the opponents these two have played over the course of this past season were much stronger than their opponents today. I can't find a reason neither will be less motivated than their opponents. Their won't be many turnovers in either game and NW will likely capitalize on a couple more in todays game. I think BG may have a bit of a let down against this opponent after getting blown out in a huge payback game against Mia Oh.

NW
Under NW

Cal
Over Cal

(I'm heading out and posting this now, don't shoot me if I change my mind when/if I get back in time)

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

forget the totals

just going to play each dog

NW game could go Over on the carpet and VT game could easily go Under

 

[IntenseOperator]

Pitt

Spread and ML

 

[IntenseOperator]

for tracking

for tracking

played NW ML
+ Cal ML

played NW half +(4-)
+ half Cal +(1/2)

also
Under Cal

Back to your normal programming

 

[IntenseOperator]

didn't want it to look like I was ducking my thread

didn't want it to look like I was ducking my thread

(re-post)

Alamo Bowl
Nebraska (leaning heavy towards the Under)

I'll take the Husker's run game and defense over Smoker's arm and M St run defense. Mich St definitely is more likely to have more turnovers tonight as well. Neb's D got 44 turnovers against a better schedule to M St's 29 which was the best in the Big Ten. The Nebraska players are upset and want this coach (Bo Pelini), a defensive orientated one, to be their next head coach. No better way than to go out extremely motivated and dominate this game. I don't see how Solich's removal will affect their running attack, or hurt their already woeful passing attack with Lord at the helm. Mich St hasn't done well historically when their run game has been totally shut down. It will be tonight. Their one-sided attack will be defended against. The Husker's 2nd to last game was against probably the best playing team in the country in K St. They got behind and were dominated pretty well. I don't think this Mich St team is anywhere near that level and Neb D oriented coach will want to win this game over Smoker's arm to increase his future employment possiblities, which most likely won't be at Neb. Smoker threw 21 TD's to 11 picks. I think tonight he'll be good for at least two or three INT's. Both teams played Penn St at home. M St score was more impressive, but I would say Neb was dominating in their own style with 337 yds rushing. Nebraska played higher level competition all year, and have the motivation. It's been a nice turn-around for Mich St but reality sets in tonight.

Neb 25-7 SU when a fav over the last three years, 9-1 SU this year
M St 8-10 SU as a dog over the last three years, 3-3 SU this year
When the total is btwn (49-) and 56, Neb 0/2 O/U, M St 2/4 O/U, this year
On turf this year, Neb 2/3 O/U, M St 3/6 O/U
In non-conference games over the last three years, Neb 2/7 O/U (1/1 this year), M St 3/6 O/U (0/3 this year).

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Navy/TTech Over

Navy av 400 yds running/game on the season give or take 30 yds (road, home, grass, night-time etc) and 6 yds/carry. TT gives up 250+ yds defensively and 6 yds/carry to offenses that av 162 and 4 yds per carry. I think Navy will at least get their yds and their 30 to 40 points. TT will definitely score their 30 to 40+ and I think the Over has a great shot to come in. 3 TD's per quarter here I don't think will be a problem btwn these two. Lots of 1st downs, a few missed passes, and some running out of bounds will make for a lot of clock stoppages. From what I've read, Navy doesn't sound all that intense for this matchup, in other words, they ain't thinking about stopping anybody. I think this will be the Fun Bowl, where scoring will be abound. I don't think TT is in the habit of letting up on anyone either all year or in a nationally televised bowl game. Blowout=Over. Close game=Over. IMO

GL Jackers

 

[AR182]

intenseoperator,

love the title of your thread!!


good luck!!

 

[IntenseOperator]

Thanks Ari

Thanks Ari

Figured I'd be looking at this thread enough, gave it a stupid start

No time for write-up

UCLA
Over UCLA

Wash St
Under Wash St

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Think the public and the team wanting to keep the coach, along with some other factors, will keep the team more motivated to bring in a W here. This is actually the beginning of something, not the end. Wisco's bowl run was with better teams.


Aub

Under Aub

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Oregon

Under Oregon

Over Utah

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Ark

Under Ark

Bc

Under BC

GL Jackers

 

[IntenseOperator]

Iowa and Under


Iowa has a good running D, ranked 11th, that's been tested in Big 10 Conference games against the likes of Perry of Mich. This Fl freshman QB will have to bring it today against a D also that held opponents that av 7.1 yds to 6.3 and is ranked 15th nationally overall. Many of Iowa players still have the memory of last years bowl game in their heads while they play, what I consider, a weaker opponent in a lower bowl. If this is to be considered a home game for FL, that may not be in their best interests. Losing 3 of six at home, with the 3 wins against "puppies" and doing horribly ATS. Fl is also 1-5 as a fav and won't be as motivated for this one as Iowa will be. Time for a Big Ten team to show up.

GL Jackers