Bowl match-up strength of schedule..

[Dogphish]

Shamelessly borrowed from another site.....


Here's a look at this year's S.O.S. rankings...

Southern Cal (5) vs. Oklahoma (11)
Auburn (53) vs. Virginia Tech (31)
Michigan (47) vs. Texas (10)
Utah (46) vs. Pittsburgh (78)
LSU (33) vs. Iowa (36)
Florida State (20) vs. West Virginia (77)
Texas A&M (1) vs. Tennessee (32)
Wisconsin (61) vs. Georgia (25)
Miami (6) vs. Florida (49)
Louisville (66) vs. Boise State (82)
Purdue (51) vs. Arizona State (4)
Alabama (63) vs. Minnesota (68)
Northern Illinois (113) vs. Troy (90)
California (9) vs. Texas Tech (14)
New Mexico (35) vs. Navy (99)
N. Carolina (2) vs. Boston College (75)
Oklahoma State (13) vs. Ohio State (39)
Colorado (15) vs. UTEP (87)
Iowa State (38) vs. Miami (116)
Oregon State (3) vs. Notre Dame (23)
Toledo (103) vs. Connecticut (96)
Fresno State (88) vs Virginia (27)
UAB (83) vs. Hawaii (93)
Wyoming (59) vs. UCLA (12)
Cincinnati (71) vs. Marshall (100)
Memphis (92) vs. Bowling Green (112)
Georgia Tech (26) vs. Syracuse (54)
North Texas (98) vs. Southern Miss (70)




Last edited by Phil Margonis on 12-08-2004 at 12:32 PM

 

[Sun Tzu]

The problem with that is whose SOS rankings are you relying upon - there are some of all over the map. Not sure it means anything anyway, but be careful relying on one set of those.

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks Dogphish! I def. use SOS as a tool in my handicapping. Very much appreciated. Where did you get these specific SOS's from? So we can see how they were calculated. I def. will be coming back to this thread after bowl season.

 

[AR182]

the sos rating is from massey......

last year if you bet solely on strength of schedule...the lowest being the strongest.....you would have been 18-7-1 ats...which is over 70%.

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks AR182. Great info.

 

[Master Capper]

Massey is one of the worst strength of schedule indicators around, only Sagrins is worse in my book.

 

[AR182]

mc,

do you use anybody to determine strength of schedule ?

 

[Scott4USC]

Why would anybody think his SOS is one of the worst? I WOULD LOVE TO HERE AN EXPLANATION! Maybe his computer formula is biased? (yeah right) I know exactly why some people don't like his or Sagarin SOS. The funny thing is those same people can't explain why they dislike his SOS. :142lmao:

Massey Ratings Desription
massey ratings description

Detailed SOS Explanation
Massey SOS

Sagarin Explanation

"The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game.

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 239 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations."

 

[Bill]

There will always be different approaches to SOS determination and personal preference will bias you to which ever one you like but most of these guys are trying to develop mathematical models that will demonstrate that their model's theory will be proven by the results of competition. If they have poorly developed and flawed theory and mathematical ability they will be viewed as incompetent which is the worst possible punishment. These guys may gamble, but they are mathematicians first and foremost.

Most of us have no idea of the concepts they use and base our judgement on a $10 bet we won or lost "because of so-and-sos" mathematical model. We love to blame others but the reality is that their models are tied to probability of teams repeating the same performances as in the past with no consideration (in most if not all models) to injuries, personal problems of the players, emotional highs and lows, player reflections and anticipations of past or future games: the list of variable is infinite and unknown.

At the end of the day the SOS is a tool that a capper should use but not an absolute roadmap to victory.



JMO
Bill

 

[hawkeye]

I like Phil Steele's SOS best

 

[taoist]

I like Phil Steele's SOS best

:yup :yup

 

[Master Capper]

AR182,

Personally, I have found Donbest and Phil Steele's SOS to be the best and most accurate. I used Massey and Sagrins for years and have found after studying other SOS websites that both of these are terrible indicators of head to head matchups in football and this is especially true for Massey which is very top heavy. For basketball I have found that Pomeroy and Greenfield are both great site for SOS comparisons. I beleive that Massey has even stopped doing basketball and Sagrins is terrible for hoops, just for example for weeks according to Sagrins rankings teams such as Kent, Hofstra and other mid-majors would be favorites over UNC. As I have stated before the only unbiased strength of schedule is the NCAA own website.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Amazing that with all of teh date and knowledge Steele spews that he cant crap worth a darn. It's all marketing. He gets a spot on the sporttalk show here each week. I once called in and told the screener I wanted to discuss his record. I was told I wouldnt be put on.

Of course, Mack Brown quit taking calls on his call in show. Advance email only - and oddly enough each one is full of praise.

 

[Ave Atlantica]

Where can I find Phil Steele's and Donbest's SOS?

