Bowl Games 12/27-1/4

bigdad2

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YTD (posted in other bowl threads) 4-1

I have posted bets in other's threads but looking to lay out my plays the rest of the way here. Still can't get over the UCLA loss as that was as bad a call as the GT game was good...


UVA -4.5 - Here is a match-up where one team is taking a "step up" in terms of competition. Expectations were high early in the season for Groh and UVA with the 3 losses coming at the hands of VT, Miami and FSU. This is not only the most talented but also the physical team Fresno State has seen all year. They will have difficulty covering TE Miller and the balance UVA has running and passing should keep the defense on their heels.

Miami (OH) - 1.5 - This is by far my strongest bowl play of the season. Iowa State has really only one "quality" win @KSU this year. Looking at the rest of their schedule they lost to MIZZ, COL, A&M, OSU and IOWA. The reason that the Cyclones are bowl-eligible is that this was a down year in the Big-12 North... period. Miami's spread offense is the first they will see this year and I believe the speed of Miami's receivers will cause match-up problems. Factor in that Miami has a BIG advantage in special teams with Robinson plus the kicking woes for ISU and this line should be 4-5. WR Larkin is listed as probable but everything I've read and heard says that he will plays. This is a senior who, many of you might not know, has the NCAA record for most consecutive games with a reception. Aside from being Barry Larkin's cousin the kid has a ton of heart and will not go out there to just extend his record. I expect him to go out with a bang to finish his career. Another factor is that this game will be an "interview" for Offensive Coordinator Shane Montgomery. Miami has a vacated HC position to fill and the team generally fills it in-house as Hoeppner was the DC who took over for Randy Walker when he bolted for Northwestern.

Mark your calendar now for next September when Miami travels to Ohio State the first game of the year. Your truly will be there in person, as I was for the near upset in '00. With OSU's QB-situation in question and a TON of talent returning for the Red Hawks I have this game marked for an early-season upset...

Best of luck to all and I will update with more plays as the week goes on.
 
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bigdad2

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c20916 - This game changed completely with QB Smith suspended. I had it with him as a solid play for OSU as they are a different team with him under center. It will be very interesting to see what happens in terms of next year as without him the team has a possible "trap" versus Miami next year. For two years I have been telling people that Zwick is not progressing as well as the coaches had hoped for someone who was so highly touted coming out of HS. I can't see him coming in for the bowl game and leading OSU to 3 or 4 TD drives when he failed to score more than one for 3 straight weeks. My initial lean now is away from the side and to take the UNDER. Ok. State depends heavily on the run and OSU is going to stack the line with 7 or even 8 at times. Honestly, this could be an ugly game and as I am writing this I am favoring the UNDER more and more. OSU now has a 2nd offensive factor with the "Ginn factor" to go along with Holmes. At best let's say Ginn gets a TD, Holmes catches one and Ross punches one in. Two Nugent FG's and at best they score 27, although I think 24 is more like it. OkSt.'s RB Moore is a pounding back who gives the team a chance to keep it close with ball-control and eating up the clock. Lots of FG's and even at 26-23 this game goes UNDER...

OSU/OSU - UNDER 50
 

bigdad2

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Louisville -13.5 - See if you can follow me here. LY Miami (OH) and UL played each other in the GMAC bowl with MU a 14-point favorite. The final score was 49-28. This year UL has arguably a better offense than Miami's LY and nearly upset the OTHER Miami giving up a big 4th quarter lead. BSU's toughest opponent was a pick of either Fresno State or Oregon State although both were home games. All signs point to a blowout in my book in the area of 53-34.
 

bigdad2

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Toledo -1.5 (1H) - More of a bet against UConn's defense then on Toledo. Without the Rocket's starting RB they will be pass-heavy to start the game. It will be interesting to see how long Gradowski will stay in with the injury. Could see a backdoor cover on the side so value is in the 1H.
 

AR182

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bigdad2,

glad to see you posting your picks.

i can't get iver the ucla game either....i thought for sure that they would show for that game....


good luck for the rest of the bowl season.
 

The Judge

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Good stuff Bigdad2. I'm with you on Toledo, Miami OH and Louisville. All three shoud cas easily.
 
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