Bowl Shakedown

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 50-42 (+3.45*)

It?s not the norm for me to pull the trigger days in advance (even if I had a game or two circled in advance), before I?ve first had a chance to digest and rate a full card of games, and then dig for supporting angles, and then wait about a day before trying to take a fresh look by blowing the whole thing up and seeing if it comes out about the same. But this week, it must be that having only a select few games involving teams I?ve been following in matchups I?ve been anticipating is why I didn?t have a lot of pause before deciding, ?that works for me?, and ?that one, too.? Then again, it?s not like I?ve never bought back a play as a game draws closer and I?ve weighed additional facts, developments and respected opinions.

Games played so far, without seeing much distinction in my rating of them from top to bottom:

LSU(-2') (1*)
Oklahoma(-13') (1*)
Miami Ohio(-7) (1*)
Boise State(-10) (1*)

I also jumped early on three NFL games:

Seattle(+1' & +105ML) (1*)
Philadelphia(-5') (1*)
Baltimore(-3') (1*)
- (NFL YTD: 36-35 (-2.76*))

I?ll be out of town for most of Wednesday/Thursday/Friday, but I expect I?ll have some time to contribute a crude angle or three on my way of seeing each of these games before they get started. For starters, you usually hold your breath when backing a team traveling to the Island Paradise, but other than that, what?s not to like?

GL

 

[wareagle]

It kind of looks like vegas has done their job with you taking 4 favs in college. i think you go 2-2 at best FWIW

 

[lostinamerica]

Miami Ohio(-7) over Bowling Green (1*)
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031202/SPORTS03/112020081
After two years of following and capping MAC games at Madjacks, there are three strong initial impressions that haven't faded one bit: (1) Home field is BIG; (2) a defense that imposes its will on an upper division offense is the rarest commodity of all; and (3) hellah is the MAC King . . . It's quaint at best how they chose to rotate the MAC title game by division rather than having teams earn it . . . Bowling Green comes in off a huge effort against Toledo, while Miami cleared its schedule of Senior Day and everything really strenuous a couple of weeks ago, other than this championship game (after being denied and led off in handcuffs by Marshall in their quest last year), although they are being sent packing for a third straight away game . . .BG has been terrific and has the scalps to show for it, but Miami gets my support with an offense that has shown no signs of being reigned in, and a defense that has shown itself quite capable of imposing its will in big games, while amassing impressive statistics in yards, points and turnovers despite lots of garbage time by its opponents. IMO a defense that is sound in design and manned with playmakers won't be whipped when a defender slips at the point of attack on a lousy field . . .The only side for me in this game is expecting the home field will not be enough to check the legacy in MAC football being earned by the 2003 Miami squad. But that's just me.

GL

 

[gman2]

lostinamerica:

god stuff, and good toledo blade link. gl with your plays this weekend.

the only thing i could really add from a bgsu perspective:
* no road team has ever won the mac title game. that speaks volumes about how important home field is in this conference. western michigan was dominant a few yrs ago and lost outright as a 7-pt chalk in marshall. marshall lost as a chalk in toledo as a chalk. home field is the equalizer in the mac
*miami and bgsu's defensive numbers are very similar. theyre 18th/19th in the country in scoring defense. miami slightly better on total defense (by just 15 yds). both teams scheduled well out of conference.

seem to me this is a pretty even game

gl bud

 

[lostinamerica]

gman - Prolific comes to mind. I mean that in a good way - it's all good stuff. Me, I'm slow AND lost. Specifically, just in the MAC, I have no doubt you've forgotten more worthwhile stuff than I'll have learned a year from now.
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Oklahoma(-13') over Kansas State
http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/sports/colleges/kansas_state_university/7426371.htm
(1) Kansas State has found its stride and is playing its best ball of the season. (2) Dangerously peeking ahead, this reasonable spread tells me Oklahoma would likely open as a single digit favorite in the Sugar Bowl, about 8' to 9'? (3) Bob Stoops with two weeks to prepare this squad for a conference title showcase against K State is a very solid play for my tastes.

Boise State(-10) over Hawaii
http://starbulletin.com/2003/12/06/sports/index.html
The valedictory effort by Boise State last week sets them up to seriously underperform in a closer in Paradise this week. That's too bad, because despite their gaudy numbers, I think Boise is a good bit underappreciated as a complete team, and they could take it to a flawed Hawaii team off a chest-thumping win over Alabama. If it gets to the point where this play is at the end and in the middle of some pending parlays, I'll do more than look to hedge this iffy play.

More time and more of an effort is needed to explain my thinking for laying the points with LSU.

GL
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Don't believe everything you think.

 

[lostinamerica]

Final numbers . . .

NCAA YTD: 53-43 (+5.35*)

Next Up: Bowling for Dollar$

GL