 

[Scott4USC]

AR182,

Personally, I have found Donbest and Phil Steele's SOS to be the best and most accurate. I used Massey and Sagrins for years and have found after studying other SOS websites that both of these are terrible indicators of head to head matchups in football and this is especially true for Massey which is very top heavy.

Are we talking about SOS or head to head matchups? Why would anybody use a computer poll solely to pick winners? If it was that easy, everyone would be winners. I find computers are best used for SOS. I also find Sagarin and now even massey to be the best at determining SOS. I have yet to see an explaination why both are poor at determining SOS and why others are better. These critics can't explain why.

As I have stated before the only unbiased strength of schedule is the NCAA own website.

You are implying Sagarin and Massey are biased? HOW? I laugh at all these people who say these computer polls are biased. Does Sagarin award more pts playing on the west coast? Is that factored in his calculation? Does he give bonus pts if you play up North? Take away pts if you play in humid weather?

Why do you always voice your opinion and detest something or promote something else yet you never explain why on either issue. You don't educate anyone by just giving your opinion for/against something. Explaining your opinion educates people. Why is Sagarin and Massey biased? Of course the NCAA is not biased. Don't they base their SOS by wins/losses? That is flawed and bogus and I have proven why. Yet you think they have the best SOS calculation. Why are you so convinced? A 10 year old can calculate the SOS the NCAA uses. There are no formulas. They don't distinguish betweeon home/away games. Games won on the road are equal to games won at home. Playing a team from the MAC with 11 wins AT HOME is considered a tougher win than a team from the SEC who has 10 wins ON THE ROAD . Thats the kind of calculation you like and prefer?

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,

Go back to Sagarin's and read the whole website at tsome point you will see an explanation on how to predict outcomes of games using his rating system. Do you think that the USA Today has published his ratings for years just so people could see the SOS? As a matter of fact Massey predicts each game every week. Scott, someday you will come to the realization that just because you believe something it is not the opinion that MUST be accepted by everyone.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott,

Go back to Sagarin's and read the whole website at tsome point you will see an explanation on how to predict outcomes of games using his rating system. Do you think that the USA Today has published his ratings for years just so people could see the SOS? As a matter of fact Massey predicts each game every week. Scott, someday you will come to the realization that just because you believe something it is not the opinion that MUST be accepted by everyone.

NO you are wrong MC. I respect anybody's opinion as long as they can explain why they feel that way. YOU REPEATEDLY FAIL TO DO THAT! You chastize Sagarin (but never explain why) and you pump up the NCAA SOS (but never explain why). Why is one so good and one so bad. I have explained why I feel Sagarin is the best and why the NCAA is bogus. I gave great examples that NOBODY can dispute because they are the truth.

You just want people to respect your opinion alone with no explanation. Sorry, that doesn't work with people who like to think outside the box. Just because somebody says one thing is great, an intelligent person wants to know why. You fail to explain the why part.

This discussion is NOT about Sagarin predicting the scores or beating the spread. It is about Strength of Schedule. It is virtually impossible to make a perfect computer poll because of so many different variables. However, you can easily justify/argue that some carry a lot more credibility than others. I have explained why, you have not.

Why is this so hard for you to grasp?

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,


Why should I explain when it's pretty self explanatory? You said he doesn't post his poll for prediction purposes but if you read the site he tells you how to predict the games. What do you want me to explain about his basketball poll? I think it's pretty black and white if you look at the teams he has in the top ten that his numbers are a joke. While we are at it, I perused his NFL plays in the USA Today (Fri) and according to his numbers every dog should cover tomorrow (against the number) and yes there is a blurb telling folks how to use his site for predictions. What do you want me to explain to you about Massey? The guy is terrible, his numbers are completely out of line, he tanked this year in college football and has completely stopped posting basketball. This discussion has everything to do with Sagarin or Massey and the spread because that is what they advertise on their website on how to use it to predict games. Scott, why do you believe everything you post is SUPER information? The reason you back Sagrin are stupid, why dont you say I back them because they validate my argument? Cite some of the other computer polls and explain why they suck, not just the poll that produces the result that you want.

 

[Scott4USC]

Master Capper

I already explained why Sagarin IMO is the best computer poll. I also explained why the "other" computer polls who determine SOS based on wins/losses is bogus. So why are you asking me to explain again? You are the one who has not explained anything. You sure as hell bash Sagarin and pump up the NCAA SOS. But you never exaplain why you diss one and pump up the other. Oh yeah, one is biased and other is not!

Why in the world would you bring up Sagarin hoop ratings? I am talkinga bout CFB!

I also am not talking about using Sagarin for predicting games. I am talking about Sagarin for SOS.

Lastly, you can find flaws in Sagarin. Not saying Sagarin is perfect. Never did. I have said Sagarin is better than the other computers and I explained why.

 

[bombercoops]

Looking forward to paying attention to the strength of schedules as the bowl season progresses! SOS= 1-0.