Bowl Season Best Bets - Part I
- The bowl season is underway with three games already in the books, and the underdog has come out on top in two of the three. The favorites held a slight advantage the last two postseasons at 34-32 (52%) but the dogs won at a 57% clip the prior two years.
Could this season see a reversal of form? There are still 30 games left before the BCS Championship Game, so only time will tell.
Either way, let's move forward with this upcoming week's best bets, beginning with Wednesday's Poinsettia Bowl.
California and Utah meet for the seventh time ,with the Golden Bears leading the series four games to two. However, look for Utah to close the gap by one with a win in San Diego.
The Utes have been victorious in eight straight bowl games, including an impressive 6-2 ATS mark. In fact, they are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS career-wise in postseason play when getting points. They didn't have as solid a year in '09 as last season's undefeated campaign, but 9-3 with losses to Oregon, TCU and BYU is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
Utah lost by only a touchdown to the Ducks, a team that blew out California by 39 points. In that game, the Utes held Jeremiah Masoli to 4-of-16 passing for just 95 yards, just one example of how dominant their pass defense has been in '09 as they finished sixth nationally, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 50.1% completion percentage.
The defense also held Max Hall to 134 yards threw the air on 12-of-32 passing in a three-point overtime loss in Provo. The only other defeat was a 55-28 loss at TCU, but the Utes can take some solace in the fact they scored the most points against a Horned Frogs defense since September 2008, a span of 18 games.
California comes into this contest at 8-4, including a 2-2 mark in its final four games. The two wins came over Arizona (a game the Golden Bears led by only two points with less than two minutes remaining) and Stanford.
The win over the Cardinal is not as impressive as it sounds, considering Jim Harbaugh's club was coming off a very emotional triumph over USC the week before and was due for a letdown.
The Bears defense has been shaky all season long, allowing 24.5 points-per- game. In addition, the unit gave up 117 points in the final four contests. After finishing the '08 season tops in the Pac-10 in defensive quarterback completion percentage at 50%, the secondary was abused in '09 allowing 63%, good for eighth best in the league.
Take Utah plus the points.
The following evening, SMU hooks up with Nevada in a matchup featuring the highest point-spread differential of all 34 bowl games.
The Wolf Pack was favored by over two touchdowns last week but the line has since dropped to 12.5 after leading rusher Vai Taua was declared academically ineligible. Taua's loss wouldn't be quite so dramatic if Luke Lippincott was available, but the other running back to pick up 1,000 yards will also miss the contest due to a toe injury.
The Nevada rushing attack that led the country in yards-per-game and yards-per- carry will now be without two of the team's three 1,000-yard rushers.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolf Pack ranked 119th nationally in pass defense allowing 31 passing touchdowns, the highest number in the entire country. SMU owns a 55%-45% pass-run ratio so look for the Mustangs to exploit the 'Pack's major weakness.
SMU's June Jones is very familiar with the state of Hawaii as he was the Warriors head coach for nine years. He never lost to Nevada when coaching Hawaii (4-0), while the Wolf Pack is 1-5 in its last six trips to Honolulu. In addition, Chris Ault's squad is 0-3 in its last three bowl games, and the 'Pack has never won a bowl game by more than seven points in school history.
Take SMU plus the points.
The final top play of the early going has Temple taking on UCLA.
It's been a storybook season for Al Golden and the Temple Owls as they reached the postseason for the first time in 30 years. However, they had one of the easiest schedules in the entire country with just four of the 12 games against teams with winning records.
The Owls went 1-3 in those games with the lone win coming vs. a Navy team that played the majority of the contest without its starting quarterback. Moreover, Temple needed a late touchdown by freshman running back Bernard Pierce to even pick up the victory.
UCLA improved by two games from last season's 4-8 record but if Army had upset Navy a couple of weeks back, the Bruins would be home this postseason. Still, even with the disappointing 6-6 mark, Rick Neuheisel's club will not be taking this game lightly since they are able to play another game, something the team did not accomplish last year.
Both Temple quarterbacks - Chester Stewart and Vaughn Charlton - finished the regular season completing fewer than 50% of their passes and that came against questionable competition. Imagine what will happen when they face a UCLA secondary loaded with the likes of Alterraun Verner and Rahim Moore. Needless to say, it won't be pretty.
Look for the Bruins to take it to Temple early and often as they win this one by at least a touchdown.
