Bowl Systems that are money.......

[Dead Money]

Shamelessly borrowed from another site....:0008



I know its early,week 10, but good info lies within....




Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

Play on Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

PLAY THE OVER with Totals of 63.5 or higher
PLAY ON Favs of 3.5 or less



Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

PLAY ON Dogs of 4 points or more
Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:
PLAY AGAINST MAC teams....they are 1-9-1 ATS L11

PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games

PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last yearPlay on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs

 

[namja]

Ok, I'll bookmark this thread for December.

 

[Big G21]

I read this weeks back and was wondering if any games stood out based on the criteria below?

 

[BGFalcon]

If these trends are so readily available, won't the books either dismiss the trend or adjust their lines based on the trend?

 

[WildBillPicks7]

I read this weeks back and was wondering if any games stood out based on the criteria below?

ULL

UCF fav at 6-6 over a 7-5 team and basically a home game

Memphis

Navy getting pts

BC

Vandy

N Texas

Weak Forrest Run

Baylor

N'western

S Carolina

Arkansas

N Carolina

Nebraska

Penn St

Auburn

 

[hawkeye]

BGF said exactly what I was going to say--the books know all this shit

 

[PJ12]

ULL

UCF fav at 6-6 over a 7-5 team and basically a home game

Memphis

Navy getting pts

BC

Vandy

N Texas

Weak Forrest Run

Baylor

N'western

S Carolina

Arkansas

N Carolina

Nebraska

Penn St

Auburn

Nuttin against you WB but Im fading all of these with Wake being the only exception!!
:0074
Lets see how I do :facepalm:

:toast:

 

[Big G21]

ULL

UCF fav at 6-6 over a 7-5 team and basically a home game

Memphis

Navy getting pts

BC

Vandy

N Texas

Weak Forrest Run

Baylor

N'western

S Carolina

Arkansas

N Carolina

Nebraska

Penn St

Auburn

Thx WB

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Nuttin against you WB but Im fading all of these with Wake being the only exception!!
:0074
Lets see how I do :facepalm:

:toast:

PJ, those ain't my plays, those would be using the system DeadMoney posted.

FYI!

PS: I don't use that system, you will lose more than you win by using it and yeah, Like Hawk & BGF stated, Vegas knows the trends, the angles, etc., they put up numbers to get that 50/50 as stated numerous times. Do your homework, use your stats, strength of schedules, your injury reports, weather reports, how far a team travels to the bowl destination, etc., for me I use a simple system and that's to come out ahead!!

Later!

 

[Shake N Bake]

PJ, those ain't my plays, those would be using the system DeadMoney posted.

FYI!

PS: I don't use that system, you will lose more than you win by using it and yeah, Like Hawk & BGF stated, Vegas knows the trends, the angles, etc., they put up numbers to get that 50/50 as stated numerous times. Do your homework, use your stats, strength of schedules, your injury reports, weather reports, how far a team travels to the bowl destination, etc., for me I use a simple system and that's to come out ahead!!

Later!

Then why post it? :mj07:

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).



There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.

1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.

2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.

3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.


Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).

There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.

1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.

3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.

 

[tball]

Then why post it? :mj07:

I read this weeks back and was wondering if any games stood out based on the criteria below?

i thought he was just answering this fellas question

 

[BUCKY1]

:0074. He was.