Bowl Contest Consensus

[jr11]

i need alcohol, where the Grey Goose?? In due time...

Some of you know that I am running a bowl contest and it was posted over in the gereral forum. We had a total of 100 entries, or $2000 in the pot. Here's the consensus with opening lines I used right after the bowl selection show. Mind you, lines have changed but nothing I could do if I wanted to get the contest out...

FLA ST +5.5 52/100 or 52%
Alabama +3.5 55/100 or 55%
Rutgers-7 76/100 or 76% :nono:
Texas A&M +5 57/100 or 57%
Clemson-11 54/100 or 54%
Missouri+4 57/100 or 57%
So Carolina -7 60/100 or 60%
Tex Tech -7.5 57/100 or 57%
Purdue+3.5 56/100 or 56%
BC-7.5 60/100 or 60%
Iowa +11 50/100 or 50%
VT-3 52/100 or 52%
Miami-3 57/100 or 57%
Tennessee-5.5 58/100 or 58%
Auburn-3 51/100 or 51%
WVU-7.5 68/100 or 68%:sadwave:
Wisconsin+2 58/100 or 58%
Michigan-2.5 63/100 or 63% :scared
Boise St +8 56/100 or 56%
Louisville-9.5 59/100 or 59%
LSU-9 52/100 or 52%
Ohio State-8 60/100 or 60 %

I am pretty sure this is accurate, but I was buzzing through them and if one of you that entered in want to doublecheck feel free. Open for discussion........

jr11

 

[gman2]

this is a great post because it proves just how bogus a lot of those consensus sites are.

you listed 22 games
and NINETEEN of them fell in the 50-60% range.

yet every day, you see guys buying into completely bogus sportsbook.com numbers that say 92% is on 'so and so' or that 89% is on 'so and so'.

from a mathematical standpoint, you werent even able to get 80+% on a given side with a 100 person sample. those numbers stand no chance of getting toward 85 and 90% as you INCREASE the sample size.

~~ edit. didnt know it was a forum contest and not local ~~

interesting stuff jr. thanks for the post.

 

[jr11]

gman, i understand where you coming from and I have long said, it is where the $ is not the consensus. let's use a small sample size of 3, 2/3 play team A for $110/100 and the other 1/3 plays team B for $550/500, who do you think they need?

anyways, i haven't went through everything yet as i am fried, but it was already made known to me that one of the consensus sites we us here locally has pretty much the same % on Rutgers, or 76-77% that constitutes a wider range than the aforementioned regional skewing.

yes, i am from western PA, therefore we might show some bias towards the Big East or Big Ten because that is what we most likely get stuck watching. I am forutnate to have DTV with the ESPN Game Plan and NFL Ticket, therefore I get to see me money going down the drain.:142smilie

mostly local, but about 1/3 or so of the entrants are throughout the country.

jr11