Go with UCLA minus the points.
- The bowl season is underway with three games already in the books, and the underdog has come out on top in two of the three. The favorites held a slight advantage the last two postseasons at 34-32 (52%) but the dogs won at a 57% clip the prior two years.
Could this season see a reversal of form? There are still 30 games left before the BCS Championship Game, so only time will tell.
Either way, let's move forward with this upcoming week's best bets, beginning with Wednesday's Poinsettia Bowl.
California and Utah meet for the seventh time ,with the Golden Bears leading the series four games to two. However, look for Utah to close the gap by one with a win in San Diego.
The Utes have been victorious in eight straight bowl games, including an impressive 6-2 ATS mark. In fact, they are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS career-wise in postseason play when getting points. They didn't have as solid a year in '09 as last season's undefeated campaign, but 9-3 with losses to Oregon, TCU and BYU is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
Utah lost by only a touchdown to the Ducks, a team that blew out California by 39 points. In that game, the Utes held Jeremiah Masoli to 4-of-16 passing for just 95 yards, just one example of how dominant their pass defense has been in '09 as they finished sixth nationally, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 50.1% completion percentage.
The defense also held Max Hall to 134 yards threw the air on 12-of-32 passing in a three-point overtime loss in Provo. The only other defeat was a 55-28 loss at TCU, but the Utes can take some solace in the fact they scored the most points against a Horned Frogs defense since September 2008, a span of 18 games.
California comes into this contest at 8-4, including a 2-2 mark in its final four games. The two wins came over Arizona (a game the Golden Bears led by only two points with less than two minutes remaining) and Stanford.
The win over the Cardinal is not as impressive as it sounds, considering Jim Harbaugh's club was coming off a very emotional triumph over USC the week before and was due for a letdown.
The Bears defense has been shaky all season long, allowing 24.5 points-per- game. In addition, the unit gave up 117 points in the final four contests. After finishing the '08 season tops in the Pac-10 in defensive quarterback completion percentage at 50%, the secondary was abused in '09 allowing 63%, good for eighth best in the league.
Take Utah plus the points.
The following evening, SMU hooks up with Nevada in a matchup featuring the highest point-spread differential of all 34 bowl games.
The Wolf Pack was favored by over two touchdowns last week but the line has since dropped to 12.5 after leading rusher Vai Taua was declared academically ineligible. Taua's loss wouldn't be quite so dramatic if Luke Lippincott was available, but the other running back to pick up 1,000 yards will also miss the contest due to a toe injury.
The Nevada rushing attack that led the country in yards-per-game and yards-per- carry will now be without two of the team's three 1,000-yard rushers.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolf Pack ranked 119th nationally in pass defense allowing 31 passing touchdowns, the highest number in the entire country. SMU owns a 55%-45% pass-run ratio so look for the Mustangs to exploit the 'Pack's major weakness.
SMU's June Jones is very familiar with the state of Hawaii as he was the Warriors head coach for nine years. He never lost to Nevada when coaching Hawaii (4-0), while the Wolf Pack is 1-5 in its last six trips to Honolulu. In addition, Chris Ault's squad is 0-3 in its last three bowl games, and the 'Pack has never won a bowl game by more than seven points in school history.
Take SMU plus the points.
The final top play of the early going has Temple taking on UCLA.
It's been a storybook season for Al Golden and the Temple Owls as they reached the postseason for the first time in 30 years. However, they had one of the easiest schedules in the entire country with just four of the 12 games against teams with winning records.
The Owls went 1-3 in those games with the lone win coming vs. a Navy team that played the majority of the contest without its starting quarterback. Moreover, Temple needed a late touchdown by freshman running back Bernard Pierce to even pick up the victory.
UCLA improved by two games from last season's 4-8 record but if Army had upset Navy a couple of weeks back, the Bruins would be home this postseason. Still, even with the disappointing 6-6 mark, Rick Neuheisel's club will not be taking this game lightly since they are able to play another game, something the team did not accomplish last year.
Both Temple quarterbacks - Chester Stewart and Vaughn Charlton - finished the regular season completing fewer than 50% of their passes and that came against questionable competition. Imagine what will happen when they face a UCLA secondary loaded with the likes of Alterraun Verner and Rahim Moore. Needless to say, it won't be pretty.
Look for the Bruins to take it to Temple early and often as they win this one by at least a touchdown.
Go with UCLA minus the points.
